Pennsylvania Poll: Clinton Losing Ground Among Women While Margin Tightens

Polls are all over the place in the high-stakes Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential primary, but the growing trend shows Hillary Clinton steadily losing ground to Barack Obama — a trend confirmed in a new Quinnipiac University poll.

And this poll has a bit of particularly bad news for Clinton: she is losing ground among women voters, the most reliable part of her candidacy base:

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is catching up with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary and now trails 50 – 44 percent among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 – 41 percent Sen. Clinton lead in an April 2 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, one of the biggest shifts is among women who went from 54 – 37 percent for Clinton April 2 to 54 – 41 percent for her today. A look at other groups shows:

* White voters for Clinton 56 – 38 percent, down from 59 – 34 percent last week.
* Black voters back Obama 75 – 17 percent, compared to 73 – 11 percent.
* Men are for Obama 48 – 44 percent, compared to a 46 – 46 percent tie last week.
* Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 – 40, while older voters back Clinton 55 – 38 percent.

“With two weeks to go, Sen. Barack Obama is knocking on the door of a major political upset in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Obama is not only building on his own constituencies, but is taking away voters in Sen. Hillary Clinton’s strongest areas – whites including white women, voters in the key swing Philadelphia suburbs and those who say the economy is the most important issue in the campaign,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“The Pennsylvania primary is like a game of horseshoes: Sen. Obama needs only to come close to be considered the winner – taking away, perhaps fatally, Sen. Clinton’s argument she is the candidate best able to defeat Sen. John McCain in critical swing states like Pennsylvania.

But is this yet another example of a poll likely to produce narrative heading up to a primary election that later causes the talking heads, print analysts and bloggers to say “never mind” or shove their old predictions under the table once the votes are counted?

MSNBC’s First Read notes:

Exactly two weeks until the primary there, it seems a lot like we saw in the lead up to Ohio: Obama is gaining ground on Clinton almost every day (while racking a superdelegate per day, too). And not only are polls closing, but Obama’s financial advantage on the ground is growing, with SEIU dumping nearly a million dollars. Deja Ohio? Yet as we’ve asked before: Will the result be different this time? Will Obama keep the race as close as some of the polls are beginning to suggest? The answer could very influence whether the Dem race lasts through June (and beyond) or if thing might be over in May.

But wait: there is a potential “game changer” on the horizon.

Just be sure you watch Saturday’s debate between Clinton and Obama. Will the departure (partially that is) of controversial chief Clinton strategist Mark Penn signal a shift in how Clinton presents herself at the debate? Will she be on attack, going after Obama at every instance, or will she use the debate as a chance to present a positive image of herself as both a potential leader and as a person?

Or will it be basically the same incarnations of Clinton (the attack Clinton or the low-key Clinton) that we’ve seen before. After all Penn — even though he is supposedly gone from her campaign and has come under intense fire from Clinton supporters and even some within the Clinton campaign organization — will be helping prepare Clinton for the Saturday debate.