Poll: McCain Beats Obama Clinton With Nader Impact

A new Zogby poll shows that GOP nominee-to-be Senator John McCain would beat both Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama in a general election — and that third party candidate Ralph Nader would definitely have an impact.

In fact, Pollster Zogby writes, there are signs that Nader may win enough support in the polls to get into the Presidential debates.

McCain would beat Clinton 45% to 39% with Nader getting 6% of the vote. McCain would beat Obama 44% to 39% with Nader getting 5% of the vote.

The introduction of long-time activist Ralph Nader into the mix is having an effect on the race, as he wins enough support to make a difference, the poll shows. Nader entered the race recently, charging that there is little difference between the Republican and Democratic parties and their presidential candidates. Using the same argument eight years ago, his presence on the ballot in Florida may well have tipped the presidential election away from Democrat Al Gore and in favor of George W. Bush. His run four years ago yielded less dramatic results, but the political atmosphere has changed since 2004, and may be more favorable for him again, the Zogby survey shows.

At first glance, the reaction might be that it’s too early for an analysis since McCain himself has not faced a Democratic onslaught. But the increasing acrimony of the Obama-Clinton race, and the likelihood that in the battle over the delegate count there will be more controversies (like this) and that the Superdelegates may intervene, the prospect for the Democrats seems more grim each day.

The prospect is for a significant chunk of the Obama or Clinton side deciding to sit on its hands on election day — or cast a protest vote. Which is where Nader comes in:

As is the case in the McCain-Clinton-Nader contest, Obama wins among voters under age 30, while McCain leads among all voters age 30 and older. Nader wins 15% support among those under age 30, but has little support among older voters.

Pollster Zogby writes:

Nader’s presence in the race can potentially turn a lulu of a race into an absolute tizzy. The messages to Democrats are clear – number one, Nader may win enough support to get into the general election debates. Number two, what could be at risk is support among several key constituencies that the Democratic Party candidate will need to win in November, notably younger voters, independents, and progressives.