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McCain and Obama: More the same than different on Foreign Affairs

We have had the benefit of two major addresses on foreign affairs by two leading candidates Today’s Senator McCain To The Los Angeles World Affairs Council and yesterdays remarks of Senator Barack Obama and The World Beyond Iraq

I read both of them and to me they are much more aligned than different. Except for a few pointed comments by McCain about Russia and the need to stay in Iraq until the government is stable, the text could have been read by either Candidate. The differences between these two inspired leaders are not so much about strategy as about tactics. To me McCain seems to think first in terms of the use of force while Obama seems to lead with an initial instinct for diplomacy. But most centrally is the tactic of how much to rely on force to promote Iraqi stability and how much to rely on other forms of persuasion.

Again, I thought they were much on the same page on international cooperation, disarmament, climate change, hearts and minds, autocratic regimes, etc. The difference is in the details. And while I respect and appreciate both gentlemen, I favor Obama as the voice most likely to be effective at persuading our allies to forgive us and our adversaries to open their minds to new possibilities.

  • Obama would offer the Iranian regime a choice. If Iran abandons its nuclear program and support for terrorism, we will offer incentives like membership in the World Trade Organization, economic investments, and a move toward normal diplomatic relations. If Iran continues its troubling behavior, we will step up our economic pressure and political isolation.

    From the lefts own think tank. Council on Foreign Relations.

    What is the status of Europe’s nuclear negotiations with Iran? They are in trouble. Since October 2003, Iran and three members of the European Union (EU)–Britain, France, and Germany–have engaged in negotiations to ensure that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons. The Europeans have asked Iran to relinquish its uranium-enrichment program because the technology can easily be adapted for military uses. Iranians, however, say they will not give up what they see as their sovereign right to enrich uranium as part of a peaceful nuclear program.

    Sorry. negotiation doesnt work. But Im sure he will do an excellent job begging the Iranians to forgive us.
  • Slamfu
    Cuz bombing them is going to wrap everything up so nicely and neatly and teach those darn a-rabs a much needed lesson right? They've been on the brink of caving to economic pressures for awhile now, and if our gov't stopped fucking around in Iraq and actually worked a bit harder to put the screws to Iran we'd have them coughing up that program sooner rather than later. There are so many ways bombing Iran can backfire on us its not even funny.
  • Thanks Slamfu. I'm sure everyone appreciates how swimmingly the "bomb em back to the 12th century" strategy is working for us in Iraq. And Whocares? So glad you're not a negotiator for me, because if you were? You're fired. Anyone who can't negotiate because others have failed is a guaranteed failure.

    75% of Iran's oil revenue is in Euros. You think the EU threatened to boycott them?

    So, because they never really intended to stop buying from Iran (just as we don't intend to stop buying from Venezuela), their (and our) negotiating position is pure BS. I won't try to present a primer here in diplomacy or negotiation. I think it's clear that would be pointless.

    Iran has a valid point. Many nations are now looking at nuclear as a key part of their energy portfolio. Who gave us the power to dictate what energy sources Iran can pursue. Is anyone dictating what we can consider? And what is this really about? The dollar is dying as a global currency. Iran is looking for Euros, not dollars, and we can't stand the prospect that petroeuros and petroyen are what matter now.
  • OK, I guess that no longer works here either

    http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=45397§...
  • I give up. Here:

    Iran shifts oil sales away from dollar
    Sat, 01 Mar 2008 14:19:28
    Hojjatollah Ghanimifard
    Deputy head of the National Iranian Oil Company for international affairs says Iran has completely dropped dollar in its oil sales.

    “We issue invoices in dollars and agree with clients that the letters of credit and other means of payment will have a non-dollar basis,” he said.

    In an interview with The Financial Times, Hojjatollah Ghanimifard said that over the past three months, Iran has received 75 percent of the proceeds from its oil sales in euros and the remaining 25 percent in the Japanese currency, yen.

    Analysts are of the view that Iran's oil revenues have enabled the country to bear the costs of UN sanctions and US attempts to prevent dollar transactions through third party banks.

    Ali Shams-Ardakani, head of the energy committee of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, said the move away from the dollar was “absolutely right” and was economically justifiable on the grounds that it helped prevent losses due to the fall in the value of the US currency. “It should have happened much earlier,” FT quoted him as saying.

    Ghanimifard did not deny there have been some problems for Iran in opening letters of credit but did not elaborate on the extent of the problem or which banks were involved.

    “Sanctions could not harm our exports and those banks that have problems issuing letters of credit for our clients are the ones that lose income,” he said, insisting that trying different channels did not cost Iran “even one single cent”.

    “We understood that money does not exist only in the west,” Ghanimifard said.
  • Thank you Green.

    You make the entire point for me better then I could myself. You are right. We have nothing that the Iranians need in order to give up their nuclear ambitions. Even our Europeans friends have been negotiating with them only to see the Iranians shift from Dollars to Euros and now what.

    What is Barak Obama going to offer the Iranians to give up their nuclear ambitions?

    We have nothing and even his own policy is a failure before it begins. We will give them a choice and if they dont choose wisely then we will punish them. A stated position like this is doomed to fail.

    While I dont pretend to be a negotiator I certainly understand the basis of what negotiation is all about. Putting your strategy on the table for everyone to see is hardly the way to get what you want.

    Unless of course the only thing you want is an agreement no matter what the cost. I believe that is the only thing Obama wants. An agreement and he does not care the price.

    If thats the case. That is not negotiation. That is capitulation.
  • OK, what negotiating points do we have?

    First, we can offer to provide enriched uranium (not bomb-grade) in whatever quantity they need for electricity generation, in return for dropping their plans to enrich their own. This would have to be held in a third-party fuel bank so the US can't shut it off at the whim of our President. Why should they trust us? (by the way, we could easily provide it for free far cheaper than the cost of attacking them. Not suggesting it be free, but we've seen the devastating cost in blood and treasure of preemptive war.)

    Second, we agree to go back to our traditional "no first use" stance and refute the "preventive strike" policies.

    Third, we work with them to stabilize Iraq in the best way possible, which sadly and thanks to GW Bush, is an Iran-friendly Shiite majority rule. All we can hope for now is a peaceful unaggressive Shiite state.

    Fourth, we're the world's biggest oil consumer and in fact the biggest consumer period, hence their biggest potential customer. We can offer them a resumption of trade.

    Fifth, we can negotiate with Europe and Japan, our allies, to get serious about the situation and threaten to stop buying oil from Iran (and mean it!). Israel can also pressure Europe and Japan to get serious about this.

    I'm not an international negotiator either, and Obama will have many more points to include because he will have access to information that we don't. My main point is that we don't have to go it alone, there are LOTS of stones unturned, and we have been just as disingenuous as Europe in this negotiation.

    Finally, Iran will eventually build a bomb. Pakistan has it, North Korea has it, China and Russia have plenty. Those regimes are no less scary than Iran and we don't need to quake in fear of Iran.

    The threat to the USA is much greater from unguarded nuclear materials around the world; from the still-unaddressed weak security for nuclear plants, the nonexistent security for "low level" nuclear waste, and even medical nuclear materials, any of which are a much more realistic threat than that of Iran 1) building a bomb, 2) an intercontinental missile and 3) seeking the suicidal option of using them.

    I don't fear Iran. I don't embrace the stupidity of McCain's "bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran" concept of international "diplomacy". I believe the former is far less threat to American lives than the latter.
  • First, we can offer to provide enriched uranium (not bomb-grade) in whatever quantity they need for electricity generation, in return for dropping their plans to enrich their own.

    Russia offered to do this. Iran rejected it.

    Green. You do not offer negotiation. You offer Captitulation from the simple standpoint that Iran has branded America as the Great Satan. They do not want our business. In fact they have encouraged their neighbors to not do business with the USA.

    We have nothing they need except for us to leave the Middle East. They have hated us since we supported coups by the shah of Iran against perhaps the most popular leader in their history. They hate us. Nothing we can do in this time frame in history will change that.

    Certainly not Obama. Yes he might reach some tentative agreements for the ambitious sake of reaching an agreement only to find out as Bill Clinton did (North Korea)that they were laughing behind us all the way to the bank.

    Your points are pie in the sky. They are Capitulation because the USA receives nothing in return except promise of what? Oil? We get plenty from everyone else. They will be nice in Iraq? You really believe this?

    Capitulation, not negotiation.
  • Not at all, whocares. Negotiation is about finding mutual interests, even between combatants. Russia? Oh please! Russia and Europe, along with China are the SOURCE of the components for Iran's nuclear program. If Iran doesn't want commerce with us (we use Iranian oil, BTW) how about our "allies" and our "most favored" trading partner, China. If we (and Israel) have no influence with any of them to put the economic screws to Iran, then hang it up. We've tried the "go it alone" cowboy diplomacy strategy with disastrous results. It appears that is what you advocate we try again, but with a vastly more powerful nation.

    Our own National Intelligence Estimate says Iran is NOT working on weapons. I believe we're being lied to again, just like Iraq, about an "imminent threat" that does not exist. Clearly you have consumed the Kool Aid and are buying this line. So what's your solution? Bomb them? Nuke them? Bring on the "end times"? Is that your proposal?

    Oh, and "leave the Middle East?" Why the hell have we not been working on exactly that for the last 8 years? Why in the world do we want to perpetuate our dependence and pour tons of money into this troublespot?
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