Comments on: (Updated) Al-Maliki Casts His Vote & The Real ‘Byproduct of the Success of the Surge’ http://themoderatevoice.com/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/ An Internet hub for moderates, centrists, and independents, with domestic and international news, analysis, original reporting, and popular features from the left, center, and right Mon, 23 Nov 2009 09:39:43 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: aba23 http://themoderatevoice.com/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/comment-page-1/#comment-131817 aba23 Mon, 31 Mar 2008 00:20:34 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/war/iraq/al-sadr/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/#comment-131817 Again, I'm not disagreeing with your assessment that Sadr is probably the savviest "politician" in the area; it seems to me he's played his hand better than any other would-be leader over the last five years. (And I agree that Maliki is little more than a place-holder.) That said, I'm far from optimistic that the best-outcome semblances you mention (stability, minority rights, political ratification) are likely to flow from Sadr's rise, with or without the US's behind-the-scenes attempts at "managing" him (a problematic concept in itself). <br><br>By the way, there's an interesting thread on Crooked Timber on Sadr's intentions and the Mahdi Army's potency in light of the recent Basra events. Again, I'm not disagreeing with your assessment that Sadr is probably the savviest “politician” in the area; it seems to me he's played his hand better than any other would-be leader over the last five years. (And I agree that Maliki is little more than a place-holder.) That said, I'm far from optimistic that the best-outcome semblances you mention (stability, minority rights, political ratification) are likely to flow from Sadr's rise, with or without the US's behind-the-scenes attempts at “managing” him (a problematic concept in itself).

By the way, there's an interesting thread on Crooked Timber on Sadr's intentions and the Mahdi Army's potency in light of the recent Basra events.

]]> By: DWSUWF http://themoderatevoice.com/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/comment-page-1/#comment-131816 DWSUWF Sun, 30 Mar 2008 21:21:34 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/war/iraq/al-sadr/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/#comment-131816 23, <br>They are not going to turn into a Jeffersonian democracy no matter what happens. The best we can expect at this point is some semblance of stability, with some semblance of respect for minority sects, and some semblance of popular electoral ratification of the leadership so we can bring our troops home. I don't see how we get there from here with Maliki, who is unpopular and cannot stay in power without US Military support. Al-Sadr is popular and is going to be running the place eventually if he is not killed first. It is a question of whether we let it happen through elections, and try to manage his worst instincts behind the scenes with money and muscle - or - fight him, and have no leverage with him at all. 23,
They are not going to turn into a Jeffersonian democracy no matter what happens. The best we can expect at this point is some semblance of stability, with some semblance of respect for minority sects, and some semblance of popular electoral ratification of the leadership so we can bring our troops home. I don't see how we get there from here with Maliki, who is unpopular and cannot stay in power without US Military support. Al-Sadr is popular and is going to be running the place eventually if he is not killed first. It is a question of whether we let it happen through elections, and try to manage his worst instincts behind the scenes with money and muscle – or – fight him, and have no leverage with him at all.

]]> By: aba23 http://themoderatevoice.com/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/comment-page-1/#comment-131814 aba23 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 20:39:55 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/war/iraq/al-sadr/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/#comment-131814 DWSUWF, I don't disagree that they may be heading that way, but I don't see the result as anything that could be called a "resolution" in the near term (and I really don't see what the appropriate US role would be).<br><br>You write, "This scenario would work for Iraq...."<br><br>But only if by "Iraq" you mean (certain factions of) the majority Shi'ia population who continue to nurse axes to be ground for the foreseeable future, and if by "work" you mean they arrive at the answer to the question of who will wield power.<br><br>But the political viability of majority rule only works where all parties substantially buy into the power structure. This can only happen where the rule of law is mightier than the rule of force--for that is the only way minorities will believe they will be treated with fairness and thus accept their subordinated role. <br><br>A look around the world will show that representational democracy has a very mixed record, and the determining factors do not look promising in Iraq. It seems to me unreasonable to expect anything approaching a stable democracy to emerge out of a fractured, disgruntled, well-armed populace living in a country of artificial borders with negligible centralized institutional authority, disproportionate allocation of (globally strategic) resources, and unrestrained interfering meddlers. DWSUWF, I don't disagree that they may be heading that way, but I don't see the result as anything that could be called a “resolution” in the near term (and I really don't see what the appropriate US role would be).

You write, “This scenario would work for Iraq….”

But only if by “Iraq” you mean (certain factions of) the majority Shi'ia population who continue to nurse axes to be ground for the foreseeable future, and if by “work” you mean they arrive at the answer to the question of who will wield power.

But the political viability of majority rule only works where all parties substantially buy into the power structure. This can only happen where the rule of law is mightier than the rule of force–for that is the only way minorities will believe they will be treated with fairness and thus accept their subordinated role.

A look around the world will show that representational democracy has a very mixed record, and the determining factors do not look promising in Iraq. It seems to me unreasonable to expect anything approaching a stable democracy to emerge out of a fractured, disgruntled, well-armed populace living in a country of artificial borders with negligible centralized institutional authority, disproportionate allocation of (globally strategic) resources, and unrestrained interfering meddlers.

]]> By: DWSUWF http://themoderatevoice.com/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/comment-page-1/#comment-131811 DWSUWF Sun, 30 Mar 2008 07:40:08 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/war/iraq/al-sadr/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/#comment-131811 Shuan - great post.<br><br>We went into Iraq to establish Democracy (well - after finding those WMD's). So guess what - In a majority Shiite country, a majority of the Shiites want Moqtada al-Sadr to lead them, rather than Maliki - who did not even live in Iraq for 23 years prior to deposing Saddam Hussein. This is clearly a case where we will <a href="http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/2008/03/george-w-bush-made-moqtada-al-sadr.html"> reap what we have sown.</a><br><br>aba23 - There is an answer. Not a great one, but better than any alternative. It's called "majority rule". The reason why this war never ends, is that the Bush/Cheney administration specifically and the American people generally do not want to admit that the face of "majority rule", and "regime change" and "victory" in Iraq is the face of Moqtada al-Sadr. We will leave Iraq when Moqtada al-Sadr takes over, and not before.<br><br>A realistic "End State" scenario is an “accommodated” (or if you prefer “co-opted” or “bought-out”) Moqtada al-Sadr, or someone just like him. A popular theocrat, elected into leadership in Iraq, still railing at the “Great Satan” from his bully pulpit to maintain his popular support, but behind the scenes working with the US at the precise intersection of US interest in a stable Iraq, and his lofty personal ambition for power on a world stage. This scenario would work for Iraq and would work for us.<br><br>Unfrtunately, this scenario does not work for the legacy of George W. Bush. So it cannot happen until we have a new president. Hopefully then it will not be too late. Shuan – great post.

We went into Iraq to establish Democracy (well – after finding those WMD's). So guess what – In a majority Shiite country, a majority of the Shiites want Moqtada al-Sadr to lead them, rather than Maliki – who did not even live in Iraq for 23 years prior to deposing Saddam Hussein. This is clearly a case where we will reap what we have sown.

aba23 – There is an answer. Not a great one, but better than any alternative. It's called “majority rule”. The reason why this war never ends, is that the Bush/Cheney administration specifically and the American people generally do not want to admit that the face of “majority rule”, and “regime change” and “victory” in Iraq is the face of Moqtada al-Sadr. We will leave Iraq when Moqtada al-Sadr takes over, and not before.

A realistic “End State” scenario is an “accommodated” (or if you prefer “co-opted” or “bought-out”) Moqtada al-Sadr, or someone just like him. A popular theocrat, elected into leadership in Iraq, still railing at the “Great Satan” from his bully pulpit to maintain his popular support, but behind the scenes working with the US at the precise intersection of US interest in a stable Iraq, and his lofty personal ambition for power on a world stage. This scenario would work for Iraq and would work for us.

Unfrtunately, this scenario does not work for the legacy of George W. Bush. So it cannot happen until we have a new president. Hopefully then it will not be too late.

]]> By: Donklephant » Blog Archive » George W. Bush made Moqtada al-Sadr http://themoderatevoice.com/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/comment-page-1/#comment-111505 Donklephant » Blog Archive » George W. Bush made Moqtada al-Sadr Sun, 30 Mar 2008 06:14:35 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/war/iraq/al-sadr/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/#comment-111505 [...] a internal Iraq political struggle, and putting us on the side of an unpopular leader attempting to subvert the popular will with military [...] [...] a internal Iraq political struggle, and putting us on the side of an unpopular leader attempting to subvert the popular will with military [...]

]]> By: Escalating Civil War In Iraq Brings Pressure Upon Candidate Who Promised Us “a long, tough road” In Iraq If Elected http://themoderatevoice.com/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/comment-page-1/#comment-111504 Escalating Civil War In Iraq Brings Pressure Upon Candidate Who Promised Us “a long, tough road” In Iraq If Elected Sun, 30 Mar 2008 02:18:58 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/war/iraq/al-sadr/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/#comment-111504 [...] blogger opinions, courtesy of MemeOrandum: Think Progress; The Washington Monthly; The Newshoggers; The Moderate Voice Tags: Politics, Think, National Politics, War on Terror, Insider Predictions, Vice President [...] [...] blogger opinions, courtesy of MemeOrandum: Think Progress; The Washington Monthly; The Newshoggers; The Moderate Voice Tags: Politics, Think, National Politics, War on Terror, Insider Predictions, Vice President [...]

]]> By: aba23 http://themoderatevoice.com/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/comment-page-1/#comment-131810 aba23 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 01:48:39 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/war/iraq/al-sadr/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/#comment-131810 I have heard and read a number of smart, nuanced descriptions of the ever-developing problems facing Iraq, yet in the six years since the build-up to this war I have not come across any serious commentator who could lay out a persuasive case setting forth actions (internal and/or external) that would likely lead to a desirable resolution, or even anything approaching a tolerably less dangerous level of stability. <br><br>The demographics (religious, ethnic, factional, regional), the desperation, the power vacuum, the oil, the US legacy, the ubiquitous weaponry (market-traded and improvised), the opportunistic neighbors (state and stateless), ...<br><br>Whatever policy this country adopts, it must be based on an open-eyed appraisal of all these factors and more, instead of the wishful thinking that has guided us until this point. I have heard and read a number of smart, nuanced descriptions of the ever-developing problems facing Iraq, yet in the six years since the build-up to this war I have not come across any serious commentator who could lay out a persuasive case setting forth actions (internal and/or external) that would likely lead to a desirable resolution, or even anything approaching a tolerably less dangerous level of stability.

The demographics (religious, ethnic, factional, regional), the desperation, the power vacuum, the oil, the US legacy, the ubiquitous weaponry (market-traded and improvised), the opportunistic neighbors (state and stateless), …

Whatever policy this country adopts, it must be based on an open-eyed appraisal of all these factors and more, instead of the wishful thinking that has guided us until this point.

]]> By: jmcdonough120 http://themoderatevoice.com/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/comment-page-1/#comment-131808 jmcdonough120 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 00:39:28 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/war/iraq/al-sadr/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/#comment-131808 from swimming freestyle:<br><br>"Iraq is a sovereign state, or so we claim. Why would U.S. forces assist the sovereign Iraqi government and Iraqi Army in their attempts to squash internal, anti-government insurgents? <br><br>We don't have a horse in this race. Wouldn't it be in our national interest to allow Iraq to settle it's own internal power struggles?"<br>from <a href="http://swimmingfreestyle.typepad.com">http://swimmingfreestyle.typepad.com</a> from swimming freestyle:

“Iraq is a sovereign state, or so we claim. Why would U.S. forces assist the sovereign Iraqi government and Iraqi Army in their attempts to squash internal, anti-government insurgents?

We don't have a horse in this race. Wouldn't it be in our national interest to allow Iraq to settle it's own internal power struggles?”
from http://swimmingfreestyle.typepad.com

]]> By: runasim http://themoderatevoice.com/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/comment-page-1/#comment-131805 runasim Sat, 29 Mar 2008 23:04:39 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/war/iraq/al-sadr/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/#comment-131805 My admiration , Shaun, for trying to organze this mess in outline form.<br><br>As for myself, this strikes me as much more complicated and multi-layered. I don't think the US has the slghtest clue what new hornet's nest it just put its <br>military boot into, while disregarding the 'no military solution' maxim. <br><br>Ayatollah Sistani has said that his 'no' to repeated requests that he put out a fatwah against US troops won't last forever. <br>That adds a new wrinkle on the story. especially in light of the fact that alSadr aspires to become an Ayatollah himself (this would happen in Iran).<br><br>It looks like a power struggle for oil: Bush and alMaliki against alSadr.<br><br>I wonder if AlQueda (forgotten for the moment) will take advantage of the situation. <br><br>There are many such wrinkles., too many for my tired old brain to take in all at one go. My admiration , Shaun, for trying to organze this mess in outline form.

As for myself, this strikes me as much more complicated and multi-layered. I don't think the US has the slghtest clue what new hornet's nest it just put its
military boot into, while disregarding the 'no military solution' maxim.

Ayatollah Sistani has said that his 'no' to repeated requests that he put out a fatwah against US troops won't last forever.
That adds a new wrinkle on the story. especially in light of the fact that alSadr aspires to become an Ayatollah himself (this would happen in Iran).

It looks like a power struggle for oil: Bush and alMaliki against alSadr.

I wonder if AlQueda (forgotten for the moment) will take advantage of the situation.

There are many such wrinkles., too many for my tired old brain to take in all at one go.

]]> By: maetienne http://themoderatevoice.com/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/comment-page-1/#comment-131804 maetienne Sat, 29 Mar 2008 15:48:28 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/war/iraq/al-sadr/18669/nouri-al-maliki-casts-his-vote-the-real-byproduct-of-the-success-of-the-surge/#comment-131804 Shaun,<br><br>Thanks for your thoughtful analysis on this issue. I get so tired of the standard "good guys/bad terrorists" analysis in the media. There will be no hope for stopping this madness if our leaders refuse to see things as they really are and acknowledge the major problems that we are causing because of our unconditional and open ended military support of al-Maliki's government. Shaun,

Thanks for your thoughtful analysis on this issue. I get so tired of the standard “good guys/bad terrorists” analysis in the media. There will be no hope for stopping this madness if our leaders refuse to see things as they really are and acknowledge the major problems that we are causing because of our unconditional and open ended military support of al-Maliki's government.

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