McCain: From 100 Years to Four

Much ado has been made over Sen. John McCain’s previous comments regarding how it would be “fine with him” if American troops were in Iraq for the next 100 years, as well as his subsequent, controversial comparisons between that nation with post-war Germany and Japan. During a recent appearance in Ohio, however, McCain scaled back those plans a bit saying that we may “win” the war in Iraq in the next four years and bring the majority of our troops home.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain said on Thursday he believes the Iraq war can be “won” within four years, leaving a functioning democracy there and allowing most U.S. troops to come home.

McCain, running in the November election to succeed Bush in 2009, described a scenario he thought he could achieve within his first four-year term.

“By January 2013, America has welcomed home most of the servicemen and women who have sacrificed terribly so that America might be secure in her freedom,” McCain said in prepared remarks from a speech he was to deliver in Columbus, Ohio, on Thursday.

“The Iraq war has been won. Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension. Violence still occurs, but it is spasmodic and much reduced,” McCain said.

McCain went on to repeat his previous point that any remaining American troops would only be there to “promote stability” and again compared the hypothetical post-war Iraq with the era immediately following World War Two.

It is an interesting hypothesis, but McCain will still need to determine if it is within the “cost vs. benefit” analysis for the majority of Americans. With U.S. casualties in Iraq spiking back up to 52 in April (up from a low of 29 in February) voters will need to decide if the percived benefit of the victory described will be worth between 1,500 and 2,000 more American troop deaths over that period. (estimate based on current rates.) This will be added to untold additional serious injuries and, of course, the mounting financial cost.

McCain’s comments will also raise additional questions for voters on exactly what the anticipated victory will look like and exactly how it will make us “more secure in our freedom.” The Iraqi government thus far has seemed to be plagued by endemic corruption, internal bickering, and a growing closeness with Iran. Even if a stable democracy is achieved, I believe we need to hear more about precisely how democratic it will be and what influence Iran will have on the nascent democracy.

Further, even assuming an independent, functional democracy in Iraq, how much influence would they have on other countries in the region we percieve as our enemies or the terrorist activity reaching out from those nations? In short, giving Senator McCain the benefit of the doubt and assuming we can achieve this version of victory in Iraq over the next four years, what is it that we will have purchased for the price being paid?

McCain’s proposed vision is a tempting one, and I would be less opposed to the idea of a four year path to real, meaningful victory than a 100 year long war. But I believe the Senator owes it to the voters to provide more specifics on exactly how we will arrive at that victory during his first term as well as providing detailed answers to the questions posed above.