Florida Primary Re-Vote Nix Increases Clinton Difficulties

The Democratic party’s monumental mess involving the Michigan and Florida delegations to the Democratic Convention is messier than ever with news that Florida won’t do a primary re-do vote via mail-in ballot — news that will increase difficulties Senator Hillary Clinton faces in overturning delegate-front-runner Senator Barack Obama in an extremely tight race.

It seems nothing is easy for the Democrats this time around: the decision to not do anything (for now at least) on the Florida issue sets the stage for a major credentials battle this summer. And the best man/woman could find embittered supporters of the other side staying home.

The New York Time’s The Caucus blog:

Karen Thurman, head of the Sunshine State’s Democratic party, has issued a letter acknowledging defeat for the idea, much as she knew it was a long-shot possibility last week when she first sent around a draft proposal outlining the ways it could have been accomplished.

The state’s Congressional Democratic delegation opposed it; the Republicans who control the state Legislature opposed it. Opponents cited the inability to verify signatures as one hurdle; the cost estimated at more than $10 million also was a significant obstacle.

But it seemed one way out of the impasse and one that could have benefited Clinton when the final votes were counted. It’d also have provided a way to legitimize a powder-keg situation over the Florida delegation and the primaries.

The Caucus has this exasperated statement from Thurmond — which perhaps is symbolic of the intra-party polarizing Clinton-Obama struggle itself:

Last week, the Florida Democratic Party laid out the only existing way that we can comply with D.N.C. Rules – a statewide revote run by the Party – and asked for input.

Thousands of people responded. We spent the weekend reviewing your messages, and while your reasons vary widely, the consensus is clear: Florida doesn’t want to vote again.

So we won’t.

A party-run primary or caucus has been ruled out, and it’s simply not possible for the state to hold another election, even if the party were to pay for it. Republican Speaker of the Florida House Marco Rubio refuses to even consider that option. Florida is finally moving to paper ballots, which is a good thing, but it means that at least 15 counties do not have the capacity to handle a major election before the June 10th D.N.C. primary deadline.

This doesn’t mean that Democrats are giving up on Florida voters. It means that a solution will have to come from the D.N.C. Rules & Bylaws Committee, which is scheduled to meet again in April.

CBS notes that in this controversy, Clinton was outnumbered:

Members of Florida’s congressional delegation unanimously opposed the plan, and Barack Obama expressed concern about the security of a mail-in vote organized so quickly. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign expressed disappointment with Florida’s decision.

“Today’s announcement brings us no closer to counting the votes of the nearly 1.7 million people who voted in January,” Clinton spokesman Phil Singer said. “We hope the Obama campaign shares our belief that Florida’s voters must be counted and cannot be disenfranchised.”

Obama’s campaign said it looked forward to an agreement on what to do about Florida.

“We hope that all parties can agree on a fair seating of the Florida delegates so that Florida can participate in the Democratic Convention, and we look forward to working with the Florida Democratic Party and competing vigorously in the state so that Barack Obama can put Florida back into the Democratic column in November,” said Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor

Meanwhile, Bill Clinton argues that Obama in-effect campaigned there:

While toning down the racial remarks dotting the Democratic contest, the man who would be first husband accused Obama of surreptitiously running ads in Florida despite an agreement not to campaign there in response to the Democratic National Committee’s penalty of the state for holding its primary early. The DNC is refusing to seat both Michigan and Florida’s delegates at the national convention in August.

“No one advertised, as that was required, except Senator Obama,” he said. “I think it is very unusual for campaign to buy a national cable buy, they are the least efficient way to do it. … But the point is, he had it. There was big turnout. Hillary won the election by 17 points. And the delegates have been allocated appropriately. … Under the party rules, they could seat the superdelegates and then seat the others and only count them about half a delegate, which would cost her 19 delegates through no fault of her own or their own.”

Clinton also blames Florida Republicans for the Florida delegates debacle:

The 42nd U.S. president also pinned the Democratic presidential nominating mess in Florida on the Republican-led Legislature, suggesting the DNC punished Florida voters for something the GOP did. Clinton said Florida Democrats begged to have their election on Feb. 5 — as per party rules — but were denied by Republicans.

“Florida presents a difficult problem for the Democrats because even though Florida moved out of line, the Democrats are totally blameless. The Republican governor, the Republican Legislature moved the Florida date up,” he said.

As for Michigan, Clinton said he thinks his wife won fair and square there despite hers being the only first-tier Democratic candidate name on the ballot.

“In Michigan, she won, and there was a very determined local effort to get people to vote
against her and for uncommitted. But the other candidates voluntarily took their names off the ballot, I think, trying to help themselves in Iowa and because they knew she was going to win Michigan. … So I don’t know what is going to happen. It is sort of above my pay grade. I have no — I’m not involved in the negotiations between the campaigns,” he said.

It’s clear others — such as the DNC and Obama supporters — are unlikely to agree with Bill Clinton’s version of events.

But there seems to be some consensus in the blogosphere that the net result of this is not helpful to Hillary Clinton:

–Megan McArdle:

Meanwhile, there’s a giant hurdle in Michigan, as my colleague Marc Ambinder reports. A lot of Democrats voted in the Republican primary, since Obama wasn’t even on the Democratic ballot. It’s not sure-fire that they would have broken disproportionately for Obama, but that seems like the way to bet.

This seems like a pretty huge blow for Hillary; she’ll have an uphill battle getting those delegates seated. I’d imagine there will be some sort of compromise where the superdelegates get seated, but the regular delegates are shut out.

–Ed Morrissey:

Florida doesn’t need to bother with a revote. Unlike Michigan, the ballot had all of the contenders on it when Florida Democrats went to the polls in January. Some claim that the sanction on the primary depressed turnout, but even if it did, it’s impossible to say whether that disadvantaged one candidate over the other. Over 1.6 million Democrats cast votes in the primary, just a little less than the Republicans — certainly enough to legitimize the results, if the DNC desires.

I suspect the DNC will grant Florida half of its delegates, giving Hillary a victory but minimizing its impact. She’ll wind up with a 19-delegate gain rather than a 38-delegate gain.

--Talk Left:

Thurman says the consensus of the thousands of e-mails was that Floridians don’t want to vote again..

Of course they don’t. More than 1.7 million Democrats already voted and they chose Hillary. They want their vote to count. And it should. The DNC is the culprit here. They need to retract the penalty and award and seat the delegates in accordance with the January 29 vote.