The Generation Gap
During a season when most all readings of tea leaves and chicken entrails have spoken of gloom and doom for the Republican party (none of which explain how John McCain seems to be doing so well) yet another factoid is being dumped on the log jam of bad news. There seems to be a generation gap in younger, up and coming voters which shows them skewing heavily toward the Democratic party.
the gap between Dem and GOP party identification is greater today than at any point since the vanguard of the Reagan revolution, when Republicans held a double-digit advantage. Researchers at Pew have put a decade’s worth of data through their analytical minds and come to the conclusion that the leading edge of the Democratic edge is among young voters.
Among voters ages 18 to 29, in 1992 the split was 47 to 46 in favor of the Republicans. Today, Pew Research is showing that same demographic as breaking 58 to 33 in favor of the Democrats. Conventional “wisdom” tells us, though, that younger people tend to be more liberal but as they age, they grow more conservative and drift to the GOP. How do the figures fit in with that theory?
A potential objection: that old canard, that young people are liberal and become more conservative? The historical data doesn’t support it. When Bill Clinton was elected, a plurality of people under 30 identified themselves as Republicans. Same thing when Ronald Reagan was elected.
Well, this isn’t the first time that something “everybody knows” has come into question. But the future is always in flux, and I know that my attitudes and opinins have changed over the years. Will any of this result in significant advantages for the Democrats? Only time will tell, but the Dems have, in the past, shown a remarkable ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Politically, today’s cohort of 18-to-29 year olds came of age during the Bush presidency. It has turned them into Democrats.
10 Responses to “The Generation Gap”
It is one of the main reasons that the Republican party will soon be irrelevant to the poltical process. The 20 somethings are the least white of any demogrpahic group. That alone means the Republicans have little change of getting any of them to switch. Second, all they can remember is the failures of the Bush Administration and the destruction of the Republican Brand means that they do not see the idea of conservatism as something that is relevant.
Most of them are examples of what I believe are big government libertarians. They want a large government to give them college money, government jobs, and grants for NGO work but they want the government to leave them alone when it comes to drugs, sex, personal relationships. They want to make their own choices and when they make bad choices, they want the government to pick up the pieces. I also believe that personal corruption will greatly increase in the near future. Most of the 20 somethings have been through the large, inpersonal schools, universities, employers. They realize that institutions are something that have to be avoid and worked around instead of worked with. Thus, the idea of paying taxes, getting licenses, etc will greatly decrease.
A political pitch of individualism and responsibility will never work with the 20 somethings. That is why the U.S. will soon be a one party state and the hard fought elections will be in the Democratic Primary over which special interest group gets the most spent on it.
The interesting thing to note about Ambinder's chart is it shows a gradual shift in party affiliation among 18-29 year olds in the 16 years rom 1992-2008. It is not a wholesale shift that can be attributed solely to the Bush Administration or the War in Iraq. This is a real generational gap that bodes well for the future of the Democratic party.
My take on this is that the Republicans overreached after they gained control of the house in 1994. The Republican Party began to be dominated by social and foreign policy conservatives in a way that reduced their appeal amongst this next generation. Young fiscal conservatives and moderates had no where to go except he Democratic party.
enh124, Youn fiscal conservatives have nowhere to go. I doubt that the party of Robert Byrd and Maxine Waters is the place for white , middle class libertarians leaning fiscal conservatives. They will just have to find ways outside of politicians to affect changes. That is why I believe that corruption will increase. If you cannot find politicains to lower your taxees or ease off on regulations, you will find ways to do it yourself such as ignoring zoning laws, cheating on taxes, or ignoring permitting requirements.
Fiscal conservatives haven't had anywhere to go, but the likes of Robert Rubin have shown us that Democrats are willing to accept fiscal conservatism. The Gas Tax Holiday is an issue I will watch closely. McCain and Clinon are demagoguing it, pandering for political votes. From a fiscally conservative point of view it makes zero sense. Obama recognizes this and is standing pat. Let's see how this develops.
enh124,
The only reason that the Clinton Administration can claim to be fiscal conservatives is that the Republican Congress was not about to pass any Clinton initiatives. Given that virtually all of the budget cuts in the Clinton Administration came defense spending cuts and that tax revenue increase due to the dot.com bubble, it is hard to argue that the Democratic Party are not fiscal conservatives. Look at the new entitlements that Senator's Clinton and Obama are proposing. They will result in trillions of new spending.
“Politically, today’s cohort of 18-to-29 year olds came of age during the Bush presidency. It has turned them into Democrats.”
A lot of logic is in dire need here! Since when have 18-to-29-year-olds, coming of age at any time, _failed_ to become Democrats (or at least to vote Democratic while they called themselves “independents,” or in later years, “moderates”) rather than Republicans? The youth are naive, well-left-leaning, idealistic and unrealistic, and have come of age for decades now under an entitlement mentality and viewing government as their parent as well as political weapon. Since when have 18-to-29-year-olds, coming of age at any time, _failed_ to become Democrats?
“My take on this is that the Republicans overreached after they gained control of the house in 1994. The Republican Party began to be dominated by social and foreign policy conservatives in a way that reduced their appeal amongst this next generation. Young fiscal conservatives and moderates had no where to go except he Democratic party.”
Fiscal conservatives don't ever seek the Democratic Party on the basis of fiscal conservatism! It's the Democratic Party that's the engineer in this country of the massive welfare state and constellation of entitlements. What happened after the 1994 elections was that the Clintons, who went far too to the left, and the Democrats were corrected and warned, and for a few years there were instances of where the Clintons and the Democrats had to concede to reality, but at the same time, the so-called “revolutionary” Republicans in Washington gradually became just like the Democrats, infatuated with power in Washington, while engaging in one non-fiscally-conservative (and cynical) thing to which you likely are overreacting: While also often agreeing to excessive spending (a true fiscal conservative wants substantial reductions in spending and the size and scope of Washington), the GOP resists tax increases in favor of debt, which plenty of us do not like to see happen.
The GOP's becoming so much like the Democrats in Washington (complete with corruption and personal misconduct scandals) is the other reason besides being tired of the war in Iraq and disappointment with Bush why we saw the results we saw in 2006.
The young nowadays don't want to identify the the non-hip, older, wealthier GOP any more than they have in the past, and cannot stand to encounter people who might say “no” to their entitlement and morality-compromised mentalities.
Best is to look at the Pew report itself, and to view the other graphs besides the first, the graph used by Ambinder.
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/813/gen-dems
“A political pitch of individualism and responsibility will never work with the 20 somethings. “
18-29 group, no. 25-29 should begin to show a glimmer of hope in theory, but any improvement is subsumed by culture and decades of welfare state entitlements.
Add to that tougher economic times at the moment (hyped by the media, obviously not Republican, either), and continued de-industrialization and outsourcing of jobs (while execs enjoy ever-higher pay) and the odds don't look good for the GOP this November. (But then again, who was going to dare to say it would look good other than what Clinton's and Obama's baggage portend? Not quite how Shaun lists it, but McCain, hardly the youth poster child that Obama is, has baggage of his own.)
Floor yielded. (Interesting subject[s])
Ah, DLS jumps in again, apparently having missed this section