I hope you enjoyed this post. I plan to do some more on Senate/House races as the year progresses.

#1: Agreed- 1 for Dems.
#2: Agreed- 2 for Dems.
#3: (President's Party unopposed nomination process) I'd argue that given the relative swiftness McCain wrapped it up and went on to be “presidential” while the Dems bicker. 2 for Dems and 1 for GOP.
#4: Well… OK, Agreed. 2 for Dems and 2 for GOP.
#5: (Social Unrest) I don't know Allan Lichtman's standard, but you imply that the standard is national civil war. I think given that race is more important in this race (assuming Obama receives the Dem nomination) then I'd say something very similar to the “social unrest” dynamic is happening. But what's also interesting is that this “social unrest” dynamic could also work in the GOP's favor if enough people feel that Obama is threatening them and their way of life enough…. I'd give it to the Dems, assuming that quite a few people will be energized by Obama. 3 for Dems 2 for GOP.
#6: (Major Prez scandal) With Bush's hijacking of the constitution, his signing statements, his “above the law” approach, etc. I'd say that there is a major Prez scandal. 4 for Dems and 2 for GOP.
#7: Agreed. 5 for Dems and 2 for GOP.
#8: Agreed. 6 for Dems and 2 for GOP.
#9: Agreed. 7 for Dems and 2 for GOP.
#10: (Short term economy) I suppose if you MUST follow the technicals, then I'd agree with you. But I prefer to use your “public perception” answer…. and perhaps I wouldn't usually stray on this but I think given the increasing number of foreclosures, that this in effect trumps the traditional standard of Allan Lichtman. The good thing about standards is that there is more objectivity, which is important if you consider the “one man's trash is another man's treasure” idea. Without objectivity one can't evaluate the economy and it's impact on Americans' perceptions (which is why it's important to use economic technicals as the standard). However I think that mortgage mess is unique and there is not the one man's trash is another man's treasure dichotomy. The mortgage mess is hurting everyone- banks are taking write-offs and reevaluations of portfolios, there is a tightening of credit (which hurts banks' profits and consumer spending and probably plays into consumer sentiment if consumers can't get credit to buy what they want). And on the consumer side: many people are losing their homes and others are seeing rising payments due to all those adjustable rate mortgages shoved on them. Well, anyway my point is that the mortgage crises IMO pushes this against the prez. 8 for Dems and 2 for GOP.
#11: (Long term economy) I think this also deserves a slightly different reckoning. I don't know whether Allan Lichtman is concerned about just the past term compared with the two previous terms, or (given Allan Lichtman's first question) if a prez. has been in office for two terms, whether it's the terms (one or two) of the current president v. the two terms of the previous prez(s). Given that Hillary is currently in the race and the emphasis being placed on the economy increasing under her husband (with decreasing deficits) I think it's fair to compare Bush's entire tenure (two terms) with that of his predecessor- Bill Clinton (two terms). I'd put this in the Dems. column. 9 for Dems and 2 for GOP.
#12/13: OK, end result agreed, though I think you have it backwards- I think McCain can get the key for hero and Obama can get the key for charisma. So 10 for Dems and 3 for GOP.