Comments on: Polls: Is Barack Obama Poised To Lose North Carolina Democratic Primary? (UPDATED)

By: Vashkan

Vashkan — Fri, 02 May 2008 19:18:03 +0000

What looms large to me at this Rorschach moment, is the consistent damage being done to the Democratic chances in November. What should be a fait' a compli' for the party is beginning to look like one of the most epic shocking collapses in the history of the two party system. In no way, shape or form should a Republican be capable of retaking the White House in this climate. And yet, here we are, with McCain inching ever so slightly neck and neck and the automatonish right poised to leave their homes on that November Tuesday and rubber stamp another 4 to 8. Literally unthinkable.
Howard Dean should be enshrined as a GOP messiah.

By: ohio news network

ohio news network — Fri, 02 May 2008 17:03:08 +0000

[...] [...]

By: My new WordPress MU Site » Blog Archive » Polls: Is Barack Obama Poised To Lose North Carolina Democratic …

Fri, 02 May 2008 10:55:34 +0000

[...] Sean Wilentz wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptA bevy of new national polls, plus surveys in Indiana and North Carolina — which hold key primaries on Tuesday — suggest that Hillary Clinton is closing the gap since her campaign-saving victory in Pennsylvania last week, and that the … [...]

By: test » Blog Archive » Polls: Is Barack Obama Poised To Lose North Carolina Democratic …

Fri, 02 May 2008 09:10:40 +0000

[...] Is Barack Obama Poised To Lose North Carolina Democratic … Sean Wilentz wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptA bevy of new national polls, plus [...]

By: daveinboca

daveinboca — Fri, 02 May 2008 05:57:01 +0000

Either Pew or Gallup noted that 6% of the Democrats polled want neither Obama nor Hillary—-back in March that figure was 0%.

A cloud no bigger than a man's hand? And remember that “Bradley Effect” is consistently overlooked in polling. If Hillary wins in both IN & NC, white flight will be the biggest factor the Dems will have to consider.

By: DLS

DLS — Thu, 01 May 2008 20:08:11 +0000

Obama's Image Slips, His Lead Over Clinton Disappears

“Democratic voters are not as positive about Barack Obama as they were a month ago. Somewhat smaller percentages of Democrats describe Obama in favorable terms, and he has lost his lead over Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination. Nationally, Democratic voters are about evenly divided between Obama and Clinton; Obama holds a slight 47% to 45% edge. In late March, the Illinois senator held a 49% to 39% lead over his New York rival. … The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press was conducted April 23-27, before the appearance by Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama's controversial former pastor, at the National Press Club. …”

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?Re...

By: Superdelegate » Blog Archive » Polls: Is Barack Obama Poised To Lose North Carolina Democratic Primary? (UPDATED)

Thu, 01 May 2008 19:32:28 +0000

[...] The Moderate Voice – Domestic and international news analysis, irreverent comments, original reporti… wrote an interesting post today on Polls: Is Barack Obama Poised To Lose North Carolina Democratic Primary? (UPDATED)Here’s a quick excerpt For months it has been a “given” that Democratic Senator Barack Obama was way ahead in North Carolina — in some cases by double digits in the polls — and that rival Senator Hillary Clinton didn’t have much of a chance to win the state’s Democratic Presidential primary, and create eleventh hour “Big Mo” in their battle for the Democratic presidential nomination. New polls suggest it may now be time to retire that “given.” What’s going on among the Democrats now clearly is on two levels: the v [...]

By: aba23

aba23 — Thu, 01 May 2008 19:28:04 +0000

There's one other contributor to the three mentioned in the post–perhaps the most important of all and that's the media's role in framing the narrative, exaggerating its contours and its implications, and positively relishing in the narrowing effects on the race. It is, of course, useless to believe that in the aggregate they would ever act in any other way.

Be that all as it may, with respect to polls one should look at trends, as suggested, not individual results. The current polls reflect a proximate response to overwhelmingly negative publicity. Should Senator Obama have the misfortune of a continuation of this brand of media saturation on primary day, he may well be in for a rough night. But what matters more is long-term trends, and if you take a step back to look at the real trend lines over the entire course of this race, you will see a much different picture–one that puts recent events in a more complete context. What is up for grabs in these remaining Democratic contests is a relatively small cohort of undecided voters and, more importantly given where the candidates are, the undeclared superdelegates.