ISIS did not arise de novo in Syria and Iraq. And its supposed military triumphs in Iraq have been due to alliances with some of the indigenous Sunni tribes along with old Baathist organizations who supplied much of the fighting muscle for the Iraqi army. These are secular organizations and not Islamist in their orientation, and at some point conflict between the Baathists and ISIS is inevitable. But ISIS’s recent development and degree of success can be attributed directly to stupidity and negligence on the part of its adversaries who I’ve labeled ASIS, the people who enhanced its growth and aided in the recruitment of new members.
The countries in this charmed circle include Iraq, Syria, the United States, Iran, Russia, Lebanon, and various Sunni Islamic states. Of these, Iraq and the United States must take the major blame for the growth of ISIS. Paul Bremer, the head of the Coalition Provisional Authority under Donald Rumsfeld was the czar who was supposed to put Iraq back on the right track from 2003 to 2004. Instead, Bremer’s actions insured that further conflict was inevitable and that the Shiites and Sunnis would be battling it out for control of Iraq. Ruling by decree, Bremer banned the Baath Party and outlawed its members, in addition to dismantling the Iraqi Army, essentially disenfranchising a good part of the Iraqi middle class. Baath Party members could not get government jobs they previously held or find new administrative positions. And the Iraqi Army, instead of becoming an American ally being paid with U.S. funds, became an adversary of the U.S. and the Iraqi Shiite government, seeing no advantage in forging an alliance with these groups.
When the U.S. exited Iraq, the Shiite leadership under Malaki did whatever was possible to alienate the old Baathists and the indigenous Sunni tribes that the U.S. had used in their awakening program to fight the Islamist foes. As secularists, the Baathists and the Sunni tribes were natural enemies of ISIS and the Islamists, and would have helped bind Iraq together. However, Malaki and his advisors were unwilling to forge any deals with the Sunnis, following the recommendations of the Iranians instead of American suggestions. Iraq under Malaki has been among the biggest ASIS in his unwillingness to negotiate with the Sunnis and Kurds and make Iraq into a state with a political foundation instead of using the Shiite religion as the glue of the state and excluding all other groups. Iran’s hands can certainly be seen in this move.
Syria’s role was to exclude Sunnis from government and to have Alawites and Shiites as the ruling classes. Naturally, this alienated the majority Sunnis and galvanized them to fight against Assad and his military forces, bringing ISIS and foreign fighters in for assistance. This turned what should have been a political war into a religious one, making the possibility of a settlement much more difficult. Hundreds of thousands of Syrian civilians have been killed by the forces on both sides, with the battles continuing and no signs yet of a clear-cut victor.
The Russians have been ASIS by providing the Syrians with weapons and military support, and being unwilling to negotiate a reasonable truce and peace pact between the two sides. The Syrians could not function without Russian support and arms, and if the Russians were willing to support a truce, it would occur quickly.
The Iranians have been ASIS by also supporting Assad and the Alawites, providing them with fighters and trainers, as well as armaments. Iranian intervention has helped make this into more of a religious war than a political conflict.
Similarly, Lebanon’s entry into the war with Hezbolah on the side of Assad has solidified this as a religious battle between the Shiites and the Sunnis for control of Syria and now Iraq. ISIS is touting its victories and using them to recruit more jihadists to its side, making the war bloodier and increasing the number of casualties. The Sunni Gulf States have aided in recruitment and provided ISIS with funds so they are able to continue to fight against the Shiites and Alawites.
With religion now driving the two sides in the war in Iraq and Syria, the chances for a peaceful solution appears remote. The best chance lies with the secular Baathists and Sunni tribes in Iraq who are an excellent fighting force switching sides. They are also pragmatic and do not want to ally themselves with Islamist ISIS. Whether this will occur, is a matter of conjecture and time.
Resurrecting Democracy
www.robertlevinebooks.com
Political junkie, Vietnam vet, neurologist- three books on aging and dementia. Book on health care reform in 2009- Shock Therapy for the American Health Care System. Book on the need for a centrist third party- Resurrecting Democracy- A Citizen’s Call for a Centrist Third Party published in 2011. Aging Wisely, published in August 2014 by Rowman and Littlefield. Latest book- The Uninformed Voter published May 2020