Poll: Clinton Takes Lead In Texas Democratic Primary And Among Late Deciders

A new Zogby poll has good news for Senator Hillary Clinton and fits into some of the other polls that suggests the prevailing political conventional wisdom may have to be tossed out again: it shows Clinton narrowly taking the lead in Texas and winning over still-deciding voters.

The race in Ohio remains deadlocked:

On the strength of some strong campaigning in Ohio and Texas, Democrat Hillary Clinton of New York has retaken a narrow lead over rival Barack Obama of Illinois in Texas and has dead-locked the race in Ohio, a new Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle survey by Zogby International shows.

The telephone surveys show Clinton had a second consecutive good day, and now leads Obama 47% to 44% in Texas. The two are tied at 44% in Ohio. It is notable that 7% in Texas and 8% in Ohio said they were yet unsure about who to support in the Democratic Party race, even at this late moment. The surveys also show support is somewhat soft in the race, and could still shift in the waning hours.

Other polls also have provided good news for Clinton.

Clinton’s rebound in the polls coincides with her decision to go after Obama on the national security issue via ads. She also sharpened her rhetorical attacks, and Obama was largely playing defensive for several days. Enough polls have now shown that the numbers are starting to trend in Clinton’s direction to indicate that the political obituaries about Clinton’s campaign may have been premature.

But several wild-cards remain.

One is that polls this primary season have often been accuracy-challenged. But in the case of Clinton’s campaign, there is now a trend. Read these. But it’s extremely close.

One poll that gives Obama a slim lead notes that his Big Mo is now Big Slo with Clinton making inroads, including among independent voters.

A lot will depend on each campaign’s ground operation on Election Day. Stellar ground operations that are below the media and blogosphere radar have to be factored in. In past primaries it was generally noted with surprise that Obama brought a lot of new voters in who weren’t previously considered seriously in the mix. Will he this time?

And what impact has the call by conservative talk show hosts had on urging Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary to stop Obama had? Earlier in the campaign, news stories said many GOPers would cross over to vote against Hillary, as payback against the Clintons. But Rush Limbaugh and others have now been steadily urging Texas GOPers to vote for Clinton to halt Obama’s seeming advance. Will that be a factor?

But Zogby’s data shows that the key factors for Clinton’s seeming 11th hour rebound seems to be the toughening of campaign rhetoric and adept use of tough political ads, regaining her base and pickup some additional support as some Obama support has seemingly wavered. Zogby writes:

In Ohio, there have been no dramatic changes. This has always been close, except that now the undecideds are up to 8%, and the increase has come from the Obama column. It looks like a combination of questions raised about Obama’s capacity to lead the military, his stance on NAFTA, and questions about ethics have shaved a few points off his support.

Clinton has not closed the deal yet, but she has picked up some additional support among women and older voters. Obama continues to lead in the big cities of Ohio, and it looks like Cincinnati is keeping him in this game. He has been working it hard, and has received the endorsement of the mayor there. But Clinton has opened up a big lead among Catholics – which, translated, means white ethnics.

In Texas, Hillary had a slight lead in Sunday’s polling, which was enhanced by her lead in Monday’s polling, and those are the figures combined into the two-day rolling average of our poll. How did she pull ahead? She clearly increased support among white men and Hispanic men, mostly based on her late campaign focusing on her fitness for military command. She also enjoys strong support from white and Hispanic women. One thing that could prove significant is that much of Obama’s recent advances in the Houston area seem to have dissipated.

Among those in Texas who were just making up their minds in the last few days, Hillary now leads by four percent, which pretty much tells the story.

My DD’s Todd Beaton notes these trends and how it shows a “dramatic” upturn for Clinton in Texas and writes:

Interesting that it would hone in on the “fitness for military command,” seeming to imply, essentially, that the 3AM ad worked (although she was questioning Obama’s fitness on that measure on several fronts.) The idea that the ad would move male voters is especially unbelievable since it was widely considered a big ole dog whistle to women. And this Slate piece found that the ad only worked among those who were pre-disposed to supporting Clinton, i.e. it had no persuasive value. So, I’ll be curious to find what it was exactly that moved men to Hillary in the final analysis because I still doubt if the 3AM ad did her much good.

Ultimately, Clinton’s late surge is due to, well, late-deciding voters breaking for her.