Comments on: North Carolina Democratic Primary Poll Predictions: Is Obama Poised To Lose, Barely Survive Or Win By Double Digits? http://themoderatevoice.com/19386/north-carolina-democratic-primary-poll-predictions-is-obama-poised-to-lose-barely-survive-or-win-by-double-digits/ An Internet hub with domestic and international news, analysis, original reporting, and popular features from the left, center, indies, centrists, moderates, and right Mon, 28 May 2012 18:13:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.2 By: elrod http://themoderatevoice.com/19386/north-carolina-democratic-primary-poll-predictions-is-obama-poised-to-lose-barely-survive-or-win-by-double-digits/comment-page-1/#comment-136180 elrod Tue, 06 May 2008 04:37:36 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/politics/democratic-party/19386/north-carolina-democratic-primary-poll-predictions-is-obama-poised-to-lose-barely-survive-or-win-by-double-digits/#comment-136180 Early votes are over 40% black in NC. Most polls expect blacks to be 33% of total votes at most. That's why the polls are underestimating Obama in the South. <br><br>You could even take the SUSA number for Hillary and give all undecideds to Obama and have him win by 10 points. Early votes are over 40% black in NC. Most polls expect blacks to be 33% of total votes at most. That's why the polls are underestimating Obama in the South.

You could even take the SUSA number for Hillary and give all undecideds to Obama and have him win by 10 points.

]]> By: mlhradio http://themoderatevoice.com/19386/north-carolina-democratic-primary-poll-predictions-is-obama-poised-to-lose-barely-survive-or-win-by-double-digits/comment-page-1/#comment-136178 mlhradio Tue, 06 May 2008 03:50:59 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/politics/democratic-party/19386/north-carolina-democratic-primary-poll-predictions-is-obama-poised-to-lose-barely-survive-or-win-by-double-digits/#comment-136178 Opinions and predictions have been all over the board - I've heard plenty of perfectly reasonable experts express the widest range of opinions possible on Indiana and North Carolina -- just like they did two weeks ago.<br><br>Honestly, this election has been so totally crazy, I'm prepared for *any* result, from a Clinton stunner to an Obama blow-out. At this time 24 hours from now, we'll all be glued to our TV sets watching the spin doctors do their dirty work.<br><br>About the only thing that I *know* for absolute certain is this: No matter what the result, the Clintons will be doing their absolute hardest to spin the win/loss/tie to their advantage. And, of course, the Obama campaign will be doing the exact same thing. And the campaign moves on to West Virginia and Kentucky and Oregon, (although with less on-ground intensity as the fight shifts to the superdelegates and MI/FL controversy, since the number of delegates available in the back rooms outweighs all the remaining pledge delegate races, as MSNBC pointed out).<br><br>It's not so much *what* the results out of North Carolina and Indiana are. Win, lose, tie -- who cares? What matters is how hard you can spin those results to yoru advantage.<br><br>(PS My prediction, for what it's worth: Clinton by 12 in Indiana, Obama by 5 in North Carolina, both of which are more Obama-pessimistic than most of the pundits are predicting. And I'm totally prepared to be completely wrong.) Opinions and predictions have been all over the board – I've heard plenty of perfectly reasonable experts express the widest range of opinions possible on Indiana and North Carolina — just like they did two weeks ago.

Honestly, this election has been so totally crazy, I'm prepared for *any* result, from a Clinton stunner to an Obama blow-out. At this time 24 hours from now, we'll all be glued to our TV sets watching the spin doctors do their dirty work.

About the only thing that I *know* for absolute certain is this: No matter what the result, the Clintons will be doing their absolute hardest to spin the win/loss/tie to their advantage. And, of course, the Obama campaign will be doing the exact same thing. And the campaign moves on to West Virginia and Kentucky and Oregon, (although with less on-ground intensity as the fight shifts to the superdelegates and MI/FL controversy, since the number of delegates available in the back rooms outweighs all the remaining pledge delegate races, as MSNBC pointed out).

It's not so much *what* the results out of North Carolina and Indiana are. Win, lose, tie — who cares? What matters is how hard you can spin those results to yoru advantage.

(PS My prediction, for what it's worth: Clinton by 12 in Indiana, Obama by 5 in North Carolina, both of which are more Obama-pessimistic than most of the pundits are predicting. And I'm totally prepared to be completely wrong.)

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