Obama Widens Lead Over Clinton To 16 Percent In Gallup Poll
Should we say “What a difference President George Bush suggesting that Barack Obama wants to appease terrorists makes?” Perhaps we should…
The latest Gallup Daily tracking poll shows the Democratic Illinois Senator widening his lead even more of Democratic party nomination rival Senator Hillary Clinton — from 11 percent to 16 percent. The poll was taken during the time of the bro-ha-ha in which Bush made the controversial suggestion about Obama, GOP presumptive nominee Senator John McCain said Bush had it right, and Obama responded in a speech that slammed both of them and rhetorically sewed Bush to McCain.
And that incident also had another impact: it wiped Clinton almost off the news cycle road map, despite her whopping win over Obama in West Virginia on Tuesday. News buzz about that win was muted a day later when former Democratic nomination contender John Edwards endorsed Obama. The Bush attack, McCain pile on, and Obama response nearly edged Clinton coverage out of several news cycles.
The poll shows a big increase for Obama:
Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds Barack Obama with his largest advantage over Hillary Clinton in Democratic voters’ nomination preferences thus far, 55% to 39%.
Obama’s previous largest lead was 11 percentage points, in May 15-17 and April 12-14 polling. His widening lead over Clinton has been evident in each of the last three days of tracking, after the two had been more closely matched earlier in the month.
Clinton’s largest lead in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking was 20 points in mid-January, when she led Obama 48% to 28% (John Edwards was still in the race at that time).
Tuesday, voters in Kentucky and Oregon will register their preferences for the Democratic nomination. Clinton is expected to win Kentucky and Obama Oregon. There is some speculation that Obama may declare victory given that he is expected to clinch a majority of the delegates available in the state primaries and caucuses (outside of the contested Florida and Michigan primaries). Clinton has vowed to stay in the race until all the primaries and caucuses have been held in early June.
But Gallup has some good news for Clinton and not-so-good news for Obama. She is arguing she is more electable, and the poll does find her to do somewhat better than Obama against McCain — but not enough for her to point to as a dramatic difference:
Despite her growing deficit to Obama in the Democratic race, Clinton continues to poll slightly better than Obama in matchups for the general presidential election vs. John McCain. The latest tracking results, based on May 14-18 polling, shows Clinton with a 48% to 44% lead over McCain among registered voters nationwide, while Obama has just a 1-point edge (46% to 45%) over the likely Republican nominee.
But a cautionary note — as we often leave here on TMV.
One poll does NOT “all polls” make.
Polls do differ. For instance, Rasmussen Reports has a notably different margin:
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 46% to 44% advantage over Clinton nationally…. As noted last Friday, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 46%. The candidates are each favored to win one primary on Tuesday–Clinton in Kentucky and Obama in Oregon. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 92.6% chance of winning the nomination.
