Gallup Daily: Obama-McCain Race Returns To Statistical Tie With Obama Only 2 Points Ahead

First we got the “see” (Obama pulling ahead). And now we get the “saw” (a statistical tie). The latest Gallup Daily tracking poll suggests voters are perhaps catching their breaths after months of highly dramatic Presidential primary news with Barack Obama now only 2 percentage points ahead of GOPer John McCain.

What’s going on? The poll is perhaps indicative of a larger trend on the political scene. This week, two radio talk show hosts were heard complaining about the lack of compelling political news this week. Some bloggers report hits are down from what they were earlier this month. It shis one of the valleys in a campaign 2008 filled with towering peaks?

Or is Obama’s support sagging even before the general election campaign has formally begun? Have other issues — the catastrophic floods in Iowa, the shocking death of NBC’s Tim Russert and the tomato scare — relegated the political horse race to second billing?

Or are voters pulling back a bit and taking a new, fresh look at the two presumptive party nominees? Gallup:

Voters are closely divided between Barack Obama and John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted June 12-14, with 44% of national registered voters favoring Obama for president and 42% backing McCain.

Obama had led by as many as seven percentage points in the first few days following Hillary Clinton’s departure from the race. Although the margin between Obama and McCain is now similar to what it was in the last few weeks of the Democratic primary race, the structure of the race looks slightly different than at any other time this year as a result of the relatively high percentage of voters — 15% — not favoring either major-party candidate. This includes 7% of voters who say they are undecided and 8% who say they will not vote for either candidate.

As a result, the percentages of Americans now supporting Obama and McCain are near the lowest seen for either candidate since Gallup Poll Daily tracking on the Obama-McCain matchup started in early March, and well below the high of 48% achieved by each at them at various times.

In other words: a lot of voters are now in a state of flux. Traditionally, voters are said to really start to focus on a Presidential campaign after Labor Day. It’s clear the focus has been a lot earlier — but the focus until now was on a menu of candidates. Now voters can focus on the main two (and perhaps on Libertarian Bob Barr and perennial third party candidate Ralph Nader). And ponder — and that could be what’s going on.

Writes Andrew Sullivan:

A lot of people are understandably taking this caesura in the campaign to reserve judgment on either nominee. This makes sense to me. We’re exhausted from the Clinton-Obama melodrama and the dynamics of a McCain-Obama contest are not yet clear. I find myself wanting to take a few steps back, look at the world again, review the candidates and wait a while before re-engaging too passionately. The situation in Iraq is, for my part, the biggest factor. It’s very fluid and dynamic and different (in largely good ways) than this time last year. This prompts – or should prompt – re-thinking. And when you re-think, you’re not ready to commit to either man yet.

NOTE: When we run these polls every day, please remember (a) polls are like a see-saw, (b) polls are snapshots in time, and (c) not all polls agree.