If Obama gains 22% of remaining superdelegates it’s over
Implicit in much of the discussion about Hillary Clinton’s chances at the nomination is the behavior of superdelegates. Though only 20% of the total delegates necessary to determine the Democratic nominee, superdelegates have the unique privilege of switching their vote until the convention. Pledged delegates are, for all intents and purposed, pledged to a candidate.
As many pundits have pointed out, Hillary Clinton has virtually no chance to claim a pledged delegate lead. Her only path to the nomination involves earning enough superdelegates to supersede the pledged delegate margin and get her to 2024. Of course, Barack Obama also needs superdelegates to get him to 2024. But given the fact that much of the conversation involves Hillary’s options, how many superdelegates does she actually need to hit 2024?
First, let’s consider a few baseline points.
1. Let’s give Hillary Clinton a 12-delegate margin out of PA. It might end up less but let’s go with that for now.
2. While Michigan and Florida may be seated at the convention, there is no indication that they will be sat if that result in changing the nomination. Superdelegates may opt to consider MI and FL in their decision, but as of now Michigan and Florida each receive zero delegates.
3. To calculate likely future outcomes, the most conservative estimate is the RCP/Pollster average adjusted for proportional delegates.
Once we have the full pledged delegate total, as well as the expected pledged delegate margins ahead, we can determine how many superdelegates each will need. Keep in mind that superdelegates can switch, but for the sake of argument let’s assume none switch anymore and the candidates can only win over the remaining uncommitted superdelegates.
I’ll use Demconwatch, RCP and Pollster for all data:
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/democratic_delegate_count .html#moreraces
http://www.pollster.com/
Before Pennsylvania, Obama had 1,416 pledged delegates and Clinton had 1,253. If Clinton gets 85 out of PA and Obama gets 73, then the new pledged delegate totals are: 1,489 for Obama and 1,338 for Clinton. That’s a margin of 151.
How many pledged delegates remain? 408.
The states ahead and projected totals are:
Guam: 4 delegates; 2 to Clinton and 2 to Obama (no polling)
NC: 115 delegates; RCP avg. Obama leads by 15.5; expect O66 – C49
IN: 72 delegates; RCP avg. Clinton leads by 2.2; expect C37 – O35
WV: 28 delegates; RCP avg. C up 20; expect C17 – O11
OR: 52 delegates; RCP avg. O up 10; expect O29 – C23
KY: 51 delegates; RCP avg. C up 30; expect C33 – O17
SD: 15 delegates; RCP avg. O up 15; expect O9 – C6
MT: 16 delegates; RCP avg. none; expect O9 – C7
PR: 55 delegates; RCP avg. C up 13; expect C31 – O24
Total new pledged delegates: Obama picks up 201 more pledged delegates and Clinton picks up 203.
That brings the new pledged delegate total to: Obama – 1,690 and Clinton – 1,541.
The margin of pledged delegates after June 3 will be 149 if all goes according to current polling.
So how do they get to 2024? Right now, according to demconwatch, Clinton has 256 superdelegates (including add-ons) and Obama has 232.
If we add the existing superdelegate totals to the expected pledged delegate totals on June 3, we have Obama with 1922 and Clinton with 1797.
So how many superdelegates will each need to get to 2024?
Obama will need 102 more superdelegates. Clinton will need 227 more superdelegates.
So, how many non- add-on superdelegates are left to commit? 306.
But there are also add-on delegates chosen at state conventions, usually according to state performance. Those already chosen have been included in the superdelegate count, but there are several more to go. Final projections at demconwatch have Obama picking up 34 add-ons and Clinton getting 28. So subtract those numbers from the superdelegate totals necessary to hit 2024 and you have: Obama needing 68 superdelegates and Clinton needing 199. These add-ons are not part of the remaining superdelegates available.
Conclusion: For Obama to secure the nomination, he would need 22% of all remaining superdelegates. Hillary Clinton would need 72% of all remaining superdelegates to win. The numbers don’t add up to 100% because of the Edwards delegates.
That’s assuming, of course, that no more superdelegates change their minds, the MI and FL situation remains unresolved to the convention, and the upcoming primaries follow along the RCP average.
Can Hillary Clinton gain the support of 72% of the remaining superdelegates? Since Super Tuesday Obama has earned about 98% of all superdelegates when you consider the handful that switched from Clinton to Obama as negative delegates along with the positive pickups for her.
That will have to change – radically – in order for her to secure the nomination. Quibbling about popular votes, big states, swing states, caucuses and Florida/Michigan is not likely to do it. Clinton has been making those arguments for months to no avail. She needs a major game changer that will either cause Obama to do much worse in the upcoming primaries, or result in almost 3/4 of the remaining superdelegates to go to her. Now you understand why she is going hard negative? It’s also why Obama should stay positive. He doesn’t to parry in negativity in order to gain the delegates (pledged and superdelegates) he needs in order to win. Be patient and preserve the brand for the fall.
This is where the race really is right now.
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14 Responses to “If Obama gains 22% of remaining superdelegates it’s over”
Thanks, Elrod for the analysis! I think this is great- of course it's all a parlor game, as you know, but the numbers you use are perfectly reasonable and it really helps to clarify the situation. Good job.
The pledged delegates will dump Sen. Obama as soon as they realize that he cannot win in November.
“The pledged delegates will dump Sen. Obama as soon as they realize that he cannot win in November.”
Holly, you have been posting shameful comments about Obama for months, but it is doubtful that you believe the things that you are posting. If you actually do believe this stuff then I'd be thrilled to wager $100 that Obama will be supported by every one of his pledged delegates at the convention, and I suspect many others (including Hillary supporters in need of some cash) would do the same.
As someone who is an editor at TMV it is truly disappointing that you have chosen to use your role to smear and attack a man who has spent his life in public service, is on the verge of becoming the Democratic nominee for President, and who stands an excellent chance of being the next leader of this country. Other editors and commenters have made many thoughtful posts about why they support Clinton or why they have unfavorable opinions of Obama, and those posts help to improve the debate and allow us all to make better decisions. Your comments, unfortunately, have done nothing to improve the debate and reflect the ugliest side of today's current political discourse.
I apologize for the negative tone of this comment, but this site is one of the few available that offers a reprieve from the partisan foolishness that dominates today, so it is hugely disappointing to see an editor of the site posting material that is indistinguishable from what is found on the most wretched of the extremist partisan sites.
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Thanks for the careful analysis, Elrod.
Hands over hears and yelling “Na Na Na Na”
If Obama gains 22% of remaining superdelegates it’s over
Conclusion: For Obama to secure the nomination, he would need 22% of all remaining superdelegates. Hillary Clinton would need 72% of all remaining superdelegates to win. The numbers don’t add up to 100% because of the Edwards delegates.
Karl Rove, looking at both candidates, has the following to say.
“Mrs. Clinton's problem remains that she's behind in the delegate count, with 1,589 to Mr. Obama's 1,714. Neither candidate will get to the 2,025 needed for nomination with elected delegates. But the Democratic Party's rules of proportionality mean it will be hard to close that margin among the 733 delegates yet to be elected or declared. Mrs. Clinton will need to take 58% of the remaining delegates. Thus far, she's been able to get that or better in just four of the 46 contests.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120899654405739…
CLINTON CAN'T WIN IN NOVEMBER…
HELL SHE CAN'T EVEN WIN THE DEMOCRATIC DELEGATE CONTEST!
Why can't she win either race?
Her negatives are to high.
People don't trust her.
I'm a D who voted for Bill both times, but I'd vote for McCain before I'd vote for that liar. I'm done voting for Clintons.
The fallacy in Elrod's argument is the assiumption any Superdelegate is “committed” to any candidate. They are not. Its fun to add them up, to keep score, but it really means nothing now. We have already seen superdelegates switch from Clinton to Obama. Soon, sometime after Indiana, we will see superdelegates switch from Obama to Clinton. When you see the first one of those, it will be like the first Robin signaling spring, and it will be a the beginning of the end for the Obama campaign. He really should cut a deal for the VP before then.
Holly, I hope you have leaned your lesson. If you want to be a positive contributor that adds something to this site and this discussion, you must support Obama. Shame on you.
Uh, DWSUWF, you managed to make an argument. Not one that I agree with, mind you, but there were supportive statements and it makes sense as an argument. Holly just made a declaration and quit. What's constructive about that? You think he'll lose the supers after Indiana. Fine. Conversely, I'd think arguing that the pledged delegates will switch sides should be accompanied by an argument, no?
I'm beginning to suspect she's being spoofed today.
ummm SalCostello007… Janinedm has something she wants to say to you.
SalCostello007 at least makes an argument that her negatives are too high, though I subtract points for using all caps. This primary season has lowered my standards.
All I ask for is “I think X because of Y,” rather than “X is true!”
…the last part is venting, which I'll take from any side at this point, with the added proviso that it can't all be venting. I read Pam's House Blend as does Holly. You'll se that I'm very well behaved (I'm southern).