Comments on: Why Obama Will Win In Pennsylvania

By: DWSUWF

DWSUWF — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 02:08:39 +0000

Shaun,
You gotta lay off the kool-aid, man. you are starting to embarrass yourself.

Just a sec… gotta bookmark this one – ok done.

I'll be reminding you of this post on April 23.

By: zftcg

zftcg — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 20:25:46 +0000

Would either candidate end their campaign prior to the convention, even if they were to lose every remaining contest?

Obama almost certainly won't drop due to primary losses; only a major scandal would force him out. Hillary almost certainly WILL drop out if she loses PA, due to the surprise factor, the media onslaught, and the fact that it basically kicks out the final leg of support for her anti-Obama rationale (he can't win big industrial swing states).

If she wins PA but loses NC/IN, she may not drop out voluntarily, but you may see a swing of superdelegates toward Obama that will move her chances from "long shot" to "not gonna happen", at which point she may have no choice but to drop out. It's possible that could happen even if she wins Indiana.

If I had to guess, I'd put it at about 10% odds that she loses PA and drops out, 30% that superdelegates force her to drop out after May 6, 50% that they do so after the final primary, 5% that this goes all the way to the convention (I know she said she'd do it, but I think she was bucking up her own supporters), and 5% that she somehow comes back and wins this thing.

By: PaulSilver

PaulSilver — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 19:15:42 +0000

I am fine with the campaigns continuing, but they should adjust to focus on why independent voters should support the Democratic party.

By: AustinRoth

AustinRoth — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 17:45:46 +0000

What does it matter, now?

Would either candidate end their campaign prior to the convention, even if they were to lose every remaining contest?

No, of course not. There is no way this ends before the convention.

By: elrod

elrod — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 17:36:29 +0000

The Field is super-pessimistic on Obama in PA. Unless things take a turn for the worse, I don't see it looking like the Field has it.

By: aba23

aba23 — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 15:59:45 +0000

Not happening, alas. The Field has done some serious district-by-district number crunching on this (see update at http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=986), and there's no reason to believe he will be within 10 points of the popular vote (and the delegate math is even worse).

Although it's difficult not to focus on "winning" by looking at majorities in an election-like format, we should not overemphasize them in party primaries (and caucuses) to the exclusion of other important indicators (eg, trends, demographics, new voters) as they may relate to the general election.

By: elrod

elrod — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 14:31:56 +0000

There's no doubt Obama has moved up in PA ever since the race speech in Philadelphia. The Tuzla incident, the Casey endorsement, and the bus tour through the state have helped Obama connect with voters in smaller towns like Lititz, Greensburg and York. But will he win the state outright? That seems a real longshot at this point. I think a loss of under 10 points is good enough for Obama. A loss of under 5, which would lead to a delegate tie or something close to it, would be gravy. An outright win would end the whole process.