Polls: Obama 12 Points Or 3 Points Ahead Of McCain?

Two new polls again show how polls can come up with truly contradictory findings. A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg shows Democratic presumptive presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama 12 points ahead of GOP presumptive presidential nominee Sen. John McCain. And a Gallup Daily Tracking poll finds Obama 3 points ahead.

The partisans of each candidate will point to the one that shows their candidate ahead and say that’s the most accurate, and pooh-pooh the other one. But both do have some intriguing (if contradictory) findings.

The Times:

Buoyed by enthusiasm among Democrats and public concern over the economy, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has captured a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) at the opening of the general election campaign for president, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.

In a two-man race between the major party candidates, registered voters chose Obama over McCain by 49% to 37% in the national poll conducted last weekend.

On a four-man ballot including independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, voters chose Obama over McCain by an even larger margin, 48% to 33%.

Obama’s advantage, bigger in this poll than in most other national surveys, appears to stem in large part from his positions on domestic issues. Both Democrats and independent voters say Obama would do a better job than McCain at handling the nation’s economic problems, the public’s top concern.

McCain, on the other hand, is seen more adept at handling terrorism, having more experience — but the main concern now is the economy, and he doesn’t score as well on that increasingly pivotal issue.

The Times also finds:

–McCain suffers from an “enthusiasm gap” and has continued problems with conservative voters. MEANING: This could increase as he continues to try to inch himself away from the Bush administration towards positions that appeal more to independent overs and voters who want a change from current policies. He has problems with his conservative base.
–Obama’s voters are much more enthusiastic, and he scores well among liberal voters.
–The two candidates score equally among white voters. [CAUTIONARY NOTE: Many pollsters and politicos believe people aren't totally honest when asked about attitudes towards race in polling.]
–The vast majority of Clinton voters have opted for Obama, with only 11 percent indicating they’ll vote for McCain.

And there is one bit of very bad news for McCain and the GOP:

Nader, a consumer advocate who ran as the candidate of the Green Party in 2000 and as an independent in 2004, and Barr, a former Georgia congressman, both appear to siphon more votes from McCain than they do from Obama. When Nader and Barr are added to the ballot, they draw most of their support from voters who said they would otherwise vote for the Republican.

Meanwhile, the latest Gallup Daily tracking poll finds the race basically stalled with neither candidate moving the numbers very much, and Obama’s lead essentially a statistical tie. But Gallup’s important conclusion is that, although the Democrats are favored, “McCain is performing well in the national preference polling relative to the general political environment, in part due to his appeal to independents and conservative Democrats.”

A few details:

Voters’ presidential preferences remain closely divided between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, with Obama maintaining a slight edge, 46% to 43% in June 21-23 Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

….The story behind the election numbers is that far more voters associate themselves with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party, most recently by a 14 percentage point margin, 50% to 36% (including independents who lean to either party). The remaining 14% consider themselves to be politically independent and express no partisan leaning. The Democrats have held an average 13-point lead over the Republicans on this measure of party affiliation since the start of Gallup Poll Daily tracking in January.

This is the fifth straight day in the Gallup Daily that neither candidate has had a definitive lead.

Reconcile these two polls — if you can…