The Conservative Reformation

Ten days ago, Paul Silver tossed a spotlight on a May 9 David Brooks’ column, in which the NYT writer pondered what American conservatives might learn from their British counterparts.

Among other things, Brooks claimed that British conservatives are resurgent today only after paying their dues. They wondered in the wilderness before they could emerge on the other side — chastened and wiser, more in tune with the times. Brooks further suggested that today’s American conservatives (and their disconfigured embodiment in the form of the GOP) have not yet suffered enough, as they blindly cling to dated ideologies and remain steadfastly out-of-touch with the zeitgeist.

Channeling Brooks on the same day his column was published, two other writers riffed on a similar theme.

Reid Wilson:

… though generic congressional ballot questions show Democrats running more than a dozen points ahead of Republicans — the latest survey, from CBS and the New York Times, had it at 18 points, the same gap as before the 2006 elections — the NRCC has been reluctant to admit a national problem.

And Kimberley Strassel:

Republicans face tough odds, yes. But that’s because they’ve yet to prove they’ve learned a lesson …

In short, these writers agree: The Republicans (and conservatives who dominate their ranks) are bound to suffer more defeats and more embarassments before they right their listing ship.

In the 1960’s, it took a relentless thinker named Barry Goldwater to articulate a compelling vision for conservatism. But it wasn’t until 1980 — a generation later, after the domestic disasters of Nixon and the non-Republican Carter — that Ronald Reagan (with his unique brand of B-movie actor charm and appeal) ran and won on Goldwater’s vision.

So if history repeats itself, who, exactly will emerge as the Barry Goldwater of 2008 and the Ronald Reagan of 2028? Whoever they are, I suspect they will articulate and ultimately follow a much different roadmap out of the wilderness.

Up Next: A modest proposal for the next Goldwater’s consideration.