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The Keystone State As Clinton’s Last Stand

Posted by SHAUN MULLEN, TMV Columnist in At TMV.
Mar 7th, 2008 | Comments

I had wanted to wait until we got a little closer to the Pennsylvania primary on April 22 to discuss and diss a state in which I have lived, worked and traveled at various times for many years, but the mainstream media will soon be encamping there and I should get in my two cent’s worth before Wolf Blitzer starts interviewing shy Amish folk, brawny coal miners and flatulent cows.

The conventional wisdom is that the Keystone State is tailor made for Hillary Clinton.

This is because it has droves of blue-collar workers, an elderly population second only to Florida and a Democrats-only primary that does not allow same-day registration.

And you can bet that the oft mangled and misattributed observation by political guru James Carville that the state consists of Philadelphia in the east, Pittsburgh in the west and everything in between is Mississippi will be trotted out time and again.

But the CW has been taking a beating this election year and will again in Pennsylvania, and anyone who thinks that Clinton has the upper hand over Barack Obama is ignoring a few things:

* The substantial number of college students who have made up a big part of Obama’s base in other primaries.

* The ongoing trend in the affluent Philadelphia suburbs away from moderate Republicans toward liberal Democrats, which also favors Obama.

* Independent voters have flocked to Obama and there are nearly a million in Pennsylvania. They can change their registration until March 24.

* The Obama campaign’s superior grassroots organizing skills.

* The inability of the Clinton campaign, despite some rule-bending from Governor Ed Rendell, to put up a full slate for the state’s 188 delegates.

For what it’s worth, the most recent polls reflect the trends in other states such as Virginia and Wisconsin that seemed to favor Clinton but handed Obama enormous wins. Her wide lead in Pennsylvania polls has grown slimmer by the week and she now trails by a percentage point or two in a few polls.

Bill Clinton is glad handing in Philadelphia today, Hillary and Obama are expected to begin stumping across the state any day and both campaigns are expected to launch massive TV ad campaigns within the week.

Meanwhile, I took advantage of a mild and sunny day and took myself down into the dairy farm valley near my Eastern Pennsylvania mountain retreat to interview some Holsteins before Wolf could get to them.

These gals agreed to the very last cow that Pennsylvania will be Clinton’s last stand and that Obama will prevail by a healthy margin because he’s still got the moo-mentum.

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Amanda

It always amuses me when people who know nothing of Pennsylvania except for Philly, Lancaster, and Pittsburgh as tourist destinations make sweeping generalizations about the state. I grew up there and have a ton of extended family scattered across the eastern half of the state. When we talk about the campaigns, I get a variety of answers to the "who will you vote for" question. My dad's parents are Obama fans, my mom's dad is a big Clinton supporter, one of my many aunts is all about McCain. The blue-collar workers and retired men and women of Pennsylvania pay a lot more attention than pundits give them credit for and it's entirely possible that the huge college student population gives Obama the last bit of momentum he needs to swing PA into his column. I guess we'll all find out next month.

superdestroyer

Penn. has the second largest percentage of the population above 65 (15.6%) according to the census bureau. That group is overwhelmingly white, middle class, and has been a boom for Clinton.

Penn. is about 10% black which puts in the category of not enough blacks to really help Obama but enough exposure to blacks in cities like Philly to create a divide between black and white voters.

There is once again the rust belt question that hurt Senator Obama in Ohio. Also, New Jersey and New York went for Clinton.

Primaries help Clinton and closed primaries help Clinton.

There is enough factors to not give either side a huge advantage.

elrod

Obama can win PA if he goes about it different than elsewhere. I saw a diary on Kos about going town to town in Appalachian central PA. That's a GREAT idea. He needs to lessen suspicions about his candidacy in Appalachia. Don't bother with big rallies in Philly, State College and Pittsburgh until closer to the election. Start in Scranton and hold town hall meetings with voters. Go to Wilkes-Barre, Hazleton, Frackville, Williamsport, Lock Haven, DuBois, Altoona, Johnstown, Chambersburg, Uniontown, Harrisburg, York and Lancaster. Attend church there. Visit homes. Then go out to NW PA and take a bus ride from Erie on south to Pittsburgh. Finish with a nice big rally there. Then go to Allentown, Easton, Reading and the Lehigh Valley towns for more small town hall meetings. Finally, wrap it up in the wealthy suburbs and Philadelphia.

If he does this, he will break through the suspicion of him in Appalachia. He will show older voters that he's not some young punk with no understanding of the world. He will show he's no "black radical." He will show his in-depth understanding of health care and economic issues.

Will this give him a victory there? Maybe. But it will certainly prevent a major loss. And it's a good idea anyway because he continue doing the same thing in WV and KY afterwards.

JSpencer

Yes, it looks like PA's demographics will make it particularly interesting, and I'm glad it's primary doesn't lend itself to mischief making from the R's. Nice pic Shaun, very Atom Heart Motherish.

shaun

JSpencer:

I thought the same thing and, as a matter of fact, played that album last night for the first time in forever.

As it was, I chose the foto because the gal cows I spoke to were Holsteins.

DLS

Clinton just gave Obama a huge boost. One of her aides compared Obama to Ken Starr.

Kathryn

Just FYI, the Obama campaign has some 50 events scheduled in the general Philadelphia area for the next two weeks. The vast majority of these are voter registration drives that will register voters and provide forms for voters to change their registration. There are several events in the Main Line area, once a huge moderate Republican stronghold before moderates were driven out of the party.

I heard an interesting statistic on the radio, in PA only 7% of voters are registered independents. I would imagine that is due largely to the closed primary system. While this might seem to give Hiliary an advantage I have to wonder how many registered Democrats are true rust belt Democrats and how many are independent leaning. Plus how many registered Republicans are Rush dittoheads and how many are more interested in what works not what passes the litmus tests. Some of these Republicans have already switched their registrations and are not going to be big Hilary supporters, more may join them. Yes there are a lot of Older people, in Pa but there are a large number of college students and professionals in research and high tech firms who don't really like the anti-science tilt of the Republican party, but aren't huge fans of Hiliary either.

As the lady says "fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride."

DLS

"people who know nothing of Pennsylvania except for Philly, Lancaster, and Pittsburgh "

I've been lucky enough to have traveled throughout Pennsylvania, especially when i've lived in Maryland first, and a few years later, in Upstate New York and now in Iowa (traveling back to the Northeast when I can). I also went through Pennsylvania frequently when I lived in St. Louis. I had originally visited the state when I lived in Atlanta (a long road trip, but something I enjoyed doing).

I've mentioned this before when discussing Ohio -- a truly enormous state could be created by combining Ohio with Pennsylvania (whose common boundary merits revision, but that's a side issue here). Then New Jersey haters could consider with delight the states of Ohio-Pennsylvania and New York divvying up "the cask." (dividing and annexing New Jersey -- the Delaware & Raritan Canal would be the elegant solution, but the Hudson watershed boundary makes as much or more sense). Ohio-Pennsylvania would then be a sea-to-sea state with much more waterfront than just around Erie. ("From Toledo to Cape May")

* * *

"Nice pic Shaun, very Atom Heart Motherish."

In fact, the Piedmont (from the Fall Line west to the start of Appalachia) is some of the finest country not only in the USA but in the world. And yes, progressive rock does it (as well as so much else) justice.

The photo also reminded me of the Pennsylvania farm guide that I went out to my truck to get to check the title. ("The Joy of Farm Watching" -- here with me now) Much of the farming, of course, is on the Piedmont.

There's a related Web site on line.

http://www.farmwatching.psu.edu/

Also, if you are "inspired" by the view in Shaun's photo, go to the Top of the 80s Restaurant in Hazleton sometime and see the view from there. Just go see it.

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