Polls: Obama Now Hits 50% In Two Polls (UPDATED Previous Post)
For some weeks now Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama have been basically tied in the Gallup Daily tracking poll — but now Obama has opened up a lead in two polls that put him at 50%.
In the Gallup Poll, the Illinois Senator opened up a six point lead:
Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton in national Democratic nomination preferences by a statistically significant 6-percentage point margin, 50% to 44%, according to Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews from March 11-13.
This is the largest advantage either contestant has had in the race since late February. Obama had a strong showing in Thursday night interviews, which added to his slim lead in interviews conducted Tuesday and Wednesday gives him his current 6-point margin.
Then there’s the new lead in Rasmussen daily tracking poll:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 50% to 42% in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. This is the first time Obama has ever reached 50% in fifteen months of daily polling on the race.
Among African-American voters, Obama leads 84% to 9%. Among White voters, Clinton leads 50% to 39%. Two-thirds of voters who now support Clinton are women. Among white women Clinton leads by twenty-five. In Pennsylvania, Clinton leads 51% to 38%.
Could the fuss over resigned Clinton campaign official Geraldine Ferraro’s comments saying Obama is where he is because he’s black, coupled with Clinton’s apology, have anything to do with it?
Trending is the key in polling. It could (and probably will) revert to a see-saw. But if either Obama or Clinton gets and holds a lead for a while or increases it, it will be a trend shift.
(This is an updated version of the earlier post, which contained only Gallup Poll info.)
4 Responses to “Polls: Obama Now Hits 50% In Two Polls (UPDATED Previous Post)”
[...] The Public Radio Exchange wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptGallup Poll: Obama Now Leads Clinton 6 Percent Nationally March 14th, 2008 by JOE GANDELMAN For some weeks now Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama have been basically tied in the Gallup Daily tracking poll — but now Obama has opened up a six point lead: Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton in national Democratic nomination preferences by a statistically significant 6-percentage point margin, 50% to 44%, according to Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews from March 11-13. This is [...]
[...] The Public Radio Exchange wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptGallup Poll: Obama Now Leads Clinton 6 Percent Nationally March 14th, 2008 by JOE GANDELMAN For some weeks now Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama have been basically tied in the Gallup Daily tracking poll — but now Obama has opened up a six point lead: Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton in national Democratic nomination preferences by a statistically significant 6-percentage point margin, 50% to 44%, according to Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews from March 11-13. This is [...]
Thank goodness you did not spoil the weekend for all the D's around here, Joe, by going on to report that both polls show McCain in a dead heat with either Dem.
I especially took note of Gallup's comment……..”Were the general election for president held “today,” it appears either Democratic candidate would provide a stiff challenge against the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain.”
I guess that means they must view McCain as the favorite while the other two are challengers?
I've thought for a long time, that these minute-by-minute polls are a seriously negaive influence.
They do much more than repoort on trends; they indluence trends.
They influence perception in the same way that the endless news analysts do.