Why Obama Will Win In Pennsylvania

Although most polls show Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama among likely Democratic voters in tomorrow’s Pennsylvania primary, I will once again stick out my neck and join the most accurate poll of the campaign season and predict an Obama victory.

This is because of two reasons: Clinton’s relentlessly negative campaigning has drowned out her message for many voters and the expected record voter turnout will skew heavily toward densely populated Philadelphia and suburbs where the Obama campaign got slews of new voters to register. The likely result is that any gains that Clinton makes in her Western Pennsylvania strongholds will be more than offset in the southeast.

It goes without saying that the Clinton campaign will spin any result to a farethewell, even a loss. Dick Polman’s hilarious but probably accurate take on how a defeat will be spun:

“We’re very pleased with where we are. We always knew that Pennsylvania would be a very tough environment for us. However, we strongly believe – as we have always believed – that the primary results in any state with 12 letters its name, conducted at a point in the calendar when many potential voters are likely to be distracted by baseball games and spring cleaning, should be deemed an inaccurate representation of the electorate’s mood, and therefore illegitimate.

“Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are crucial to this party’s prospects in November, and therefore we urge Senate Obama to join us in calling for re-votes in all three states. We think this would be an excellent way for Senator Obama to demonstrate his love of America, which of course is unimpeachable, as far as we know. We are confident that Louis Farrakhan, Rev. Wright, and William Ayers will not influence his decision to support a Pennsylvania re-vote.

“But even if Senator Obama retains his negligible national lead after all the re-votes, and after the remaining nine primaries are conducted, we nevertheless believe there should be no rush to judgment, and that the people should be heard. We’d like to see the democratic process play out. Accordingly, Senator Clinton, in the interests of fairness, fully intends to reset the primary calendar and start over. Come June, we’ll see you all in Iowa. Iowa, the great state of corn. When Senator Clinton was a child, traveling through Iowa on car trips, she often ate corn . . . “

A final and perhaps unnecessary thought. If you’re registered to vote in Pennsylvania, do so early and often.