Defining Barack Obama

Well.... this contest is being prolonged by Hillary. She should just step down gracefully. And I do recognize that she has a right to stay in as long as she wants but by doing so the party only becomes more fractured. So those are the choices: Hillary step aside now to minimize damage to the party, or she continue to seek the nomination which will continue to damage the party.

She will do anything it takes to get the nomination, even if it means dividing the party. Since the Dems need to pull together, she needs to exit now.

He said the Clinton campaign is trying to make white voters “see him more as a black candidate than as a person who has a message and a vision.”

Exactly. I don't recall Obama ever bringing up the issue of his race. He's run his campaign about as clean as you can against an opponent that is willing to cast aspersions at an alarming rate.

We all talk about how we want a new kind of politics, one not driven by fear and identity. Finally, we have a national candidate that has shown the ability to transcend the pettiness we thought could never be exercised from our political culture.

Stockster: There is no reason for Clinton to get out before Pennsylvania, and in her case it makes perfect sense for her to go all the way to the nomination and appeal to the superdelegates. Florida and Michigan may have new elections, which also argue for her staying in the race, even if it would be inconclusive to reintroduce those delegates (they obviously should not be seated otherwise).

Gauges of public opinion such as the Iowa Electronic Markets show Obama leading Clinton greatly. Even accounting for bias in the kind of people who would be participating in something like "IEM," it's strongly in favor of Obama. (Multiplied by 100 the values are more useful. They still can be compared against each other but are also an informal current estimate of probability of nomination.) The numbers are better to use than the graph, though the graph is very useful for quickly visualizing and assessing the situation. Users visiting the following site should check February as well as March results. You can see how things changed completely after the February 5 Iowa caucuses.


03/13/2008 Clinton 24.8 Obama 72.9

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/pricehistory/PriceH...

The graph is here. Note change after early February.

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_DConv0...


However, anyone who is awake knows it's much closer and Clinton is still in it (we are not Obama groupies blindly in love as well as naive). Here is a site listing the delegate counts.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/pr...

DLS: the choices are for HIllary to continue and continue to divide Dems (with the potential of dividing the race so much that McCain wins in Nov), or she exit the race and help pull the Dems together.

If she does want to stay in the race, that's her right (and I don't mean to take that awy from her), but there's always the cost to the Dem. party to consider and the consideration whether in the long run it will help or hurt not only her but the Dems' chance of regaining the WH this Nov.

Besides, I know you are rooting for that floor brawl between the Hillarity and Big O supporters in Denver at the convention- which I would love to buy ringside seats to watch. :)

P.S. I love your new name for me, "Stockster". Thanks!

Stockster (this is not a recording): There are two logical moments when Clinton must decide whether to remain in the race or to quit. She and her campaign are still viable; it's not like Huckabee's (which ended honorably but earlier than it did).

1. Pennsylvania elections (she needs to do as well as she did in Ohio);

2. The convention.

And,

#3, either before or after #1, would be a) Michigan and b) Florida having new elections. There's no assurance there will be a resolution to this problem, though. Also, it's debatable how much these states can actually change the prospects for either campaign (a reason not to bother with it at all; the states broke the rules and don't have any right to have their delegates seated, anyway).

Remaining in it until the convention is 100% viable if she is confident she has enough support by the superdelegates that she has a fair chance (let's say 40% or better probability) of becoming the nominee. Don't forget that one thing that could be done would be to twist Obama's arm at the convention into becoming the VP _if_ he began to slide in the weeks to come (before the convention). I'm not saying he will. After Super Tuesday I no longer have routinely said "the smart money remains with Clinton" (while I had said that, it was true; early gushing for Obama was speculative and typically naive and idealistic; much of it is to this day). Obama certainly is attractive as an alternative even though his program and hers are nearly identical. (As I've said, "it's just the packaging that's different.") There's a chance Obama could slip -- we don't know yet what may happen not only with both candidates but in this country or the world, events that would have influence on their campaigns (a war here, a disaster there, terrorism here or there).

DLS, I agree with you and your argument- Hillary has the right and good reasons to stay in the race. But my point is that Hillary, by staying in the race causes the Dems to become more fractured.

You're also right that Obama could slide (and he will at some point- that's just the nature of the fickle public and uncertain events, as you point out).

I'm not particularly upset with Hillary staying in the race- but as an Obama supporter (and for the good of the party) I wish she would step down. :) There aren't that many more contests.

I certainly agree with your observation that many of Obama's supporters were supporting Obama because they like him, not because they had read his positions (and the same, though perhaps not to the same extent) can be said of some Hillary supporters. My feeling is that once O is attacked (even without merit/basis) by Hill and Mc. then they will develop doubts and fly away. They don't have a strong foundation to withstand the assault that O is receiving (and the greater assault if he makes it to the general). Hmm... does that make sense?

hillary will not drop out. if hillary's goal is to be president, there's no need in her mind to drop out.

yes, she's destroying the party. no, nobody's going to convince her to drop out.

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