(hope that long link doesn't screw up the comments section!)

mlhradio is correct, though. Today's polls are at best a snapshot of today. Plus, we don't elect presidents by popular vote – it's (unfortunately) all about the electoral college, and where those votes are located.

Plus, I think most people expect there will be a post-nomination “bounce” for Obama in the polls. The McCain campaign says it could be upwards of a 15% margin; the Obama campaign is saying closer to 10% — both are spinning the expectations game.

We've got a long, long summer and fall of campaigning to go — don't get too caught up in the day-to-day changes in the polls. There's the old saying “Overnight is a lifetime in politics”.

But with regards to the poll numbers, I'm not sure about something. Is it an indicator of Obama's strength that after the last few months of Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, Rezco, and the Kitchen Sink Campaign against him that he's still marginally ahead of McCain after McCain's months of relatively unhampered or opposed campaigning? Or is it that the Obama/Clinton drama simply sucked all the air out of McCain's message, not allowing him the attention he needed?

Of course, had he been getting that attention, then perhaps many of the gaffes he's made recently would have received more scrutiny as well.