Gallup Poll: Bush Sets New Approval Rating Low At 28 %

As if Republicans — particularly presumptive Republican Presidential nominee Senator John McCain — didn’t have enough to worry about, a new Gallup Poll shows President George Bush’s approval rating now down to the lowest of his administration…and lower than most Presidents since World War II.

Most polls are see saws. But in recent months, Bush’s polls have been largely “saw”: it’s clear that barring some major positive development, Bush’s best days as President are likely behind him and at best he can do a holding pattern until he leaves. At worst, he will have to face a host of crises that are unlikely to dramatically approve. The poll is not a happy one for Bush and his party heading into an election year:

President George W. Bush’s job approval rating has dropped to 28%, the lowest of his administration. Bush’s approval is lower than that of any president since World War II, with the exceptions of Jimmy Carter (who had a low point of 28% in 1979), and Richard Nixon and Harry Truman, who suffered ratings in the low- to mid-20% range in the last years of their administrations.

Bush’s lowest job approval rating had been 29%, reached in a July 2007 Gallup Poll. Since that time, Bush’s approval ratings have been generally in the low 30% range, averaging 32.5% across the eight polls conducted this year before the most recent poll, conducted April 6-9.

Bush’s average for his first seven years in office was 52%, a tenure marked by a slide from high ratings in his first two years to the very low ratings in his sixth and seventh years, and in the first months of 2008. Bush’s highest job approval rating is 90%, recorded in September 2001, just after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and is the highest job approval rating in Gallup history.

And it’s NOT just the Gallup poll that shows an administration that is in trouble and seemingly winding down in terms of days, popularity and effectiveness.

Look at THESE NUMBERS at Polling Report.com.

Next, go to Pollster.com and study the various polls. And just look at the general direction of his approval ratings on this graph posted on the site:

And it’s likely to get worse for Bush. A key factor: the troubling trend of job losses could mean a further loss of support.

Indeed, you can see how polling could be influenced by these ongoing issues:

(1) The war in Iraq. Recent hearings clearly showed that not just Democrats but Republicans are troubled and frustrated by the fact that there is no light at the end of the tunnel — or, seemingly a plan to light one soon by the administration — in the war. Any further deterioration will further sour the public on a war a highly unpopular and poorly planned war.

(2) The economy. Everyone knows a story — or has been impacted by — by the current economic deterioration. Bush & Co have avoided the word “recession” but even a jar of pickles on the shelf at Ralph’s supermarket on Adams Avenue in San Diego knows we are now in one. There is no sign the daily news stories — and personal stories of woe Americans hear or experience themselves — are going to get better soon.

(3) The feeling that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Every day Americans read stories of some new cut or deterioration in service or of a company struggling to adapt to a changing and increasingly sick market. Stories about Airlines going under won’t help create a sense that things are getting back on track.

(4) The administration’s credibility deficit. On a host of issues, Bush has now become to this generation in terms of credibility what Lyndon B. Johnson and Richard Nixon were to other generations. Perhaps more accurately, to many Americans Bush is now morphing into a Republican version of Jimmy Carter — a confident-talking but hapless President whose presidency will likely be studied by future Democratic and Republican administrations as one that should not be emulated.

What does this mean politically?

More than ever McCain is going to have to find a way to distance himself from appearing as offering a Bush III Administration Without George Bush. A recently widely publicized New York Times report that said moderate Republicans were worried that McCain was now being advised by the same neocons who helped sculpt policy for the Bush administration won’t help — but it will help Democrats who are likely to seize the McCain As George Bush Clone issue and run with it (accurate or not).

McCain will have to try and not alienate his pro-Bush Republican base as he runs the race — but could he win a swim meet while tied to a quickly sinking 300 pound anchor?