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Political Tea Leaves: Clinton Has Not Vowed To Continue Campaign Beyond March 4 »

Mind the Gap — It’s Closing

Posted by MICHAEL STICKINGS, Assistant Editor in Politics.
Feb 22nd, 2008 | Comments

New poll numbers, via The Plank: “The new ABC News/WaPo poll has Clinton ahead of Obama by 7 in Ohio and 1 in Texas. She had double-digit leads in both states last week. Meanwhile, Rasmussen has Clinton up three in Texas (last week he had the New York senator up 16).”

RealClearPolitics is a good resource for state-by-state polling. Here are Ohio and Texas. The trend in both states is clear: Obama is closing the gap in dramatic fashion. Note, too, that ABC News/WaPo has Clinton up by just one point in Texas.

Clinton continues to have a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania, which will hold its primary two weeks from today, but the trend is the same there as in Ohio and Texas: Obama seems to be catching up.

Elsewhere, Obama is up by ten in North Carolina, another fairly big state that hasn’t been getting much attention (because it is expected to go for Obama and because Clinton has been ignoring it, like so many other states).

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Davebo

It's a safe bet Senator Clinton is wishing Texas and Ohio were voting this week.

DLS

Ohio and the Clinton-Obama choice was on NPR this morning. Part of the narrowing may be attributed to what the Clinton supporter reminded us about what is likely with Obama: the bandwagon effect. ("Momentum" is imprecise.)

elrod

Pennsylvania is not two weeks from today. It's on April 22. And after March 4 is Mississippi and Wyoming, which will undo any possible delegate loss on March 4.

elrod

DLS,
The bandwagon effect occurs in every race. It's happened to the GOP with McCain. It happened in 2004 with Kerry. It's the inevitable rallying of voters happy with all the choices to clear winner. Primary voters want to get this over with.

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