Obama Doesn’t Do As Well As Clinton Against McCain With White Voters

A new Gallup poll says Democratic Senator Barack Obama will not do as well when matched against GOP presumptive Republican Presidential nominee Senator John McCain among white voters as Senator Hillary Clinton would — particularly because he has problems with white women voters:

Barack Obama, the presumed Democratic nominee, will likely enter the general election with more of a handicap among white voters than would have been the case if Hillary Clinton had been the nominee, based mainly on Clinton’s stronger performance among white women.

Gallup found:

–Clinton isn’t ahead of Obama due to her margin among blue collar white voters but due to her margin among white women.
–Obama and Clinton perform exactly the SAME among non-Hispanic white men when pitted against McCain.
–”Clinton’s slight advantage among blue-collar white men is offset by Obama’s advantage among white-collar white men.”
There has been discussion of Obama’s presumed problem among blue-collar white males should he win the Democratic nomination. The current analysis shows that relative to Clinton, however, Obama does not suffer from a large “blue-collar male” deficit as has been hypothesized. Obama loses to McCain in a hypothetical matchup among non-college-educated white men by 25 points, while Clinton loses by 20 points.

Gallup’s conclusion: if Obama is the nominee his problem isn’t entering into the election with a bigger problem among blue collar white men if Clinton headed the the ticket.
The implications? Gallup says:
The bigger issue appears to be Obama’s problems among white women, when compared to how Clinton would perform among this group. Obama loses to McCain by nine points among white women, while Clinton wins by three points. Clinton does better than Obama among both blue-collar and white-collar white women.

All in all, although both Democrats are to a degree handicapped against McCain among white voters, Clinton would perform better than Obama in a general-election matchup among non-Hispanic whites. Combining white voters of both genders, the current analysis shows that McCain wins over Obama among whites, 53% to 38%, and beats Clinton by a considerably smaller 51% to 42% margin.

It is important to note that Obama runs about as well vs. McCain as Clinton does, and both Democrats currently maintain a slight advantage over McCain in general-election trial heats. So any weaker relative performance for Obama vs. McCain among a demographic group (such as white women or lower-educated voters) is made up for by a stronger relative performance among another group (such as blacks or higher-educated voters).
In other words: there is some “nuance” in this poll — and both Democrats have different coalitions.

This “nuance” will likely be left out by strong supporters of both Clinton and Obama as they cite the parts most beneficial to their candidates. It shows both Clinton and Obama will have some work to do — and Obama in particular needs to work on wooing women voters. (SUGGESTION: Saying “Listen, honey, I’ll be a great President!” might be unwise…)