Poll: Obama Takes Lead Over Clinton In Pennsylvania
ADVISORY TO READERS: Keep in mind when you read this that polls are snapshots and often contradictory. If you walk into a room with professionals during Campaign 2008 after a primary and see some red-faced people wearing sunglasses so that they’re not recognizable, they are likely to be pollsters. But, even so, this poll is stunning:
Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, a remarkable turnaround after trailing Hillary Clinton by 26 points in a PPP poll in the state just two and a half weeks ago.
Obama’s steep rise could be a reflection of a growing sense among Democratic voters that a continued divisive nomination process will hurt the party’s chances of defeating John McCain this fall. An Obama upset in Pennsylvania would be virtually certain to force Clinton out of the race.
Obama has his customary large advantage with black voters (75-17) and is keeping it relatively competitive with white voters (49-38)
He leads across all age groups except senior citizens and balances Clinton’s 10 point lead with women with his own 15 point lead with men.
Note, however, that this poll doesn’t reflect what some other polls — which show Obama making some inroads — are reporting. But some key polls ARE SHOWING a shift.
Go HERE to Real Clear Politics. Look in the upper right hand corner and look the poll spread (they average various polls). Clinton was in the double-digits in Pennsylvania. Now she is down to a 6 percent lead. That is a MAJOR shift.
Also check out THIS PAGE at Pollster.com and you can review various polls and see how they’ve changed. Not all of them put Obama ahead, but there are signs of inroads.
Will we soon see a “hail Mary” pass from the Clinton camp to change these numbers?
CORRECTION: We inadvertently chopped off part of the headline when this first went on the site so it said Clinton took the lead. We fixed it within two minutes of it appearing on the site but the original could be on some search engines. TMV regrets the error.
9 Responses to “Poll: Obama Takes Lead Over Clinton In Pennsylvania”
I posted before and I will post again. I am a Hillary supporter but she should get out now. Immediately for the good of the party.
Let Barak Obama and his supporters make their case for why he should be the next president.
This one (PPP) has to be called an outlier at this point, but taken together with several other polls over the last few days and there are strong indications of the trend toward Obama. I'd still be very surprised to see him pull out a win in PA though.
On second thought, I'd be floored.
Hillary shouldn't get out until some sort of “momentum” is behind Obama. Whether it's from a PA upset, or a big blowout in North Carolina.
It would be bad for the Democratic party if she got out for what appeared to be no reason (though she certainly has a lot of legitimate reasons now).
PPP has been quite accurate in the past during this primary. I wonder how this one will play out, if they are doing something no other pollsters are…
It's really hard to see this as anything other than an outlier at this point. I was looking at a report just from about 3 days ago that still had Clinton leading by 12 points or so. I guess we will see in a couple weeks.
until we get closer and the polling becomes more consistent, I don't think these polls showing Obama ahead hold any water. remember New Hampshire and Ohio. Everyone thought Obama would pull it off, and it turned out the polls were wrong.
I do not doubt, though, that he is closing the gap. And if he does actually win PA, or maybe even come with 5 points, then I think that has to be it for Hillary. I wouldn't place any bets on her dropping out though, unless Obama actually pulls off a landslide.
No, I don't remember that at all. As I recall, polls showed Obama still down but gaining ground on Clinton and did a fair job of reflecting the final outcome. Mainly a Clinton win, but not nearly as strong a win as had been predicted previously.
[...] from memeorandum: The Swamp and Prairie Weather, TPM Election Central, The Moderate Voice (Joe also points out that if Obama gets too close, look for a “hail Mary pass” from [...]
PPP had Clinton up by 26 points just 3 weeks ago in the height of the Wright controversy (and before the speech).
Other polls show movement toward Obama in PA but not of this degree. There's some confirmation as to where the movement is coming from in all these polls: white men. Bob Casey's endorsement has given Obama a lot of credibility among culturally conservative blue collar white men in PA who just don't trust Hillary Clinton (Tuzla reminded voters of her dishonesty) but who want to believe that Obama isn't just fluff. The bus tour has gone a long way toward dispelling the impression that he has no substance.
I agree with Davebo on the polls in OH- Obama was behind Hill but gaining.
As far as the PA poll… a lot can happen in three weeks.
As far as Hillary dropping out… she'd have to lose by at least 15 pts. for her to admit defeat in PA. Anything less would not convince her that she was defeated. She's had a taste of power and knows the benefits of the presidency- she knows exactly what's at stake and will not admit defeat easily. As I recall many people thought she would need convincing wins in both TX and OH in order for her to remain viable. She didn't pull off these convincing wins and yet continues.
It'll take some major and convincing blow for her to bow out.
But given that the superdelegates will wind up deciding this anyway (regardless of how the votes go), she could still pull it off (getting the Dem nomination).