The latest Gallup daily tracking poll shows that the controversies swirling around Democratic Senator Barack Obama have taken their toll — in the form of rival Senator Hillary Clinton taking a healthy lead in the numbers:
New Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds Hillary Clinton with a 49% to 42% lead over Barack Obama in national Democratic voters’ presidential nomination preference.
Obama’s campaign has been plagued by controversial remarks made by his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Obama delivered a major speech on race Tuesday to try to move beyond the controversy. The initial indications are that the speech has not halted Clinton’s gaining momentum, as she led by a similar margin in Tuesday night’s polling as compared to Monday night’s polling.
There’s good news for GOP Senator John McCain:
John McCain may be benefiting in the short-term from the highly charged Democratic race. He holds a statistically significant lead over Obama, 47% to 43%, in registered voters’ preferences for the general presidential election. That is the first time any of the candidates has held a statistically significant lead since Gallup Poll Daily tracking began reporting on the general election race last week. McCain’s 48% to 45% advantage over Clinton is not statistically significant, but it is the first time he has had an edge over her in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.
So now the questions are: has Obama peaked? And what kind of impact will his speech have?
The only certainty: the prime beneficiary right now is McCain. It’s too early to hazard a guess on the impact of Obama’s speech. It’ll likely prove to be a positive turning point for him or perhaps a roadpost in a downward polling spiral. But it’s likely to have some impact.