Comments on: If Obama gains 22% of remaining superdelegates it’s over

By: janinedm

janinedm — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 23:59:37 +0000

…the last part is venting, which I'll take from any side at this point, with the added proviso that it can't all be venting. I read Pam's House Blend as does Holly. You'll se that I'm very well behaved (I'm southern).

By: janinedm

janinedm — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 23:57:07 +0000

SalCostello007 at least makes an argument that her negatives are too high, though I subtract points for using all caps. This primary season has lowered my standards.

All I ask for is “I think X because of Y,” rather than “X is true!”

By: DWSUWF

DWSUWF — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 23:30:56 +0000

ummm SalCostello007… Janinedm has something she wants to say to you.

By: janinedm

janinedm — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 23:09:17 +0000

Uh, DWSUWF, you managed to make an argument. Not one that I agree with, mind you, but there were supportive statements and it makes sense as an argument. Holly just made a declaration and quit. What's constructive about that? You think he'll lose the supers after Indiana. Fine. Conversely, I'd think arguing that the pledged delegates will switch sides should be accompanied by an argument, no?

I'm beginning to suspect she's being spoofed today.

By: DWSUWF

DWSUWF — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 23:01:30 +0000

The fallacy in Elrod's argument is the assiumption any Superdelegate is “committed” to any candidate. They are not. Its fun to add them up, to keep score, but it really means nothing now. We have already seen superdelegates switch from Clinton to Obama. Soon, sometime after Indiana, we will see superdelegates switch from Obama to Clinton. When you see the first one of those, it will be like the first Robin signaling spring, and it will be a the beginning of the end for the Obama campaign. He really should cut a deal for the VP before then.

Holly, I hope you have leaned your lesson. If you want to be a positive contributor that adds something to this site and this discussion, you must support Obama. Shame on you.

By: SalCostello007

SalCostello007 — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 22:53:41 +0000

CLINTON CAN'T WIN IN NOVEMBER...
HELL SHE CAN'T EVEN WIN THE DEMOCRATIC DELEGATE CONTEST!

Why can't she win either race?

Her negatives are to high.
People don't trust her.

I'm a D who voted for Bill both times, but I'd vote for McCain before I'd vote for that liar. I'm done voting for Clintons.

By: DLS

DLS — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 17:37:06 +0000

Karl Rove, looking at both candidates, has the following to say.

"Mrs. Clinton's problem remains that she's behind in the delegate count, with 1,589 to Mr. Obama's 1,714. Neither candidate will get to the 2,025 needed for nomination with elected delegates. But the Democratic Party's rules of proportionality mean it will be hard to close that margin among the 733 delegates yet to be elected or declared. Mrs. Clinton will need to take 58% of the remaining delegates. Thus far, she's been able to get that or better in just four of the 46 contests."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120899654405739...

By: theobamanews.com

theobamanews.com — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 16:55:26 +0000

If Obama gains 22% of remaining superdelegates it’s over

Conclusion: For Obama to secure the nomination, he would need 22% of all remaining superdelegates. Hillary Clinton would need 72% of all remaining superdelegates to win. The numbers don’t add up to 100% because of the Edwards delegates.

By: Davebo

Davebo — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 12:07:56 +0000

This email address is protected by EarthLink spamBlocker. Your
email message has been redirected to a "suspect email" folder for
Holly R. In order for your message to be moved to her Inbox, she must add your
email address to a list of allowed senders. She cannot do this until you send
her a message.

Hands over hears and yelling "Na Na Na Na"

By: pacatrue

pacatrue — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 07:47:20 +0000

Thanks for the careful analysis, Elrod.

By: Holly_in_Cincinnati

Holly_in_Cincinnati — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 06:33:02 +0000

This email address is protected by EarthLink spamBlocker. Your
email message has been redirected to a "suspect email" folder for
Holly R. In order for your message to be moved to her Inbox, she must add your
email address to a list of allowed senders. She cannot do this until you send
her a message.

https://webmail.pas.earthlink.net/wam/addme?a=h...

By: ryan

ryan — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 06:31:51 +0000

"The pledged delegates will dump Sen. Obama as soon as they realize that he cannot win in November."

Holly, you have been posting shameful comments about Obama for months, but it is doubtful that you believe the things that you are posting. If you actually do believe this stuff then I'd be thrilled to wager $100 that Obama will be supported by every one of his pledged delegates at the convention, and I suspect many others (including Hillary supporters in need of some cash) would do the same.

As someone who is an editor at TMV it is truly disappointing that you have chosen to use your role to smear and attack a man who has spent his life in public service, is on the verge of becoming the Democratic nominee for President, and who stands an excellent chance of being the next leader of this country. Other editors and commenters have made many thoughtful posts about why they support Clinton or why they have unfavorable opinions of Obama, and those posts help to improve the debate and allow us all to make better decisions. Your comments, unfortunately, have done nothing to improve the debate and reflect the ugliest side of today's current political discourse.

I apologize for the negative tone of this comment, but this site is one of the few available that offers a reprieve from the partisan foolishness that dominates today, so it is hugely disappointing to see an editor of the site posting material that is indistinguishable from what is found on the most wretched of the extremist partisan sites.

By: Holly_in_Cincinnati

Holly_in_Cincinnati — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 05:53:16 +0000

The pledged delegates will dump Sen. Obama as soon as they realize that he cannot win in November.

By: StockBoySF

StockBoySF — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 03:06:04 +0000

Thanks, Elrod for the analysis! I think this is great- of course it's all a parlor game, as you know, but the numbers you use are perfectly reasonable and it really helps to clarify the situation. Good job.