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Gallup Daily: Obama Takes 6 Percent Lead Over McCain

Posted by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief in Politics.
Jun 9th, 2008 | Comments

Democratic presumptive Presidential nominee Senator Barack Obama has now taken a 6 percent lead over GOP senator John McCain in the latest Gallup Daily tracking poll. A sign of increasing Democratic party unity?

Barack Obama is enjoying a modest bump in support following Hillary Clinton’s exit from the presidential race. The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update finds Obama leading Republican John McCain, 48% to 42%, among registered voters nationwide

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Gallup notes that this poll is definitely progress for McCain:

Obama has consistently held a lead of five to seven percentage points each night since it was reported that Hillary Clinton intended to suspend her campaign. These represent Obama’s strongest showing versus McCain to date in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of registered voters’ presidential election preferences. For much of the time since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in mid-March, McCain and Obama have been in a statistical dead heat.

Rasmussen Reports also finds Obama ahead — and picking up most Democrats but a bit weak on independent voters when running against McCain:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracts 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 50% to 44%. Last Tuesday, just before Obama clinched the nomination, the candidates were tied at 46% . Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Obama a 62.8% chance of winning. Tracking polls are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats and now holds a very modest three-point edge over McCain among unaffiliated voters. Both those figures reflect a significant improvement over the past week. McCain attracts 83% of Republicans Still, 30% of all voters either have no preference at this time or could change their vote before Election Day.

elrod

How is it "definitely progress for McCain?" Did you mean definitely progress for Obama? They were neck and neck (or Obama a little behind) for months and now Obama is up by 6.

Mike_P

I was going to note the same thing as elrod... Typo Joe, or are we missing something?

But with regards to the poll numbers, I'm not sure about something. Is it an indicator of Obama's strength that after the last few months of Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, Rezco, and the Kitchen Sink Campaign against him that he's still marginally ahead of McCain after McCain's months of relatively unhampered or opposed campaigning? Or is it that the Obama/Clinton drama simply sucked all the air out of McCain's message, not allowing him the attention he needed?

Of course, had he been getting that attention, then perhaps many of the gaffes he's made recently would have received more scrutiny as well.

mlhradio

I wouldn't put too much faith into any polls just yet -- we've only *just* entered the general election season, and we are only *just* exiting the shadow of she-who-must-not-be-named. Give the voters a few weeks of "Obama vs. McCain" before they will truly be able to make a slightly-informed opinion.

Plus, I think most people expect there will be a post-nomination "bounce" for Obama in the polls. The McCain campaign says it could be upwards of a 15% margin; the Obama campaign is saying closer to 10% -- both are spinning the expectations game.

We've got a long, long summer and fall of campaigning to go -- don't get too caught up in the day-to-day changes in the polls. There's the old saying "Overnight is a lifetime in politics".

Mike_P

Interestingly, I think I get the answer to my earlier question by probing earlier polls of the two, as reported here on TMV (or by trying to decipher that impossibly shrunken gif above) - Obama has gained 12 points on McCain in just over a month:
http://themoderatevoice.com/politics/primaries/...

(hope that long link doesn't screw up the comments section!)

mlhradio is correct, though. Today's polls are at best a snapshot of today. Plus, we don't elect presidents by popular vote - it's (unfortunately) all about the electoral college, and where those votes are located.

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