No Do-Over in Florida
It looks like there won’t be a do-over Democratic contest in Florida, mail-in or otherwise. “We researched every potential alternative process — from caucuses to county conventions to mail-in elections — but no plan could come anywhere close to being viable in Florida,” said state party chairwoman Karen Thurman. The state’s congressional delegation had already come out against the do-over plan.
So what now?
It is unrealistic to think that Florida’s delegates won’t be seated at the convention. They will. A way will be found — and there are other options, as we discussed last week. For example, the results of the “illegitimate” primary could count. Whatever the rules — and the rules are such that Florida was stripped of its delegates, making the primary essentially a non-contest — a deal could be struck whereby delegates are allocated based on that vote, a Clinton win, perhaps a deal struck in conjunction with a similar sort of deal in Michigan. Or, the delegates could be allocated based on that vote, but each delegate would receive only half a vote at the convention, an option that would halve Clinton’s margin of victory.
Well, those are the options. A third option would simply be for nothing to happen, for the rules to be adhered to, for Florida to remain stripped of its delegates. Florida (and Floridians) would be upset, but, well, that’s politics for you.
Thurman, needless to say, opposes this third option: “This doesn’t mean that Democrats are giving up on Florida voters. It means that a solution will have to come from the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee, which is scheduled to meet again in April.” Like I said, a way will be found.
Needless to say, this is good news for Obama and bad news for Clinton. Even if the results of the illegitimate primary are allowed to count, with allocated delegates receiving full votes at the convention, Obama will have avoided a potentially damaging loss in a do-over. Ben Smith: “This is a real setback for Hillary, who could have gotten both delegates, momentum, and — crucially — a stronger chance to claim a popular vote lead out of the revote.”
So what now?
Well… a compromise deal in Florida, a compromise deal in Michigan — if, that is, the state parties can get their bureaucratic and cost-sensitive acts together, and if, that is, the Obama and Clinton campaigns can reach some sort of quid pro quo.
5 Responses to “No Do-Over in Florida”
I am a fan seating Florida and Michigan delegates in proportion to the number of delegates Obama and Clinton now have nationally. This is because without a full campaign there is no other fair way to allocation delegates between them. And disenfranchising so many voters is just bad democratic form.
It was illegitimate. Remove the quotes for honesty.
It's likely something will be done with these two states but they have no right to see their delegates seated at all, and should approach this issue bearing this in mind — along with others who want them to be seated. You owe the rest of us contrition, merely as a beginning…
“You owe the rest of us contrition, merely as a beginning…”
In case anyone has questions, the “you” here means those who want the delegates seated.
I just don't get this statement in the posting by Ben Smith, “This is a real setback for Hillary, who could have gotten both delegates, momentum, and — crucially — a stronger chance to claim a popular vote lead out of the revote.”
Hillary already got 50% of the vote to O's 33%. The FL vote occurred early during the primary season. I think if it were re-done, then O would pick up more delegates. Unless Ben Smith believes that H has a lot of momentum now….
I don't think the FL delegates should be seated. Didn't FL voters know what they were risking when FL changed their primary date? But we can't have states change voting dates just because they think the change puts them in a more prominent position. We've seen how all the primaries/caucuses have been important to date, from Iowa to WY. The irony is that FL may have changed there primary date so they would have a bigger say, when it turns out that they have no say at all. Serves them right.
On MI: same thoughts as FL, really.
But if the Dems are able to do a revote in MI (which seems more likely than FL, because the GOP controlled politics in FL won't let a revote go forward) then the FL delegates will need to be seated, too.
For the Florida delegates to deserve to be seated, Florida must vote again, too.