At least since the Obama win in 2008 and probably longer, the Democrats have crowed about how their “ground game” was superior to that of the Republicans and how they were able to mobilize their base and independents who were left leaning to get to the polls on election day. The Democrats have claimed that their mastery of technology compared to the Republicans would be able to get them over the hump when push came to shove, knowing who the people were who were inclined to support Democratic candidates and making sure they got out to vote. Well, it sure doesn’t work for the midterm elections as the recent disaster for the Democrats has shown. [icopyright one button toolbar]
Hubris eventually catches up with you as the Republican electoral machine did with the Democrats this last Election Day. When you have plenty of money, you can hire technology gurus as the Republicans were able to accomplish this cycle. In addition, many young people who are technologically adept seem to be on board with the Republican message, particularly those with libertarian leanings. And the youth vote overall is no longer in the pockets of the Democrats as many young people have been disillusioned by Obama and his inability to fulfill the promises he made as a candidate. Besides attracting more young people, some Republican candidates also increased their appeal to Hispanics, though the majority in both categories still backed Democrats.
Statistics are not yet in in terms of how many people overall voted (and the demographic breakdown of the participants), but early estimates have it as about 36% of eligible voters, one of the lowest totals ever. The number is even lower when you realize that approximately seventy million citizens never registered to vote and therefore were not counted as eligible voters. And as expected for a midterm election, there was less turnout among young people and minorities, even with the Democratic “ground game” pushing them to vote. They just weren’t energized enough.
Senate races in the purple states of North Carolina and Colorado, which went Republican by two percentage points, would have still been in the Democratic column if the latter’s turnout strategy and ground game had worked more efficiently. And some of the other races for the Senate and the governorships might have turned blue. But “Big Data” alone, trying to target specific voters, will not work if there is not sufficient enthusiasm for your party to get your supporters to go to the polls, particularly when the opposition knows all your moves and is trying to blunt your strategy. In addition, Democratic candidates were carrying a heavy burden called Obama which kept many people from casting their ballots. This was a double bind for Democrats, as how do you get African-Americans and other minority voters to show up at the polls when the candidates distanced themselves from President Obama and showed him little respect in an attempt to attract white voters.
In a number of states the Republican strategy also included making it more difficult for supposed Democratic supporters to vote. With the state legislatures and governorships under Republican control, more stringent voter ID laws were passed before the elections to lower minority and hourly worker turnout. How or if these laws affected specific races is not yet clear.
In midterm elections, it’s a problem getting citizens to pay attention to the candidates and the issues when there are no stars on the ballot as occurs during the presidential election years. When you have the presidential heavyweights duking it out on the airwaves for months and months, and during the debates, it’s a lot easier to energize voters of all stripes and get them to vote for candidates on the undercard as well as for the tops of the tickets.
With the technology and data gathering between the two parties now appearing to be more equal,it will be interesting to see who can mobilize more supporters to vote in the 2016 election. The increasing use of absentee and early balloting may also affect the outcome in unknown ways. But it is evident now that having the most and best data on potential voters will not do the job without voter enthusiasm for the party and the candidates.
Resurrecting Democracy
www.robertlevinebooks.com
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Political junkie, Vietnam vet, neurologist- three books on aging and dementia. Book on health care reform in 2009- Shock Therapy for the American Health Care System. Book on the need for a centrist third party- Resurrecting Democracy- A Citizen’s Call for a Centrist Third Party published in 2011. Aging Wisely, published in August 2014 by Rowman and Littlefield. Latest book- The Uninformed Voter published May 2020