Historical Inquiry: What About Clinton’s Apparent Point?

Something of a media firestorm has greeted Senator Hillary Clinton mentioning the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy following his June, 1968 victory in the California primary.

I, for one, don’t believe that Clinton meant to draw an analogy between Senator Barrack Obama and Bobby Kennedy, insinuating that because the Illinois senator evokes the same sort of passion as Kennedy, he may be an assassin’s target, thereby presumably giving the New York senator reason for staying in the race for this year’s Democratic nomination. There was nothing to be gained by Clinton in making such a connection, especially among Democratic superdelegates, many of whom venerate Kennedy and his older brother, President John F. Kennedy, and, like most Americans, have just been saddened by the news that Senator Edward Kennedy is suffering from cancer. Clinton, in spite of what her many opponents may say, is not evil incarnate. She’s not stupid either.

Clinton’s apparent point was that suggestions that she depart early from the race were, as she put it, “unprecedented.” To buttress her case, she mentioned that her husband didn’t clinch the 1992 Democratic presidential nomination until mid-June.

She then noted that at the time of his death in early June, 1968, Robert Kennedy was still contesting–probably futilely, it should be added–for the Democratic nomination in the California primary. I believe Clinton meant to say that it isn’t outrageous for her to still be in the race in June, 2008.

That may be. But comparing, June, 1968 to June, 2008, is not so much comparing apples to oranges as it is apples to King Kong.

One big difference is that the entire primary season in ‘68 began with New Hampshire’s primary, not on January 3, the date for the campaign-opening Iowa caucuses this year, but on March 12. That’s fully two months and nine days deeper into the calendar than this year.

The California primary, the last of a grand total of thirteen primaries held in 1968, was held on June 5.

Kennedy didn’t even declare his candidacy for President until March 16, 1968, four days after President Lyndon Johnson narrowly defeated anti-Vietnam War senator, Eugene McCarthy, in New Hampshire.

Kennedy therefore, on the night of the California primary, was still a candidate for president little more than three months into his campaign and just three months after the first contest. By contrast, Senator Clinton announced her candidacy on January 22. 2007!

The date of the California primary in 1968 would, if put in an analogous position on ths year’s election calendar, fall on April 3, a date that’s already two-and-a-half months past.

By June 3, 2008, when the Montana and South Dakota primaries end the long round of primaries for this presidential election season, a full six months will have passed since the beginning of the process.

Six months after Robert Kennedy declared for the presidency was September 16, two weeks beyond the traditional Labor Day start of presidential general election campaigns.

Senator Clinton has every right to stay in the race, of course. But her continuing to contest for the nomination in June, 2008 is clearly not the same as Bobby Kennedy remaining in his race in 1968.

An interesting, if unanswerable question, is what Robert Kennedy would do if he were in Hillary Clinton’s position? No one can know. But, as he was fond of telling his presidential campaign handlers when they put too optimistic a spin on his delegate counts and nomination prospects, he had done their job once, back when he’d managed his brother’s 1960 campaign. He knew, he reminded them, how to count.

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