Why Obama Will Win In Pennsylvania
Based on an interview with a dairy cow, among others, I predicted about a month ago that Barack Obama would sneak by Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, yet another state seemingly tailor made for the one time shoo-in for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Well, all of the polls show Obama narrowing what had been a 20 percentage point gap to only a few points, or in one case actually leading Clinton, with 19 days to go for what could and arguably should be her death knell.
The Keystone State would seem to be in Clinton’s pocket because of several historic advantages that accrue to her. It has droves of blue-collar workers, Catholics, an elderly population second only to Florida and a Democrats-only primary that does not allow same-day registration.
All true, but this conventional wisdom overlooks:
* The substantial number of college students who have made up a big part of Obama’s base in other primaries.
* The ongoing trend in the affluent Philadelphia suburbs away from moderate Republicans toward liberal Democrats, which also favors Obama.
* The nearly 900,000 new registered Democrats in large part because of the Obama campaign’s superior grassroots organizing skills.
* The inability of the Clinton campaign to put up a full slate for the state’s 188 delegates.
To which can be added the possibility that in the last month a goodly number of Pennsylvanians who were on the fence have jumped to the Obama side because they see the mathematical improbability of Clinton having enough delegates to clinch the nomination and want the race to end much sooner than later.
The low ratio of undecided voters in the latest polls (from 13 percent in the PPP to 8 percent in the Quinnipiac to 2 percent in Survey USA) play to this notion.
Meanwhile, no amount of mind-numbing television commercials — and my eyes glaze over and ears close each time the candidates barge into my living room on the edge of metro Philadelphia — are going to move large numbers of voters at this relatively late date.
Mind you that everything has to break Obama’s way for him to eke out a win, most notably those fence sitters.
It may be a reflection of his campaign’s own polling, but Obama seems to have sensed the shift in momentum to him in Pennsylvania and is talking past Clinton and at John McCain more and more these days. Meanwhile, Clinton seems to have let up on the personal attacks and shifted back to a more issues-oriented pitch.
It’s about time.
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7 Responses to “Why Obama Will Win In Pennsylvania”
There's no doubt Obama has moved up in PA ever since the race speech in Philadelphia. The Tuzla incident, the Casey endorsement, and the bus tour through the state have helped Obama connect with voters in smaller towns like Lititz, Greensburg and York. But will he win the state outright? That seems a real longshot at this point. I think a loss of under 10 points is good enough for Obama. A loss of under 5, which would lead to a delegate tie or something close to it, would be gravy. An outright win would end the whole process.
Not happening, alas. The Field has done some serious district-by-district number crunching on this (see update at http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=986), and there's no reason to believe he will be within 10 points of the popular vote (and the delegate math is even worse).
Although it's difficult not to focus on “winning” by looking at majorities in an election-like format, we should not overemphasize them in party primaries (and caucuses) to the exclusion of other important indicators (eg, trends, demographics, new voters) as they may relate to the general election.
The Field is super-pessimistic on Obama in PA. Unless things take a turn for the worse, I don't see it looking like the Field has it.
What does it matter, now?
Would either candidate end their campaign prior to the convention, even if they were to lose every remaining contest?
No, of course not. There is no way this ends before the convention.
I am fine with the campaigns continuing, but they should adjust to focus on why independent voters should support the Democratic party.
Would either candidate end their campaign prior to the convention, even if they were to lose every remaining contest?
Obama almost certainly won't drop due to primary losses; only a major scandal would force him out. Hillary almost certainly WILL drop out if she loses PA, due to the surprise factor, the media onslaught, and the fact that it basically kicks out the final leg of support for her anti-Obama rationale (he can't win big industrial swing states).
If she wins PA but loses NC/IN, she may not drop out voluntarily, but you may see a swing of superdelegates toward Obama that will move her chances from “long shot” to “not gonna happen”, at which point she may have no choice but to drop out. It's possible that could happen even if she wins Indiana.
If I had to guess, I'd put it at about 10% odds that she loses PA and drops out, 30% that superdelegates force her to drop out after May 6, 50% that they do so after the final primary, 5% that this goes all the way to the convention (I know she said she'd do it, but I think she was bucking up her own supporters), and 5% that she somehow comes back and wins this thing.
Shaun,
You gotta lay off the kool-aid, man. you are starting to embarrass yourself.
Just a sec… gotta bookmark this one – ok done.
I'll be reminding you of this post on April 23.