Chances of Republicans taking the Senate in 2014

Republicans need to pick up six seats to retake the majority they lost in 2006, and recent history suggests that the task is doable, if difficult. More concerning for Republicans, however, is whether they will again have to endure nasty primaries that produce either triumphant insurgents with limited appeal or establishment survivors who underperform with conservative voters in the general election. …WaPo

A big passel of Dems are resigning. Republicans may be universally unloved, but they have a nice (for them) electoral advantage next year. Trouble is, they’ve got candidates in places like Iowa, Michigan, and Louisiana they see as “less than desirable.” Certainly Steve King of Iowa fits that category, a real junker.

In contrast, look at the Dems.

…For Democrats, playing defense will be nothing new.
In November, they had to defend 23 of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs in 2012. They could afford to lose only four seats to maintain a majority, and several of their veterans retired after long runs representing conservative states.

But instead of losing ground, Democrats gained seats —which seemed unthinkable in March 2011 — by holding all 23 and picking off two from Republicans.

Moreover, in the past four elections, just two Democrats lost reelection bids, while 12 GOP incumbents fell. …WaPo

And Mitch McConnell, who’d love to be majority leader, is in trouble in his home state. He’s “running hard.” Which could make a fall even more painful. But is it possible?

…The much anticipated Democratic candidacy of actress Ashley Judd fizzled as she abandoned the race before it started. With Judd out, Democrats are turning to Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, 34, whose father was state Democratic chairman and a friend of former president Bill Clinton. …WaPo

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NPR had an interesting report this morning on DOMA and what its appearance in the Supreme Court is doing to Republicans. The Defense of Marriage Act is, of course, the the offspring of Republicans in Congress, specifically Republicans in the House. Not only is their counsel before the Court presenting a very weak, not to say embarrassing, case, but Republicans in the House are out-to-lunch or out-of-town 0r not-available when it comes to commenting on the Court case, much less when it comes to defending DOMA.

Fact is, Republicans need all the support they can to win in 2014 and suddenly the tide has turned against DOMA. Codgers over 70 and raging evangelicals just aren’t enough to guarantee a Republican win. So the silence is deafening.

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Actually, forget “ragin’ evangelicals”! Turns out evangelicals — some notable ragers, anyway — are calming down and perhaps changing their minds. Or are simply tired of being out-of-step with most of America. Check out the developments at Liberty University.

… In the last six or seven years, opposition to gay marriage has gone from a unifying ideology on Liberty’s campus to an issue that is tiptoed around by students and faculty members, and that no longer forms a major plank of the worldview shared by many young evangelical Christians. …Daily Intel

Cross-posted from Prairie Weather

         

5 Comments

  1. I refuse to entertain the possibility republicans could ever be rewarded with the Senate for all their crappy behavior. If this happens we should probably lower the voting age to 10 in order to increase the maturity of the electorate.

  2. The last time we had a mid-term election, there was a lot going on.

    The economy was still in the tank. The GOP leadership was still feckless. This new “Tea Party” thing came along which seemed to represent a sea change on the conservative side of things. The House changed hands. The Senate seemed in danger of doing the same. Obama’s goose was all but cooked.

    Two years later, the GOP snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. What should have been a cakewalk turned into a shellacking.

    Going into this mid-term election, things have changed quite a bit. The GOP establishment is feckless as ever, but the infusion of tea which appeared to be so refreshing at first has turned into a very bitter beverage indeed.

    Usually at this point, a second term President begins to be beset with scandal. Manufactured or genuine, the White House is at this point having to fend off attacks from all angles over their mishandling of (fill in the blank) incident. We seem to have already had that happen, and Benghazi fell rather flat as far as scandals go.

    If things continue as they have been, we’ll be looking at an unemployment rate in the 6 percent range by this time next year, and the Dow should be north of 15 thousand. “Obamacare” will be in more or less full effect, and our War(s) on Terror will be officially over.

    Barring a major scandal and/or national emergency, I’m not seeing how the GOP can get enough traction to take the Senate next year.

  3. the infusion of tea which appeared to be so refreshing at first has turned into a very bitter beverage indeed

    Indeed it has. As far a scandals go, I’m sure there are plenty of folks who would love to manufacture one if they thought they could get away with it.

  4. $1 bet with anyone here that the GOP takes it in the shorts in 2014. Their “rebranding” effort has only shown me that they have completely missed the entire issue of why they didn’t do well in 2012. They may hold onto seats in the house due to redistricting, but not in the Senate. I fully expect to continue to hear more and more GOP players shoving their foots in their mouths on a regular basis.

  5. I am trying to look at this objectively. Most Americans seem to agree that the left appears to have the moral high ground on almost all issues being discussed in politics today.

    Except — those that surround debt and unfunded liabilites. Quite a few Americans are beginning to take notice of what some republican governors are doing in an attempt to get their fiscal houses in order.

    I would ask; is there a perception that the Federal government might be losing the moral arguement in favor of spending and debt? If so, will that be enough to sway some Senate seats in 2014? I don’t know, but the relatively narrow topic of taxes played a big part in the 2012 elections.

    If many of the social issues and the ending of wars that the most of us (left, moderates and some on the right) support are resolved in the next year and a half, the 2014 election may be focused more narrowly, and I wonder if that might favor Republicans. Hard to speculate.

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