Polls: Is Barack Obama Poised To Lose North Carolina Democratic Primary? (UPDATED)

For months it has been a “given” that Senator Barack Obama was way ahead in North Carolina — in some cases by double-digits in the polls — and that rival Senator Hillary Clinton didn’t have much of a chance to win the state’s Democratic Presidential primary, and create eleventh hour “Big Mo” in their battle for the Democratic presidential nomination. New polls suggest it may now be time to retire that “given.”

What’s going on among the Democrats now clearly is on two levels: the votes and the primaries on one level and the appeal to decision-solidifying Superdelegates on another. The political context is changing rapidly for Obama and not to his advantage.

Obama has a big problem: the latest Rasmussen Poll gives Clinton a two point lead — but indicates a TEN POINT DROP in Obama’s polling since Obama’s former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright’s press conference.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the Wright impact is especially evident. Clinton now has a statistically insignificant two-point edge over Obama, 46% to 44%. However, that represents a ten-point swing since Wright’s press conference. Before Pastor Wright appeared at the National Press Club, Obama led Clinton by eight points.

In Indiana, Clinton leads Obama by five points. In North Carolina Obama leads. Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama continues to be the favorite for the Democratic nomination, but expectations have slipped significantly in recent days. Currently, the frontrunner is given a 74.4% chance of winning.

Obama’s problem is now this: a slew of polls show a Clinton surge, the Boston Globe reports:

A bevy of new national polls, plus surveys in Indiana and North Carolina — which hold key primaries on Tuesday — suggest that Hillary Clinton is closing the gap since her campaign-saving victory in Pennsylvania last week, and that the controversies dogging Barack Obama are having an impact.

In a national Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, Clinton leads Obama 44 percent to 41 percent. The Illinois senator is viewed unfavorably by 42 percent of all voters, up 9 percentage points since February. Clinton’s unfavorable rating is still slightly higher than Obama’s, but it has dropped slightly. And by 10 percentage points, Democrats now view Clinton as likelier than Obama to beat presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. Democrats gave Obama a 4-point edge last month.

The Clinton campaign’s strategy to raise doubts about Obama’s electability is clearly succeeding, but not only due to the two Clintons’ at-times-Rovian-style negative campaigning. Three other contributing factors are Obama’s political bungles, his former Pastor’s insistence on a controversial high profile that sucks the air out of Obama’s daily media coverage, and Clinton’s increasing enthusiasm as a campaigner (which many analysts are noting). The Globe continues:

In a national NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, Obama’s lead has narrowed to 46 percent to 43 percent, and his unfavorable ratings have also risen. In March, 51 percent of voters viewed him positively and 28 percent saw him negatively, but in the new poll 46 percent view him favorably, but 37 percent negatively.

In a national New York Times/CBS poll, Obama leads 46 percent to 38 percent among Democrats, but 51 percent say they believe he will be the eventual nominee, down from 69 percent a month ago. And 48 percent of Democratic primary voters said they believe he would be the strongest candidate against McCain, down from 56 percent a month ago.

And in a Quinnipiac University poll, Clinton runs stronger than Obama in match-ups against McCain in the general election swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Clinton would get 49 percent to McCain’s 41 percent in Florida, leads 48 percent to 38 percent in Ohio, and 51 percent to 37 percent in Pennsylvania.

It’s clear that Obama knows he has a problem.

This morning he went on the Today Show (VIDEO HERE) with his wife Michelle — a husband-wife damage control appearance that was reminiscent of when then-Governor Bill Clinton went on 60 Minutes with Hillary Clinton in 1992 to be grilled by Steve Kroft amid allegations of (pre-Oval office) infidelity.

Last night Michelle Obama went on CNN. And on Sunday Obama will enter the Lion’s Den and be on “Meet The Press” with gotcha! journalist Tim Russert.

But Obama’s immediate concern is likely North Carolina. The vibes coming from polls aren’t good ones. And, if he loses there, the ugly and divisive Democratic party race will likely get uglier and more divisive as Clinton moves in for the political kill and Obama pulls out all stops to stabilize his campaign.

Once again — as in all polling — polls are contradictory but this one should be of intense concern to the Obama campaign:

A survey of 571 registered likely voters in North Carolina’s May 6 Democratic primary shows Sen. Hillary Clinton having moved from a double digit deficit in an InsiderAdvantage poll taken in mid-April to a two point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in this telephone survey, conducted April 29. The survey was weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8%

The results were:

Hillary Clinton: 44%
Barack Obama: 42%
Undecided: 14%

Prior to his appearance on Fox News Network’s “Hannity & Colmes,” on which the poll was released, InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery noted: “The shift has come almost entirely from white voters age 45 and over. There was a small drift of African-Americans back towards Clinton, but not so significant as to establish any trend.

“I believe when all is said and done, Obama will likely carry North Carolina; or if he loses the race, it will be by just a few points.

“Our polling generally does not indicate the eventual compression of black voters that Obama usually enjoys just before Election Day. If that happens, my guess is that he will pull this out. However, this poll is clearly an indication of reaction to the latest statements by his former pastor; and it forces Sen. Obama to split resources between Indiana and North Carolina.”

Even with the pollster’s hedge, the bottom line is that this is awful news for the Obama campaign. Narrowing polls are one thing in NC; Clinton pulling ahead is another. Perception helps sculpt reality. And news stories down the line show an Obama campaign that is on the defensive and a Clinton campaign that is taking advantage of it…and the polls show some results.
A WRAL news poll doesn’t show Clinton ahead — but, once again, the TRENDING in the polls is clear:

A WRAL news poll released Wednesday shows Barack Obama’s double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton among Tar heel Democrats is eroding.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. surveyed 400 likely Democratic voters Monday and Tuesday. The results show Obama with a 7 point lead over Clinton, with 9 percent undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

“Right or wrong, it’s the Wright phenomenon for Obama,” said David McLennan, a political science professor at Peace College.

McLennan said Obama’s former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, is dragging down the Illinois senator. Wright has made comments such as suggesting that the AIDS virus was invented by the government to destroy “people of color.”

“It is a media-driven story. Wright is very controversial. He makes controversial statements. He gets people fired up, but it’s not one of the top issues in the polls,” McLennan said.

Note again that polls are all over the place — and for confirmation of this, GO HERE to Pollster.com and see the graph of various polls. Obama partisans will say “Well, those polls are flawed because others show him well ahead!” Clinton partisans will pooh-pooh polls showing Obama in the lead, say they don’t count and point to the one showing Clinton ahead. But it is the trending of recent polls that needs to be watched — even though the graph that charts various polls shows Obama ahead.

THE BOTTOM LINE FACT: Both campaigns will have to pull-out-all-stops for the political ground war. An Obama win in NC would give him a cushion against his broken momentum and Clinton’s likely win in Indiana. A Clinton win in North Carolina would be considered an upset and ensure a tooth-and-nail battle right up to the convention and bolster Clinton’s argument that Obama has some electability problems, even though she has some of her own.

In reality, both Democratic candidates increasingly seem to be damaged political goods, but McCain is burdened with his anchor-like tie to President George W. Bush — a tie that could become increasingly toxic once the Democrats stop politically disemboweling each other and turn their focus instead on the Republican candidate. McCain’s Bush ties are a bigger sticking point with voters than Obama’s relationship with his pastor.

HERE’S A CROSS SECTION OF WEBLOG OPINION ON THE POLLS:

–Andrew Sullivan:

Signs of tightening. Jeremiah Wright should get it over with and endorse Hillary. The next week will indeed show if this hole in the road for Obama has stalled him in the very final stretch…. I cannot see how Obama can be denied at this point; but I do think that mounting pressure for a unity Obama-Clinton ticket may be the consequence.

–Chris Bowers:

The most likely outcome now appears to be the most annoying outcome. Clinton will probably win Indiana narrowly, by 4-5%, and pick up either two or four delegates in the process. Obama will probably win North Carolina by single digits, and pick up nine delegates or so. Overall, this will give Clinton the CW justification to keep going, even though Obama will net delegates on the night, and in fact have netted pledged delegates from March 4th through May 6th. Further, the Obama margins will be close enough that the Clinton camp will claim they lead in the popular vote, even though that just isn’t true.

I would prefer a sweep by one candidate or the other on May 6th, which would serve as a pretty severe blow no matter who landed it. This is particularly the case for Obama, since he is winning and because the established media is basically demanding a Clinton Indiana victory in order for them to keep covering her seriously. However, if Clinton sweeps North Carolina, it is going to be a pretty bad stretch for him coming up, and with only negative momentum. If he loses North Carolina, it is possible he will lose every single state the rest of the way, which will cause real problems for him in winning the nomination. If Clinton sweeps the rest of the states, look for her to start performing much, much better against McCain than Obama, and possibly for some superdelegate defections.

–Talk Left’s Big Tent Democrat:

Obama needs to beat Clinton, not have the Superdelegates drive Clinton from the race. It will make him look weak.

–Wizbang:

What an amazing election season this has turned out to be. We may all get to see a brokered convention — with 24 hour cable news and blog coverage, no less. For the first time in my adult life, North Carolina matters in a presidential primary. We’ve gotten visits from the candidates and their spouses and their kids, we got an incredible amount of media attention last week over the NC GOP ad featuring Jeremiah Wright, and now it looks like we might even get to see a pretty decent contest here to boot. Nothing could be finer than to be in Carolina next Tuesday.

–Mark Ambinder:

Showing Hillary Clinton with a two-point lead? The Obama campaign is very skeptical, but, for what it’s worth, so is the Clinton campaign. Mason-Dixon’s latest numbers — Obama has a seven point lead — are seen as more of an accurate snapshot of where that race is.

AN OBVIOUS question about the Insider Advantage numbers is that Obama receives only 65% of the black vote in the sample; also, blacks tend to make up about 40% of the SC electorate – they’re 37% of the early voters — and yet they’re 25% of the electorate in the IA poll.

–Mark Nickolas:

By my rough approximation, Obama looks to come out of North Carolina with a 15 to 20 net delegate advantage, which would more than erase the net of about 10 that Clinton got out of Pennsylvania.

Again, it’s all about the math right now. Nothing more.

One last math item: It seems reasonable that Clinton will come out of Indiana with a delegate advantage of about 38 to 34, while Obama’s North Carolina advantage will be about 66 to 49. If that’s the case, Obama’s overall delegate lead after next Tuesday will be 1,837 to 1,689, and he will be just 188 delegates away from the nomination, with seven contests to go and about 300 superdelegates still undecided. I suspect he’ll hit 2,025 even before June 3rd…

–Ed Morrissey:

The key will be to see how Obama’s repudiation of Wright plays in the state. Will it win him some white, working-class voters whom Wright had offended with his remarks? Or was that damage already done, and will the repudiation cause a deflation in the enthusiasm generated by African-American voters?

A loss in North Carolina will give Hillary an opportunity to run the table straight through to the convention, with perhaps only Oregon lining up against her. It will also underscore her argument that Obama peaked too early and has lost momentum and support, and that superdelegates should go with the hot hand. Hillary could even make an argument that a decent showing among black voters in North Carolina could indicate that their critical bloc will not bolt the Democratic Party if Obama loses the nomination at the convention.

THIS IS BEING ADDED AND EDITED NOW. WHEN THIS VANISHES THE ROUNDUP WILL BE COMPLETE

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THIS IS BEING ADDED AND EDITED NOW. WHEN THIS VANISHES THE ROUNDUP WILL BE COMPLETE