Will New Hampshire Pick the Next President?

While it is still too early for pollsters to say anything with certainty, a look at the current Rasmussen electoral college predictor shows yet another close election shaping up for this fall. Most, but not all, of the states traditionally considered to be fairly safe or at least “stronly leaning” for each party are lining up as they have in recent presidential races. The two notable exceptions (and they may prove critical to the outcome) are Iowa and New Mexico. Both of these states were carried by George W. Bush in 2004 but are now leaning significantly toward Barack Obama.

Should this current snapshot hold through the fall, the 46 listed states deliver 260 electoral college votes for Obama and 240 for John McCain. As in 2004, the giant among the four remaining toss-up states is Ohio with its 20 electoral votes. As previously noted, in this scenario the Buckeye State would become an absolute must win for McCain. A loss in Ohio would put Obama over the finish line and on his way to the Oval Office without having to consider the remaining three contests. However, in the Democratic primary, Ohio delivered a big win for Hillary Clinton and exit polls indicated it was one of the states where her supporters showed a serious reluctance to supporting Obama’s candidacy. This might be enough to bring McCain the win he needs and keep Ohio in the red column.

However, as shown earlier, Ohio by itself will not finish the job for Senator McCain. He would still need to carry Colorado’s nine votes and either Nevada or New Hampshire. The last data we have for Colorado is about three weeks old, but shows Obama with a slim, six point lead, trending upward from a three point lead the previous month, so clearly Senator McCain has some work to do there. Nevada has been holding steady for a few months with McCain holding an identical six point lead over Obama. This leaves only New Hampshire, once considered relatively safe for the Democrats, (John Kerry held the state in 2004) but now clearly in play. Our data there is also a few weeks old, but Obama was clinging to a five point lead, 48-43.

New Hampshire only has four electoral votes, but in the senario shown above it could hold the key to the election. Obama could afford to actually lose both Ohio and Nevada, but if he held on to Colorado and tiny New Hampshire, he would squeak across the finish line with 273 electoral college votes and the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Much praise has been lavished on Obama’s team for the skillful way they studied and won key districts in the states he carried during the primary, so they will doubtless be paying close attention to these numbers and figuring out how to pull off a win in these battleground states. But this is hardly John McCain’s first trip down the aisle either, and his staff can read an electoral map as well as Obama’s. Expect to see an extra large dose of attention paid to these four states as the summer wears on into fall.