It really doesn't matter what everyone else thinks are the chances of Hillary winning. What's most important is what she thinks. We've been down this road before- saying that Hillary needs a big win to continue.

The bottom line is that whoever receives the Dem. nomination will need the support of the superdelegates. As long as Hillary is still in the race she does have a good chance of receiving enough superdelegate support to cinch the nomination.

So I think the right question to ask is this, “What will it take to convince Hillary that she should drop out of the race?”

I think the answer to that is the corollary to what many people believe (many people believe that she needs a convincing win in PA to stay in the race). I think in order for Hillary to drop out of the race she needs a convincing LOSS in PA. I think a convincing loss to her in PA would be 60/40.

So I think that if Hillary can garner at least 40% of the votes in PA, then she stays in until the convention. Unless she also loses by a largish lead (say, by 10 pts. or so) both Indiana and NC. Then she might drop out before the convention.

Otherwise she'll drag this out and give the presidency to McCain. Particularly since she likes McCain more than she likes Obama.