Massachusetts held it’s long awaited Senate primary Tuesday in the race to succeed John Kerry, who resigned to become Secretary of State in early February.
Contrary to expectations, it was the Democratic race that had appeared to wrap up pretty early in the campaign, as veteran Congressman Ed Markey beat his House colleague, Steve Lynch, 57-43%.
What didn’t end early on was the acrimony, and most of it was based on ideology. Markey, a member of the House Progressive Caucus, has sat on the Commerce Committee nearly his entire tenure, and has been a solid liberal. His focus has been environmental measures (he chaired the Select Committee on Global Warming), but has also taken the lead on guns, and regulations of the television industry. Lynch has been among the most conservative of northern Democrats.
In particular, Markey called Lynch out on his opposition to abortion and the Affordable HealthCare Act. Lynch responded that he wouldn’t seek to overturn Roe vs. Wade and called the healthcare bill flawed.
After the bombing, Lynch sought to highlight the Boston tragedy by attacking Markey’s votes on Homeland Security (he knew the family of 8 year old Martin Richard), but Markey pointed to his own efforts as a member of the Homeland Security Committee.
The discord may have done good for Markey, who after 37 years in Congress, has lacked serious competition since his first primary for Congress in 1976, which he won a crowded primary with 22%. It showed. The Democratic establishment got behind him early, but many of the same folks were puzzled by his slow start. Even his website was little more than the name initially.
For Lynch, there was irony in timing of the Senate primary. He won his hotly contested primary on the evening of 9/11/01.His Senate loss came in the aftermath of the Boston bombing. But he carried most of his area (“Southie” and Brockton) handily and promptly endorsed Markey.
The Republican race wasn’t pre-ordained. The party nominated
Gabriel Gomez, a 47 year old businessman,who emerged with a bigger than expected 51% win in a three way. His chief rival, ex-U.S. Attorney Patrick Sullivan and for Democrats, the prospect of running against him was gleeful. He was deeply tied to Mitt Romney, who took a 33% thumping in his home state last year, and was viewed as too conservative to win.
Gomez has an impressive background. A Latino with Columbian roots, Navy Seal, and perceived centrist who completed the Boston Marathon about an hour before the bombings. I the aftermath of the Boston bombings, many saw Sullivan’s law background as an asset but voters may’ve preferred Navy Seal.
Gomez also boasts of being an outsider. He hopes to hold Markey’s long tenure against him and notes that the state sometimes has proclivities for electing non-politicians. Perhaps. Both faced opponents with baggage, and neither won by much. But Weld and Romney won the Governorship, which is far different from the Senate. Aside from Brown’s brief tenure, no Republican has represented the “Bay State” in the chamber since 1972. The House delegation has been Republican-less since 1996.
And while the longevity argument may hurt in other states, the “Bay State” sent Ted Kennedy and John Kerry to Washington for 50 and 30 years respectively (neither finished their terms obviously). Beyond that, Gomez must brush up on his debating skills, which have made even Republicans cringe.
Gomez may try emulating Jim Ogonowski, a fellow vet who almost beat underwhelming Nikki Tsongas for a vacant Congressional seat in ’07. But if the tone of his victory speech is any indication, Markey won’t be inattentive and will hustle.
lf Gomez is to have any chance at catching Markey, his best bet would seem to be central and eastern Massachusetts, near the Cape, towns that are mixed if not slightly GOP leaning(Peabody, Plymouth, Middleborough, Rockland, Tewksbury,etc).
I compared the Markey/Lynch primary to one in Oregon in late 1995, which may be a correlation to the general — then and now. It was for the seat that Bob Packwood had vacated his seat amid sexual harassment allegations. The Democratic primary to succeed him featured two ambitious House Democrats, Ron Wyden, and his junior colleague Peter DeFazio. Both were solid liberals but DeFazio portrayed himself as sort of a populist, for the people guy (driving a ’63 DeSoto).
Lynch was not nearly as liberal as Markey but, as a union man armed with many labor endorsements, was able to call himself an “in the trenches” kind of guy. Wyden meanwhile was embarrassed by not knowing the price of milk or being unable to identify Yugoslavia on a map (the unrest in Bosnia was at it’s height that very month).It was the fact that he wasn’t a liberal that may have done him in, but the comparison is that Markey needed to be roughed up by Lynch and, like DeFazio, helped get Markey back on his game.
Which brings me to a general election comparison. Wyden faced Oregon Senate President Gordon Smith, who seemed to have momentum. But January 1996 was exactly the time of the budget shutdown, and that presented just enough of an opening for Wyden to sneak through, by 1%.
Gomez has already begun using the “career politician” theme against Markey. And candidates matter. But climate does too.
President Obama, whom Gomez actually backed in ’08, is wildly popular in Massachusetts and more to the point, Republicans, let’s just say, are not. Further, with Newtown likely to factor in (Boston media provides some coverage to the town), Gomez had told Governor Patrick that he supports Obaam’s proposals on gun control and is calling for consensus. He is pro-life, though says he considers Roe vs. Wade, settled law.” And Markey is already hammering Gomez for backing a proposal that Democrats say could compromise the future of Social Security.
It also seems Markey seems to have recovered some stride in debates while Gomez was said to struggle by reverting back to his military background.
Markey has already represented a fair amount of eastern Massachusetts in his nearly four decades (and four remaps). Turnout may matter, as by the end of June, many of Massachusetts college students will have gone home for the summer.
Some Republicans hope for similarity in Scott Brown from 2010. But he won by running against something (helped also by an
opponent who felt she didn’t need to campaign). After he won, Republicans rightfully said if they can take a seat there, they can do so anywhere. But Brown won by running against something and by 2012, voters again returned to the belief that party mattered more than personal popularity. And while Republicans cite Brown Democrats are more than happy to invoke Romney, labeling Gomez, “Mitt Romney Jr.”
Michael Dukakis said, “It’s going to be a very tough next seven weeks and we’ve got to take it very seriously” and that is true. But if Republicans can win here and now, Democrats all across the country need to be beyond fearful of what the future may bring.