Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Clinton Has 7% Lead Over Obama
The latest Gallup daily tracking poll shows that the controversies swirling around Democratic Senator Barack Obama have taken their toll — in the form of rival Senator Hillary Clinton taking a healthy lead in the numbers:
New Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds Hillary Clinton with a 49% to 42% lead over Barack Obama in national Democratic voters’ presidential nomination preference.
Obama’s campaign has been plagued by controversial remarks made by his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Obama delivered a major speech on race Tuesday to try to move beyond the controversy. The initial indications are that the speech has not halted Clinton’s gaining momentum, as she led by a similar margin in Tuesday night’s polling as compared to Monday night’s polling.
There’s good news for GOP Senator John McCain:
John McCain may be benefiting in the short-term from the highly charged Democratic race. He holds a statistically significant lead over Obama, 47% to 43%, in registered voters’ preferences for the general presidential election. That is the first time any of the candidates has held a statistically significant lead since Gallup Poll Daily tracking began reporting on the general election race last week. McCain’s 48% to 45% advantage over Clinton is not statistically significant, but it is the first time he has had an edge over her in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.
So now the questions are: has Obama peaked? And what kind of impact will his speech have?
The only certainty: the prime beneficiary right now is McCain. It’s too early to hazard a guess on the impact of Obama’s speech. It’ll likely prove to be a positive turning point for him or perhaps a roadpost in a downward polling spiral. But it’s likely to have some impact.
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9 Responses to “Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Clinton Has 7% Lead Over Obama”
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I'm just going to chalk this up to the usual pollster kiss of death that has been typical of the primary season this year. Sorry Hillary.
I can't tell from the data whether the shift is away from Obama or towards Clinton. Are voters disenchanted with Obama or are they concerned that the Wright Issue will make him less electable because they doubt the open mindedness of the general electorate.
I personally find him more compelling as time goes on in part because I don't feel that either McCain or Clinton will bridge differences as well.
I would say that the data shift has gone towards Sen. Clinton as much as it is away from Obama. Voters seem to be more and more disenchanted with Obama based on this event than anything, and I do not see him being able to outrun it. As an Anybody But Obama supporter, I'm quite glad this story has legs.
That kind of movement says something about how fickle some voters are. Changing minds based on solid information is one thing, but blowing around with the wind suggests to me that some voters haven't informed themselves well enough to know their own minds.
“blowing around with the wind suggests to me that some voters haven't informed themselves well enough to know their own minds”
Or they're just undecided. Whatever the reason, obviously Clinton remains a definite contender through Pennsylvania and probably all the way to the Dem convention.
Rasmussen showed opposite movement, with Obama opening up to a 5 point lead for the first time since the Wright controversy hit. Let's see what Gallup has tomorrow and Friday. Gallup says that Obama truly bottomed out in Monday's night's polling (this is a 3-day average). When Monday falls from the average, let's see if Obama recovers. We'll really know on Friday.
Interestingly, Rasmussen saw a huge hit to Obama in Friday night's polling (as reported on this blog). But now the Friday polling has rolled out so his numbers have improved.
Why Rasmussen picked up the plunge for Obama on Friday and Clinton on Monday is hard to say. But I bet Obama will recover nicely in the Gallup poll once Monday's results roll away.
Keep an eye on this over the next few days. Voters are undecided, but Obama looks quite a bit different after his speech on Tuesday than he did when a ranting Wright hit the airwaves over the weekend.
[...] that name. So I went on a Black Cab Taxi tour of London. A private two hours oftravelblog.viator.comGallup Daily Tracking Poll: Clinton Has 7% Lead Over ObamaGallup Daily Tracking Poll: Clinton Has 7% Lead Over Obama March 19th, 2008 by JOE GANDELMAN The [...]