Comments on: Gallup Daily Tracking: McCain As Flawed Republican Candidate?

By: GeorgeSorwell

GeorgeSorwell — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 17:47:07 +0000

Marlowecan–

Every time I read a confident prediction by some pundit, I think of that very Slate article.

Considering the way this election season has gone so far, I'm amazed any kind of conventional wisdom dares to assert itself.

By: Marlowecan

Marlowecan — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 03:47:45 +0000

Runasim said: "I don't think McCcain has had enough exposure yet to predict anything at all about the general election."

I must say, I agree. I think we are still in the "name recognition" phase of the election.

I would imagine Angelina Jolie's numbers would easily beat Obama's, McCain's, or Clinton's at this point were Gallup to put her on the presidential roster. It is really only us nutters in the "Chattering Class" who are paying close attention and shifting tea leaves.

A TMVer a few weeks back posted a link to a William Saletan article at "Slate" from Sept. 2000 which declared definitively the reasons: "Why Bush is toast".

http://www.slate.com/id/89619/

I am eternally in that person's debt for posting such a cautionary link to being definitive about anything. Especially in this crazy election year, who knows what tomorrow will bring?

By: joegandelman

joegandelman — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 02:35:35 +0000

I didn't go to “lefty blogs” because they were lefty blogs. I saw they were discussing this issue which other blogs were not. Unless I do a roundup where I take hours to find all different viewpoints. I will sometimes spot an issue being discussed on a left, center or right blog and give my take on it. This post is not the definitive view and report on McCain's chances, but just how some pundits are looking at the numbers and thinking there is a pattern. And then I gave my own take which people can accept or reject…or add their own take in comments here and outline why they see it differently. The problem with blogs is that it often comes down to talking about whether a writer or blog is left, or right or not sufficiently fitting the definition someone else has (which MUST be the correct one) of what is centrist or moderate. The issue of the post is really whether these numbers say something about McCain's chances or not. So feel free to use this space to give us your own take on what you think his chances are in detail and why the others' takes aren't correct.

By: elrod

elrod — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 02:04:54 +0000

Yeah, people just aren't thinking about the general election much yet.

I find Zogby's last paragraph telling: what exactly does Hillary Clinton think she's doing at this point? She cannot win the nomination unless she destroys him – and the party in the process. Is she playing for 2012?

By: runasim

runasim — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 01:49:36 +0000

I don't think McCcain has had enough exposure yet to predict anything at all about the general election.
Except for some blogs, the media have been too addticted on Clinton vs Obama to spare much time for covering him.

By: casualobserver

casualobserver — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 01:30:43 +0000

Joe, I take it that during the course of your relatively lengthy post, it never occurred to you that going to left blogs for a truly candid assessment of McCain's chances was a bit off the mark? Novak doesn't count either since his ego based opinion is only tempered by an early onset of Alzheimers.

One could also easily turn the very same math onto Clinton or Obama. Obviously, their numbers against McCain have not moved either with 4 times the media coverage.

As all my lefty friends here have gone to great lengths to argue for several months the McCain's basic tieing of either Obama or Clinton cannot be fairly weighted unless and until the Dems have a nominee. So, I agree, let's wait until we see how the disenfranchised D's break once the left has their nominee.