The Ukrainian civil war in the eastern regions is rapidly turning into a skirmish between President Barack Obama and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, instead of advancing towards a truce or peace talks after the missile strike on Malaysian Air flight MH17.
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The stakes are too high to let Ukraine fester in this manner. Putin’s irredentism is luring Obama and the European allies into a trap by denying east Ukraine’s airspace to Kiev’s fighter aircraft and helicopters. This is sinister because it scuttles chances for a Kiev victory over the pro-Russian rebels, thus increasing prospects for a long civil war of attrition that would force the West to become more engaged on Kiev’s side.
Further evidence of Moscow’s meddling came today when rebels shot down two high-flying Ukrainian fighter jets over the east. It confirmed that the rebels have access to anti-aircraft missiles, adding credence to those who accuse the rebels of shooting down flight MH17.
Putin is clearly duplicitous but Obama seems wanting in diplomatic skill. So far, all he has done is to impose sanctions against Moscow and threaten more punishment. He is giving unstinted support to Kiev, as if it shares no blame for the growing civil war and is not using tanks and aircraft against its own citizens in the east.
Obama is also underestimating the pride and nationalism of Russians by behaving as if Putin is a dictator misleading his own people, instead of being a very popular elected President. His legitimacy as a democratic leader falls far short of Obama’s but he is certainly much more popular among his people than Obama is currently among Americans.
Putin is behaving prudently in light of his domestic politics. He is trying to avoid a situation where he might be forced to keep his promise to Russian nationalists that he will use the army if Kiev’s military offensive against rebels takes a heavy toll on Russian-speaking civilians.
By interdicting east Ukraine’s airspace for Kiev’s warplanes, Putin is helping to ensure that bombs from the sky do not wreak havoc over civilians. This is prudent because Kiev does not have air-launched munitions capable of minimizing collateral damage. Most of its inventory consists of outdated Russian ordinance that predates the rise of smart bombs and missiles.
Militants fighting Kiev’s forces in east Ukraine are hiding among civilian populations and using human shields similarly to Israel’s enemies in Gaza and US enemies in the streets of Iraqi and Afghan towns. Kiev’s control over the skies could cause sufficient devastation to force an invasion by Russian troops just to save Putin’s face before his supporters in Russia.
Mistakes by Kiev’s air force are likely because even Israel has not been able to prevent extensive civilian deaths in Gaza, despite having the world’s finest smart missiles and most highly trained operatives. Awesome American smart munitions were also unable to prevent disturbing levels of collateral damage in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Perhaps, Obama has an eye on November’s mid-term elections as he pushes Putin’s back to the wall through sanctions and continuous blame. If so, both Putin and Obama are careening for domestic political reasons towards prolonging hostilities by proxy in east Ukraine.
It would be a grievous misreading of Russian nationalism to think that Putin is the main reason for Russian obstructionism over Ukraine. Even authoritarian Putin would not survive in power if Obama humiliates nationalist Russians by using serious damage to the wider Russian economy as a weapon to defeat Putin in Ukraine. The US has more than enough power to do so but it would trigger prolonged tensions with Russia similar to a Cold War.
It is time now for vigorous White House pressure on Kiev to halt the offensive and sit down with the rebels for serious negotiations. If Putin brings the rebels to the table in good faith, Ukrainians would be saved from potential misery and the world from super power hostility.
If Putin fails because the rebels ignore him, they will turn Putin into an enemy and lose the support of many Russian nationalists. That would be their death knell.
However, Putin may dig in to prevent peace in Ukraine if Obama continues his current threats against Moscow, especially when Germany, Britain and France become as aggressive as the White House desires.
Putin will not countenance defeat before the entire international community at Obama’s hands, so Ukraine might end up being partitioned between east and west.
Perhaps the new West Ukraine would enter the European Union and NATO as a full member but that would surely cause new long-term tensions between Russia and the US-led allies, because Russian nationalists will continue to be a major political force even if Putin were dethroned. The Russian Orthodox Church would also side with the nationalists. All of this is best avoided.