Poll: Republican McCain Would Beat Democrats Obama Or Clinton

I don't think it's time for any of the candidates to worry about these polls. We are still pretty far from November. The Democrats haven't even chosen a nominee yet.

ChrisWWW I still say it wont matter. McCain doesn't have a prayer in a contest vs. Obama.
1 week ago

Nor would it seem that McCain has much to worry about your prognosticating ability either.

Haha, I still don't think McCain has a chance. That's partly why I think these polls are wrong.

How many people in the general public know that McCain wants us in Iraq for 100 years? How many people are going to be excited about McCain after seeing him in a debate with a man about half his age? What's McCain going to do about health care?

Right now, the idea of the November election is just too abstract for most voters. No wonder it's basically 50/50 at this point. Just ask Hillary and Rudy about the validity of polls from 9 months ago.

I'd also point out that the Democratic primaries are pulling in about twice the voters as the Republican primaries. That seems like a valuable gauge of excitement.

I agree with ChrisWWW about the contrast that will be obvious between McCain and Obama (if he's the Dem nominee). It's not just age, either; McCain is likely to come off as brittle and very touchy in comparison.

But the biggest problem for McCain, I think, won't be his Democratic opponent, whether it's Obama or Clinton. Instead, I think the more vocal radical elements in his party (i.e. people like Willie Cunningham) are going to be much harder for him to overcome in a general election. They don't have to support him (and it looks like they won't), but they are definitely a part of today's GOP. That won't play well, I don't think, on the national stage.

Fine, fine, there's only one poll that counts and all that.

In the meantime, I trust you won't mind if I keep a clipboard of some of the posts otherwise appearing?

By the way, Joe, it takes a brave soul to offer a pot of coffee at a two-week long love-in. Good for you.

I saw this poll as well and was rather surprised by it because I would swear I heard poll results just a couple weeks ago that were also national and had Obama with a slight lead or polling even with McCain. We will have to wait and see.

One other thought is that the national campaign of course doesn't have any continual buildup like the primary season does. There's no building momentum slowly by devoting resources wisely; i.e, Iowa and later caususes that the Clinton team forgot, which has been critical for Obama. Think of all the African American leaders who endorsed Clinton early on until they saw he had an actual chance to win.

I would also suppose there are a number of currently bitter Democratic supporters of Obama or Clinton who right now would vote McCain when their candidate is taken out of the question, but that those people will move back towards their party in a couple months. In the same way that about 3 weeks ago some conservatives were willing to vote for Mao Ze Dong over McCain, given the choice, many seem to be accepting McCain now as the lesser of two evils (from that perspective).

I agree, it is too far away. Anyone remember Kerry's and Dukakis' insurmountable leads.

Polimom...I would disagree, as McCain has been maverick enough to buck vocal radical elements in his own party. Would Obama be maverick enough to buck, for example, the "CodePink" people who tried to shut down the recruiting station in Berkeley, and who are "definitely a part of today's" Democratic Party?

Also, Obama will have a problem with the Hispanic vote, as we have already seen...McCain, because he was willing to challenge the anti-immigrant GOP tide, is the only GOPer with access to this bloc...one of the most important in this election.

Reasons not to write off McCain. Who knows what will happen in the election, though?

Pacatrue said: "In the same way that about 3 weeks ago some conservatives were willing to vote for Mao Ze Dong over McCain, given the choice, many seem to be accepting McCain now as the lesser of two evils (from that perspective)."

This is a good point.
McCain has doubtless sacrificed a goat to Satan last weekend to thank him for founding the New York Times...which rallied conservatives to his defense with its ill-reported hit piece.

But GOPers might have reason to remember their resentment of McCain come the election, and stay away in droves.

There are so many variables in play this election.

Would Obama be maverick enough to buck, for example, the "CodePink" people who tried to shut down the recruiting station in Berkeley, and who are "definitely a part of today's" Democratic Party?

Why would he "buck" them?

Also, Obama will have a problem with the Hispanic vote, as we have already seen...McCain, because he was willing to challenge the anti-immigrant GOP tide, is the only GOPer with access to this bloc...one of the most important in this election.

Remember that McCain has done a semi flip flop on his own "amnesty" legislation, saying in a debate he wouldn't vote for the bill he helped write with Kennedy. He might be the only GOPer with "access" to that "bloc" but it's an uphill climb I think.

ChrisWWW said: "He might be the only GOPer with "access" to that "bloc" but it's an uphill climb I think. "

I think you are right. But then McCain doesn't have to win the Hispanic vote to win the election. One of Rove's insights re: George W. in 2004 was that he just had to reduce the Democrat lead in this bloc to single digits to win the election. (Assuming, of course, that conservatives like the evangelicals stay with McCain...which can't be taken for granted at all.)

"Why would he "buck" them?"

Because, as Polimom noted re. the distasteful elements of the GOP, they won't "play in Peoria". If you recall that story...the Berkley Council realized it had gone too far in its support of Code Pink...which ignited a firestorm the Democrats did not want. Reid was even forced by a reporter to comment on, and repudiate, the Code Pink actions outside the Senate.

It's sorta like Clinton and his "Sister Souljah" moment. Yah, McCain has flip-flopped. But he has a demonstrated record of bucking GOP powerbases. Would Obama be willing to do the same?

Good job on touting like one of maybe two or three polls on the planet that have positioned McCain as beating Obama, no less even being close...

That's great! That's a great job, there.

McCain and Obama really bring out the differences in the center of the political world. It seems one can be a centrist, favoring middle-ground policies; independent, favoring policies as they see them, regardless of political inclination; and moderate, which tends to be more of a diplomatic thing.

McCain is an independent. He has a solid track record of doing what he thinks is right regardless of the party, and has a proven record of crossing the aisle. He's not 100% of course, but about as close as anyone in the field.

Obama is most certainly moderate in his opinions. He is more a democrat than mccain is a republican, but he talks so well from the middle that it's hard not to find something to like in what he says (as a devil's advocate, I always find reasonable people the most difficult ones to debate with because, well, at heart, it's hard to disagree with reasonable sounding things).

So, people, take your pick, and independent, or a moderate. I could only pray for such a lovely choice. As close as we'll get to a third party run for a while.

Bellisaurius said: "So, people, take your pick, and independent, or a moderate."

Yes, this is a Moderate election for sure.

I would bet the candidate who loses will be the one who goes most off "Moderate Message"...with a "macca" moment (the RNC is already holding seminars to promote what it called "message discipline" in this regard)...or a surrogate making a "mercenary" comment about US soldiers (like Arkin in the Washington Post) or some such.

Polimom is right, I think, in that the public tolerance for such things is at an all time low.

"He has a solid track record of doing what he thinks is right regardless of the party"

With all due respect bellisaurius, what bull!

"McCain is once again abandoning any pretense of consistency and integrity, and is now willing to say literally anything to win." according to the Carpetbagger report. Here is the top 11 McCain flip-flops (as of 2006), including shamefully, his abandoning of ideals on torture, a subject he certainly knows about.

Looking at the list:
1. Falwell: I'll spot you that one.
2. Tax Cuts: There's a mistake of cause and effect here. McCain opposed the cuts because he's a deficit hawk. Without spending cuts, he's not a fan of tax cuts. Consistent.
3. Same as falwell in a sense. However, I dond't think making dirty allies is the worst thing in the world. A sense of realpolitick in fact. So, in hindisght, number 1 and 3 are consistent.
4. McCain's position on campaign finance was a gentleman's agreement. As Obama has declined it, so as mcC. The law isn;t a suicide pact.
5. Norquist and mccain shouldn;t have been at loggerheads in the first place. See #1 and 3.
6. They cherry picked that quote. Note that BJ U dropped their dating ban.
7. What's the problem? He thought that gas had risen to a point where ethanol became more useful. This is more inline with his michigan "the jobs aren;t coming back" quote.
8. Here you've got an apology from the guy. He said he was sorry he didn;t speak out about it. How many candidates do mea culpas on something like that?
9. He takes the federalist position, if you read the quote. That one allows for a person to have some room to talk about abortion that way.

While I realize each of these is a small clip on a person who campaigns on a "straight talk" line, I haven't seen anyone better so far, so he wins on that ground. This is politics. No one's perfect, and I'm not about to start demanding it. You take the person who gets you the closest to your ideal as you can.
9.

Poli: 'I agree with ChrisWWW about the contrast that will be obvious between McCain and Obama (if he's the Dem nominee). It's not just age, either; McCain is likely to come off as brittle and very touchy in comparison.'

Excellent point. If Hillary is having hot flashes over Obama's teflon demeanor, McCain cd go postal.

Here I think is the flaw in your thesis: "McCain is the first Republican in many years who can go beyond just appealing to the GOP’s base."

Since when does McCain appeal to the GOP base? The winning equation, as always, is:

2*(your base/their base) + (your share of swing voters/their share)

McCain is competitive, as you state, with the second part of the equation, but he is GOP poison for the first half. If a large chunk of the GOP base will stay home (likely), the democratic nominee will have a huge advantage in a year where their base is energized. Add a sluggish economy and you have to like ANY Democrat's changes (rightly or wrongly).

Is it brittle if the other guy stabs you in the back? from http://obama.senate.gov/letter/060206-sen_obama...
It looks like McCain got angrier than he needed to, and Obama comes off as more partisan. Take your pick which one seems worse. It looks like they kissed and made up, but this was probably the hardest part of it:

"Dear Senator Obama:

I would like to apologize to you for assuming that your private assurances to me regarding your desire to cooperate in our efforts to negotiate bipartisan lobbying reform legislation were sincere. When you approached me and insisted that despite your leadership's preference to use the issue to gain a political advantage in the 2006 elections, you were personally committed to achieving a result that would reflect credit on the entire Senate and offer the country a better example of political leadership, I concluded your professed concern for the institution and the public interest was genuine and admirable. Thank you for disabusing me of such notions with your letter to me dated February 2, 2006, which explained your decision to withdraw from our bipartisan discussions. I'm embarrassed to admit that after all these years in politics I failed to interpret your previous assurances as typical rhetorical gloss routinely used in politics to make self-interested partisan posturing appear more noble. Again, sorry for the confusion, but please be assured I won't make the same mistake again."

This is just the media wanting to play up the horserace aspects of the election to keep people tuned in. SEnator Obama will win every state that Kerry won in 2204 along with winning Missouri, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa and possibly Virginia. There is no state that McCain can take out of the Democratic column.

McCain is going to lose in a rout. The bigger question is whether the Democrats get 60 seats in the Senate.

I'm not going to place any stock in polls when it comes to who the public likes better. Let's wait until each party makes their nomination and have a couple weeks under our belts watching the two of them go at it. Unless Hillary is clearly knocked out of the race next week, then we can start mulling over the polls.

I'm much more interested in this:

"The Arizona senator is viewed favorably by 61 percent of all registered voters, including a plurality of Democrats."

I'd like to know what the figure is for Obama and Clinton. I tried going to the link for the actual poll but got an error message. I'll see if I can find it somewhere else.

McCain has an 82.3% lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union. How many independents really appreciate a hard core right-to-life position? From NPR

"I have stated time after time after time that Roe v Wade was a bad decision, that I support a woman — the rights of the unborn — that I have fought for human rights and human dignity throughout my entire political career," McCain said. "To me, it's an issue of human rights and human dignity."

And while now former candidate Fred Thompson, the former senator from Tennessee, won the coveted endorsement from the National Right to Life Committee, McCain's voting record on the issue is just fine, says David O'Steen, the group's executive director.

"He's been very consistent; he hasn't changed his position," O'Steen says. He says that his group has supported McCain in every one of his senate races. "We've always considered him pro-life," he says.

Nancy Keenan, president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, says her group has always considered McCain pro-life as well. And it's not just abortion, she says.

"He voted against family planning, he voted against the freedom of access to clinic entrances — that was about violence against women in clinics," Keenan says, adding, "He voted against funding for teen pregnancy-prevention programs, and making sure that abstinence only was medically accurate. This is very, very extreme."

Once the general election gets underway and positions and votes like the ones cited in this article come to the surface to be added to his unwavering support for the war in Iraq he might start losing those independents.

A CBS poll covering the same period found Obama with a 10 point lead over McCain. Honestly, it's hard to know what the race is like at this point. But here are ten things to watch for:

1) The age gap will get huge play. And it will be about generational change and turning the page, as Andrew Sullivan has often argued. Older voters will support McCain more because of his age, because of latent racism, and because of familiarity. Obama will turn on younger voters just as he has in the primary.

2) Both sides must make nice with their bases. But this will be easier for Obama than McCain. Obama will have no problem winning over Latinos, with the excpetion of bigots like Adelfa Callejo in Texas. I think Obama will do great with white women Democrats as well. There's nothing appealing about John McCain to a pro-choice feminist women. McCain has real ideological divisions to address in his party. While conservatives rallied to him after the NYT story, they were angry that he through Bill Cunningham under the bus. There will be plenty more incidents like this, and the Limbaugh types will constantly complain about McCain's "self-righteousness." Also, evangelicals simply won't put in the volunteer legwork for McCain that they did for Bush.

3) The Iraq war will be paramount, but it will look different by November. I suspect the debates over the war will change a bit depending on circumstances. Things can get much worse at any moment in Iraq, or political developments could emerge. It is so volatile - with Turkey, Sadr, intra-Sunni divides, etc. - that nobody knows what it will look like in the fall. Obama will, however, be able to remind those opposed to the war that John McCain is, in fact, a major imperialist and neo-conservative on the war. But McCain's presence and history gives him an edge on military matters.

4) The economy is heading for the toilet. I don't believe for a second that voters support McCain over Obama on the economy. There's nothing to support with McCain because he doesn't pretend to have much of a plan. If the recession gets really bad, McCain's chances will get dimmer and dimmer. He needs to hope the economy bottoms out soon and then rebounds by the fall.

5) Both candidates will be charged with hypocrisy. In a battle between reformers, both sides will take hits on their inconsistent record on lobbyists, ethics, etc.

6) Ugliness. McCain will take the high road, as he already has. But the 527s and surrogates will get very ugly. Expect serious "Muslim"-baiting and race-baiting.

7) Organization and money. This is Obama's greatest strength, actually. Remember, there are Senate and Congressional races too. The RNC has an advantage over th DNC. But the DSCC and DCCC have big advnatages over the RSCC and RCCC. And Obama has shown an ability to raise a ton of money and put together one of the best ground games in political history. Can McCain counter that? Without an army of evangelicals as in 2004 McCain will have a tougher time organizing activists for him. This could mean as much as 3 or 4 points in the end.

8) The center. This is battle between two politicians with reputation for cross-party appeal. I don't know who will win that battle in the end. But I suspect that if the war gets uglier or the economy really plummets, Obama will get the better of the crossovers.

9) Judgment vs. Experience. That's the dividing line as it was in the primary. But expect McCain to tout his judgment and honor, and Obama to bring up his bipartisan legislation on nukes and community work to beat the inexperienced charge.

10) The first black President. Stop and think about this for a minute. We might be on the verge of elected the first African American to be President of the United States. This was almost unthinkable just a decade or so ago. A lot of factors having nothing to do with race will likely affect the outcome of this election. But the prospect of the first black President will weigh heavily on voters' minds - as a wonderful inspiration or as something to be feared. Either way, this is history in the making.

The Ohio Poll from the U of Cincy says not so fast.