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Two of the best and most astute political analysts — Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein — talk about which Republican party we are left with for the next couple of years.
Good question! Monster or blunderer or a combination of the two? Whatever else happens, the internal war will be much fiercer and more of a national spectacle than the hum-drum, “it’s-getting-old,” war with Democrats. And the glee with which Republicans won on November 4th is already being pushed by reality.
Ornstein and Mann tease out the twists and turns — the realities — Republicans are probably not prepared for.
Mitch McConnell is exultant, finally achieving a lifetime goal. The new majority leader will get a wonderful office with a better view of the Mall, a nicer car and the ability to control the agenda on the Senate floor. But he will also get a deeply divided party and a constant headache trying to keep all of his colleagues in town to vote, especially with several of them on the presidential campaign trail, raising cash and appealing to the most extreme elements of the base. …WaPo
Boehner has nothing but trouble ahead with increasing numbers of radicals populating the two-year guest rooms in his house. Yes, they are even more radical than the 2010 group.
And now that they’re in the majority they can expect much harsher klieg lights exposing every misstep and screw-up. The pressure from their legion of Limbaughs to produce showy, radical results will be much greater. Rated only on the entertainment scale, this should be a five-star show for Democrats and the rest of the nation.
McConnell’s hope for a return to the Senate of old will prove an illusion. Just wait until the first time he brings up a bill — say, to approve the Keystone XL pipeline — and Democrats offer a string of amendments designed to embarrass the 24 Republican senators up for reelection in 2016. Before very long, McConnell will be “filling the amendment tree” to protect his colleagues, just as Sen. Harry Reid, his nemesis across the aisle, did. And as Democrats use the filibuster to block the GOP strategy of forcing the president to sign or veto a barrage of bills, McConnell will face pressure to employ his own “nuclear option” and eliminate the filibuster for bills. …WaPo
And maybe worse for Boehner.
… It is a chamber more starkly polarized than before, with fewer loyalists to the Republican leadership and fewer Blue Dog Democrats to step in if there is a vacuum. Boehner is losing allies and party stalwarts, such as Tom Petri of Wisconsin, to retirement. December brings leadership contests; Boehner will survive, but any mainstream desire to come up with a positive health-care reform alternative, immigration legislation or even an infrastructure bill will run into a tea party buzz saw. (Immediately after the election, Boehner moved from conciliation to predicting a House vote against key parts of Obamacare, only emphasizing that tension.) …WaPo
The tension — the battle — of Congress vs. President will be nothing compared to the warfare between a Republican House and a Republican Senate. The dysfunction same to light when the Republicans were simply unable to come up with alternatives to Obamacare. This time around, it’s going to be much, much worse for America.
So what’s left? What could be accomplished? Well, more hearings, more attempts to make trouble for the White House, more nominations blocked.
Mann and Ornstein open their analysis with a question: “So what happens when a party that has defined itself as an insurgent outlier, scornful of compromise and dismissive of the legitimacy of its opposition, actually takes charge in Washington?”
Well, it uses all its time and energy fighting an internal fight rather than actually governing. In the end they’ll have one helluva time trying to find something positive to run on in 2016. Most of their time will be used up trying to defend the party from its latest adherents.
Meanwhile, Obama still can use his executive power to achieve real progress. We’ve come to understand that many hard-right-leaning Republicans — for all their flags and tricorns –barely tolerate democracy. They are perpetual outsiders fighting for respect and the chance to dim democracy’s lights, replace it with a more “orderly,” authoritarian system. They are unable to deal with the ironies of using democracy to win power (but only by using cheating like the gerrymander and vote suppression) and their pain at finding that “orderly” is nice but most Americans are telling them they can take their oligarchs and shove them.
Cross-posted from Prairie Weather
graphic via shutterstock.com