This addition of the “Rattling of the Cages” focuses on new developments in major House, Senate, and Gubernatorial races. In addition, the vote to reopen the federal government after a two-week standstill, while mostly on predictable lines, still offeres fodder as 2014 fast approaches.
Florida-13
The first special election of 2014, and in all likelihood the first test of the backlash over the partial government shutdown is expected to occur early in the new year. The vacancy arose when http://young.house.gov the longest serving House Republican, died last week at the age of 82. Young, first elected in 1970, had announced his retirement a week before his passing.
Though the race may provide early clues, it will be limited. President Oama did carry the St. Petersburg district twice, but Young’s long time appeal made it a safe seat. One past Young challenger recounted that wherever she went, she was met with a, “Bill Young once did me a favor.”
Even before Young’s passing, the Democrats already had one strong challenger. http://jessicaforflorida.com had opposed him in ’12 and captured 42%. But Democrats want Alex Sink, who very nearly beat Rick Scott for the open Governor’s seat in 2010, and she is said to be very much considering the race.
Republicans have a bevy of elected officials thought to be interested,
but may be awaiting Bill Young 11, the late Congressman’s son who is said to have coveted the seat for years.
The Democrats should have a slight edge on this seat, and a not insignificant one if Sink runs, but a low-turnout special election can add some wrinkles. Still, the path to significant pick-ups start here.
Arkansas-2
Democrats got big news from an unexpected place early this week when http://griffin.house.gov announced he would not seek a third term.
The district is not easy for the Democrats. Arkansas is no longer easy for the Democrats. But it is not nearly as intimidating as its southern neighbors. The President twice drew 44% and even while losing her Senate seat by 20%, Blanche Lincoln still carried Pulaski County (Little Rock). And even before Griffith’s announcement, the Democrats were already on the verge of gaining a solid recruit in North Little Rock Mayor http://patrickhenryhays.com
Griffin’s surprise retirement gives Ds an opportunity (AP)
But outside of Pulaski, the terrain gets tougher. Faulkner and Saline Counties preferred Griffin 2-1 last year, while White County was more than 3 to 1(the remaining counties are smaller. A well funded nominee can obviously make that closer. Lincoln didn’t lose Van Buren by much but it’s smaller.
The person Griffith faced last year ran a rerpectable but underfunded race. Money should not be a hurdle for Hays or whomever emerges as the Democratic nominee and, against a Republican not as widely known as Griffith, should be able to offset his popularity from 2012. But to say that will translate to a pickup? A long way to go before saying that.
Arkansas-4
In a neighboring district, Democrats are on the verge of getting a major and unexpecting recruiting boost. Former FEMA Director James Lee Witt is planning to make a race of the seat Tom Cotton is giving up to take on Senator Mark Pryor. But this seat is evocative of how deep the parties woes have become in southern seats such as this.
Unlike Arkansas-2, the numbers do not give Democrats much room for optimism. Al Gore’s 49% win has diminished to 36% for Obama, and the removal of two rural counties during redistricting in a process Democrats controlled actually moved the district 1.5% further to the right. At the very least, one must wonder if Democrats regret nat attaching the “Fayetteville Finger” to this district, as initial proposals called for. That county, which remained in the 3rd Congressional district, is Democratic leaning territory.
But Witt’s performance at FEMA was heralded by both parties and the presence of Mike Ross, who held the seat for six terms prior to 2012, will boost Democrats.
James Lee Witt a go for Ds in Arkansas(blog.al.com)
Witt will surely not run as a national Democrat and, his former boss, Bill Clinton, is probably assured of making a late stump. That leaves the race no better than a tossup. Still, considering Democrats seemed to concede this one for life even before Cotton had won the seat, Witt’s entry may be the recipe they need.
Nebraska-2
Democrats received more positive recruiting news in the wake of the shutdown. That news came as Omaha City Councilman Pete Festersen, who had considered but passed on a bid to take on vulnerable Republican Congressman Lee Terry, has decided to take the leap after all. Terry has increasingly evoked contrasting opinions about his 15 year service, which was reflected by his 4,000 vote 51-49% re-election last year, as Romney was taking 53%.
Festersen’s change of heart may have resulted from an acknowledged Terry gaffe during the shutdown. Asked whether he’d keep his paycheck, Terry replied, “Dang straight.” He added, “we’ve got a nice house and a kid in college, and I’ll tell you we cannot handle it. Giving our paycheck away when you still worked and earned it? That’s just not going to fly.”
Terry will clearly be on the defensive and this will be a targeted race. Turnout typically does not work in the Democrats favor in off-years (in a race where they need every vote), but the question is whether, after 15 years, Terry has warn out his welcome. And there’s a chance voters will say “Dang Straight.” One thing is certain. You won’t see Terry running Obama-Terry signs like ’08.
Did Lee Terry shoot himself in the foot? Dang Straight? (Washington Post)
Democrats may be on the defensive in two Northeastern seats they must hold to have any serious chance of making House gains. One is in New York-1, where the entry of State Senator Lee Zeldin puts perennial target Tim Bishop in another predicament. Bishop survived 52-48% last year after being thrown on the defensive by a fundraising scandal, but unlike his past opponent, Zeldin has been tested at the ballot box.
Another potential worry is Connecticut-5, where freshman Elizabeth Esty may face Dr. William Petit gained unwelcome fame five years ago when his wife and daughters were murdered in a Cheshire home invasion. Petit is still undecided and the district leans Democratic, but not nearly as heavily as other districts. Either way, one thing is certain. In a district that is home to Newtown, guns would certainly be at the forefront.
In Gubernatorial news, Illinois Governor http://quinnforillinois.com got some welcome news when Bill Daley decided against challenging him in the Democratic primary. The move, coupled with Attorney General Lisa Madigan’s decision to forego challenging him as well, seems to ensure Quinn’s nomination to a second full term. But that is not welcome news for the Democrats. Quinn’s popularity has been underwater almost since he came from behind to beat http://bradyforillinois.com by 1% to keep his job in 2010. It remains to be seen who Republicans will tap to go up against Quinn. Democrats are hopeful that Brady, a downstate conservative who took 21% to carry the Republican flag, can win again. But in this deep blue state, a long, tough slog awaits Quinn.
Finally, it’s far from evident yet but the reverse may be about to happen in Kansas. Even in one of the reddest state’s in the nation, http://www.brownback.com has made clear his proclivity for moving the party even further right than wanted. The response has been that Brownback has trailed early matchups. The Democrats have landed a solid recruit in Democratic State House Minority Leader http://davisforkansas.com. Recently, he tapped Jill Docking, whose husband was Lieutenant Governor once upon a time and whose father and grandfather were Governors, to vbe huis running mate. Brownback and Docking had a history onced before. It was she who challenged Brownback as he sought the last two years of Bob Dole’s Senate seat in 1996, but Brownback beat her 54-43%. The question of the day. Will Kathleen Sebelius be asked to campaign for the ticket? Will it hurt?
The recent vote to reopen the government is also worthy of examination, as it can be fodder for members, endangered and not as they enter another election year. And while the Republican House members who advocated a “clean CR” and the 87 who ultimately rejected a majority of their Republican colleagues and vote to reopen the government were mainly predictable, there were a few surprises — from coast to coast.
http://denham.house.gov of California and http://reed.house.gov of New York voted against reopening the government. Both, having narrowly won re-election last year after underwhelming campaigns, were already high on Democratic target lists. Obama carried Denham’s district twice by slightly increasing margins. While Romney won Reed’s district narrowly in ’12, McCain lost it. The outlook is far from certain but, expect this to add fuel to the Democratic challengers fire.
Conversely, http://benishek.house.gov of Michigan and
Other Republicans who may see the toughest races of any incumbents, http://southerland.house.gov and http://walberg.house.gov, were “noes.’
Philosophically speaking, the “yes” votes of Senate candidates http://cotton.house.gov and http://daines.house.gov may have been the most surprising. Cotton has been a true champion of conservative causes eve before capturing his Arkansas last year. He has decided to test that appeal by challenging Democratic Senator http://pryorforsenate.com. Daines is less affiliated with the Tea-Party wing wing but has sided with them on numerous votes, including aid to Sandy. So they may have calculated that opposing it would be political suicide.