Deal, or No Deal

Not well reported in the Israeli press (which is busy covering the Ehud Olmert corruption scandal), but there are indications that a major prisoner swap between Israel and Hezbollah is set to occur sometime in the next few days. The deal will involve a return of Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser — the two IDF soldiers whose capture by Hezbollah in the summer of 2006 sparked the 33-day Hezbollah-Israeli war — in exchange for several Shiite militants and the bodies of several others. Hassan Nasrallah proudly confirmed earlier this week that his “Lebanese brothers” would soon be home.

Yet despite Nasrallah’s bravado about this accord, Hezbollah’s chief didn’t make out as well as he would have liked. The agreement, as its being reported on, only involves the release of Lebanese militants. Demands by the Hezbollah negotiators to include Palestinian, Jordanian and other Arab prisoners in the swap have been repeatedly rebuffed by the Israelis. This outcome is a slap to Nasrallah, who has hoped to position himself as an up-and-coming pan-Arab leader. When Goldwasser and Regev were captured by Hezbollah militants, Nasrallah was believed to have considered this is an opportunity to negotiate a prisoner deal that would involve such heavweights as Marwan Barghouti (the popular Fatah leader and founder of its militant wing), thus establishing himself as a major player in the Palestinian struggle. Moreover, securing the release of other prominent Arab militants, as Nasrallah planned to achieve, would boost his popularity around the region more broadly.

But the details of this accord suggest that the Israeli negotiators were more skilled than their Hezbollah counterparts. While securing the return of Goldwasser and Regev, Israel simultaneously rebuffed Hezbollah’s bid to include non-Lebanese prisoners in the trade, thereby undercutting Nasrallah’s efforts to solidify his position as a prominent pan-Arab leader.