The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The major shortcoming of the current system of electing the President is that presidential candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or worry about the voter concerns in states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. The reason for this is the winner-take-all rule which awards all of a state's electoral votes to the candidate who gets the most votes in each separate state. Because of this rule, candidates concentrate their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. Two-thirds of the visits and money are focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money goes to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people are merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 18 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, Rhode Island, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

susan

But, perhaps the best one I've seen is http://www.FiveThirtyEight.com. Using polling data, then run 10,000 scenarios through a regression model to come up with realistic percentages to come up with some interesting results (like, 65 of the 10,000 scenarios end up in an electoral tie!, or 21% of the scenarios Obama can win without winning Ohio), and it's updated daily as new information comes available. It also breaks down the estimated win percentage by state.

About a week ago, I sat down, checked out all the various websites, and worked out my own personal list of states. I came up with 39 “safe” states and districts, leading to 207 electoral votes for Obama, 202 for McCain. That left 4 Obama-lean (PA, WI, CO, NM), 4 McCain-lean (VA, MO, IN, ND), and 4 toss-up states

Those four toss-ups? Ohio, Michigan, Nevada…and New Hampshire. Right now, FiveThirtyEight has OH, MI, and NV at a statistical tie – 50/50 they could go either way; and NH at 55/45 McCain. Hmmmm. This could get verrrrry interesting.

But, then again, we are still in our very first week of the general election, with TWENTY more weeks to go. The old saying goes, “Overnight in politics is a lifetime”, and I'm sure we will have a dozen little hiccups and scandals and blowups in the next four months. So — at this point, playing around with all the electoral votes is just speculation. Sure, it's fun, but I wouldn't put too much weight into any of the numbers just yet.

At this moment it seems that no matter how I crunch the numbers, it all boils down to one, big state: Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. Whomever wins the state, wins the presidency. We'll see if that holds true a month from now, two months from now, three months from now. It's going to be a long, long summer; buckle up and hang on!