Gallup Tracking: Clinton Rising And Obama Dropping

Within days of the crucial Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential primary, the Gallup Daily Tracking poll and and one other shows Senator Hillary Clinton is showing signs of “Big Mo” (momentum) — and that rival Senator Barack Obama’s campaign may be sagging.

Trending is what you really need to look for…and some of the new polls aren’t good news for Obama.

Gallup:

Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows that Hillary Clinton now receives 46% of the support of Democrats nationally, compared to 45% for Barack Obama, marking the first time Obama has not led in Gallup’s daily tracking since March 18-20.

These results are based on interviewing conducted April 16-18, including two days of interviewing after the contentious Wednesday night debate in Philadelphia and the media focus that followed. Support for Hillary Clinton has been significantly higher in both of these post-debate nights of interviewing than in recent weeks. The two Democratic candidates are now engaged in intensive campaigning leading up to Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary and are under a continual and hot media spotlight, increasing the chances for change in the views of Democrats in the days ahead.

A Newsmax/Zogby shows Obama leading in Pennsylvania:

Inch by inch, New York’s Hillary Clinton is building a lead over rival Barack Obama of Illinois leading up to Tuesday’s presidential primary in Pennsylvania, a key late contest on the road to determine who will win the party’s nomination, the latest Newsmax/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.

She now leads with 47% support, compared to 42% for Obama, just four days before the polls open. The two-day tracking survey, which was conducted April 17-18, 2008, showed that 11% were either undecided or supported someone else. This is the first of the tracking polls to be conducted entirely after the fiery Clinton-Obama debate Wednesday night.

Pollster Zogby reports that undecideds are starting to break — for Clinton:

Undecideds are down to 8% and they have slowly begun to break for Clinton. Obama slipped in the one-day sample to only 40%. His lead in the eastern part of the state is still in double-digits but slipping, and his huge advantage among young voters is narrowing a bit. Clinton has a 39-point lead among Catholics and a 19 point lead among whites. She continues to get higher marks on ‘understanding Pennsylvania’ and handling the economy.

Rasmussen finds narrow margins also, but doesn’t see it as reflecting a major Obama downswing:

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama leads Clinton nationally 45% to 43% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). While that appears to be a tightening of the race, today’s results are consistent with the general range of support enjoyed by both candidates in recent weeks. Obama has been within three percentage points of the 48% level every day and Clinton has stayed within three points of the 43% level.

While the national numbers are fairly stable, Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania is down to three percentage points. That same survey found that 57% believe the Superdelegates should honor the primary results and vote for Obama even if something happens to convince them that Clinton would be a stronger general election candidate. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 84.0% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

All of this taken together suggests (a) you can throw a dart on a target with numbers and make that your informed prediction about the final result in Pennsylvania, (b) Obama is facing some erosion and Clinton appears to be on the upswing (but some other polls don’t agree).

In fact, however, there has been little positive for Obama in terms of press or developments since Wednesday night’s debate.

The polls suggests a hardening of both sides…going back to where things were perhaps a few months ago, with Obama’s most loyal supporters backing him and Clinton’s most loyal supporters backing her. The key are the undecideds…and if they are indeed breaking for Clinton, then Obama has problems.