Seven 2014 Predictions on Obamacare, Impeachment, Iran, and More Political Prediction

There are lots of prediction lists coming out and not just the ones by professional psychics. PUndits are issuing them, too, and one of the best is from The Daily Beast’s Michael Tomasky. Here are the first three:

1. Situation: Budget Deadline. Prediction: Deal reached after 9 p.m. on January 14.

The year will start bleakly—really going out on a limb there, eh?—as January 15 arrives. Remember, the budget deal reached in December did not appropriate any specific dollars toward any specific program. It just raised the ceiling on the amounts that may be appropriated.

So between now and January 15, congressional appropriators have to set those levels. One has to assume that the GOP establishment’s “no more stupid shutdowns” rule will still have force. But there will be enough Tea Party members willing to create enough mischief to make things suspenseful again. I somehow suspect that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), notably sidelined during the December negotiations, won’t be quite so cooperative this time around.

I’d still say there won’t be a shutdown. House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have that much control over their caucuses. But it’s just the rhythm of these things that the radicals have to flex a little muscle this time. I predict a really, really last-minute deal, in which the radicals won’t get anything but will have reminded the establishment that they’re not lying down.

2. Situation: Debt Limit. Prediction: Obama Will Go Big, Tempt Impeachment Charges.

The Republicans will announce some set of ridiculous debt-limit increase demands. Obama will say, “I’m not negotiating.” He has said that every since the first debt fiasco back in 2009, but behind the scenes, the administration has talked.

This time I think it’ll be different. I sense Obama has just reached the end of his rope on this one. That face of his, which so rarely betrays an emotion, contorts whenever the issue arises, into the shape of someone who’s just sucked a lemon. In addition, Congress’s role in the debt limit is at heart a question of constitutional law, and if this con-law president is going to take a stand over anything, it’s probably that. I don’t know exactly what Obama is going to do, but it could be dramatic—he even had his lawyers studying that platinum-coin nonsense last year. This is the issue on which he’ll invite an impeachment charge. I’d imagine he’d like to be the president who settled this one once and for all—assuming it’s settled in his direction, which I can’t predict, except to say I think efforts to impeach him over the issue would go nowhere and only help Obama.

3. Situation: March 31 Obamacare Sign-Up Deadline. Prediction: Success!

Did you notice that nearly 1 million people signed up for health-care coverage in December? That was to meet the deadline to have coverage by January 1. The final deadline for signing up for the federal or state exchanges is March 31. How many people are going to sign their freedom away between now and the first pitch of the baseball season?

I predict that at this point, another 3 million is a conservative estimate. I’ll go ahead and give you a number—by March 31, I say we’ll have 5.8 million sign-ups. That’s not 7 million, but it’s not bad. There’s nothing magic about 7 million, mind you—it’s not like the Hellmouth starts devouring Sunnydale on April 1 if 7 million isn’t hit. It’s just a target that was intended to suggest the likelihood of a decent balance of sick and healthy. I doubt 5.8 million would be all that much different.

My broader prediction, echoing what I’ve written previously, is that Obamacare is not going to be anywhere near the problem for Democrats next fall that most pundits and most polls now are foreseeing.

Here’s a list of the other predictions. Go to the link and read them in full.

4. Situation: Iran. Prediction: A Deal, but Problems.
5. Situation: Republican Primaries. Prediction: About a .333 Batting Average for the Tea Party.
6. Situation: November By-Elections. Prediction: Status Quo Mostly, Except Kentucky.
7. Situation: The Hillary Situation. Prediction: She’ll Announce After the Election.

I also need to note that ideologists haven’t wasted any time.

We ran this cartoon on MSNBC here on TMV. I soon got emails calling the site a right wing site masking as moderate. Then I got an hour ago an email saying. “You’re not a moderate. You’re a liberal.” I don’t see our politics improving in 2014.

American politics has increasingly become a way for many to sublimate their own personal, often psychological issues, by lashing out and name calling rather than a)explaining why they see something differently b)pointing out exactly why their argument is more logical or if it involves a policy will be more effective.

You do have to wonder about folks who on a relaxing national holiday will email someone out of the blue to send an ideological name calling email. But, then again, you really don’t. Re-read the previous paragraph.

4 Comments

  1. American politics has increasingly become a way for many to sublimate their own personal, often psychological issues, by lashing out and name calling

    Thanks, Joe, for correctly pointing that out. And thank you for another year of hard work (i.e. tenacity) here at TMV.

    On the Tomasky predictions … they look good to me. I do wonder if there will be modest gains in the Senate for the Rs.

    Happy New Year!

  2. Yes, Joe, it’s certainly an area where anything that disagrees with someone’s chosen beliefs can earn you an attack.

    Point out facts on climate change and back them up with links to web sites run by scientists or an article about a study from such biased sources as Christian Science Monitor, Discover Magazine, Scientific American or Realclimate and there will be a personal attack combined with a reference to a partisan web site.

    Defend social safety net programs as being a morally good thing as well as good for the country and the odds are pretty good that you will be accused of being an unemployed leech on society who must obvious be one of the 47% that Romney was right about.

  3. Kevin,

    I think gains for the Rs in the Senate will depend on a combination of what kind of candidates they field (Complete Tea Party domination in the nominating process won’t be good for them.), if the jobs situation can start improving rapidly and if he’s right about Obamacare this year, which I think he is.

  4. Jim, we completely agree. There is so much time it is hard to say. I do expect the economy to continue to improve (yeh!) and that the TP dominating the nominating process would be a game changer. I think things will look much better for Obamacare in the next few months. The next waves of significant problems won’t be tangible until Sept/Oct when business open enrollment is more clear. Cheers.

Submit a Comment