[box type=”shadow”]As Political Wire reports, yesterday GWU poll shows Democrats in good shape for the November 2014 elections, a tie at 43% each. The data show the hard results of the poll, but the analyses of the poll done by each of the two parties’ political analysts are perhaps more telling in their grasp of reality.
The Republicans tend to tiptoe around the data, focusing instead on Obama’s rating of 43% and the President’s apparent pessimism about the November outcome. But the President isn’t running. Members of Congress — who are detested pretty much across the board by now — are the guys with their necks on the chopping block now.
… As we began to comb over the detailed crosstabs Friday morning, the data seemed to match up with the headlines from President Obama’s speech the night before, quoting the President as saying that Democrats tend to “get clobbered” in midterm elections. Certainly there was a lot in the data that would confirm that that may well be the case in the 2014 Midterm elections. Vote intensity of self-identified Republican voters is back up to a seven-point lead over Democratic voters (the lead is 11-points with behavioral Republican voters), by a 64% to 28% margin voters say the direction of the country is off on the wrong track (“strongly” off on the wrong track now runs over 4 to 1 negative), both the President’s image and job approval continue to be upside down, his job approval continuing to run at a historically high 1.7 to 1 ratio on strongly disapprove to strongly approve, and the generic Congressional ballot running even. In addition, among the 60% of the respondents who say they are extremely likely to vote, Republicans lead on the generic Congressional ballot by five points (45% to 40%). …
Call me a librul dreamer, but the Democratic response seems more to the point.
… With the 2014 elections just over six months away, the midterms remain very tightly matched. In this most recent Battleground poll, Democrats have closed January’s 2?point deficit on the generic congressional ballot, and are now running neck and neck with Republican candidates nationally (43% Republican, 43% Democrat, 14% undecided). This dynamic, among other factors, substantiates the argument that the Democrats are competitively positioned for 2014, despite the gloomy conventional wisdom about the Party’s chances. The Democrats enjoy double?digit advantages on key issues, including standing up for the middle class, representing middle class values, Social Security, and Medicare. Voters also see the Democrats as better when it comes to solving problems and the Party remains competitive on jobs, the economy, and even taxes. The data also reinforce the notion that congressional Democrats are making progress shifting out of a defensive posture on health care, both as the White House goes on an aggressive—and so far successful—full court press to encourage new signups, and as Americans increasingly come to see through the Obamacare spin and understand the benefits of the new law. Moreover, we see in this study evidence that Democrats’ efforts to define the elections around populist economic issues—raising the minimum wage, ensuring equal pay for working women, and strengthening the safety net of Social Security and Medicare—are finding traction among the 2014 electorate. …
The Dems made a poor showing, at least here in Texas, when it came to voting in the primaries a couple of weeks ago. But it may not be merely optimistic to believe that increasing security in the matter of health insurance will act as a game-changer for many voters as the opportunities of Obamacare become more familiar to voters seven months from now.