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Political Tea Leaves: Clinton Has Not Vowed To Continue Campaign Beyond March 4

Despite trial balloons that the Hillary Clinton campaign might go after 2008 Presidential nomination rival Barack Obama’s pledged delegates and put a full-court-press on collecting Superdelegates if she fizzles out in the March 4 primaries, Mrs. Clinton now has some political pundits abuzz with a new twist: she reportedly avoided vowing to keep her campaign going after March 4.

And in the the world of “we’re going to the end!” politics that is a development that needs to be watched (she can always clarify that). The Boston Globe:

In appearances on the three broadcast network morning shows today, Clinton did little to rebut that interpretation. Asked directly whether she would soldier on, no matter what happens in the make-or-break primaries in Ohio and Texas on March 4, she refused to say.

“I don’t make predictions,” she said on NBC’s “Today” show.

On “The Early Show” on CBS, however, she did deny that her closing remarks in the debate were a “valedictory” to her campaign, or that the fight was out of her.

The issue came up because contrary to most informed (which in this campaign is in many cases proving to be UNinformed as the conventional wisdom is repeatedly left red-faced) speculation, Clinton was going to have to and would go after Obama in the debate ferociously and repeatedly try to define and even provoke him.

Yet, in the end, there were minimum fireworks except for that now infamous zinger about plagiarism that fell embarrassingly flat. The plagiarism issue also self-destructed last night once bloggers and reporters found that parts of Mrs. Clinton’s final statement were similar to speeches by Bill Clinton and former Senator John Edwards — something some fierce Clinton supporters now insist is totally different than when Obama was caught using passages from a politico friend’s speeches… a classic case of “what’s good for the goose is not good for the gander.”

That plus noting that she was honored to be in the political race with Obama has therefore led some pundits to see it as her seeking a graceful way out and signaling that she won’t fight-to-the-end/be-a-sore-loser (choose the phrase that fits your political bias).

There are other reasons why some think Clinton may be rethinking battling until the last dog dies.

–Fighting until the last dog dies could mean political life after the convention could be a bitch since Clinton comeback prospects for 2012 would be soured if some Democrats felt she contributed to a splintered party that caused the Demmies’ defeat — or if Obama wins the Clinton faction would be on the outs for some time to come.

–Despite the dramatic final statement, most press accounts didn’t give the debate to Clinton. The Los Angeles Times said Obama “deflected” Clinton’s wake up call. CNN’s Bill Schneider said she didn’t slow Obama’s momentum. Reuters wondered whether Clinton’s big debate moment was her turning point or “swan song.” The San Francisco Chronicle said Clinton saw that her attack lines didn’t work and that she managed a draw, at most.

The funding disparity:

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama began February with about $10 million more to spend than rival Hillary Clinton as they prepared for a slew of primary and caucus battles, regulatory filings show.

Obama, an Illinois senator, yesterday reported that he had $19 million in cash that could be used for the fight for the nomination. Clinton had about $9 million and would have had even less if she hadn’t loaned her campaign $5 million.

So the tea-leaf reading about Clinton’s neglecting to vow to fight on after March 4th has some logic.

The official spin from Clinton’s press spokesman last night about Clinton’s final statement was…effusive:

Her strength, her life experience, her compassion. She’s tested and ready. It was the moment she retook the reins of this race and showed women and men why she is the best choice.

It could be a vote-changing moment.

But how could her statement — as dramatic and heartfelt as it was — show men and women why she is the best choice to sit in the Oval Office? Unless it is seen as the equivalent to Ronald Reagan’s “there you go again” to Jimmy Carter — but that dealt specifically with Carter’s speech and debate content, not Reagan’s emotions.

The debate was marked by excellent exchanges by Clinton and Obama on ISSUES — and presumably that could influence voters as well.

The bottom line: Her (non) statement sounds like Clinton is leaving the door open to at the very least re-evaluate.

It didn’t say she gave up going after Superdelegates or will quit after March 4.

But if her campaign has fundraising problems now, it will face bigger ones after March 4th if she doesn’t win solid victories in Ohio and Texas.

  • shaun
    Holy nightmare, Batman!
  • GeorgeSorwell
    Actually, Hillary showed a great deal of class as well as sense at the end.

    And I completely agree with Joe's comments about the cognitive poverty of conventional wisdom.
  • DLS
    The vultures in the media are rushing to join the bandwagon, or it may just be Obama bias that's showing. Also, proving or disproving a negative was used in a different way by some of the same people when it came to threatening to attack Iraq.
  • elrod
    Here's what nobody has picked up on. After her failed Xerox zinger, she was visibly uncomfortably. Her voice started shaking. I'm not talking about the "angry Hillary" look - which is actually a strong look - but an embarrassed and panicked look. Obama dominated the debate for the next 20 minutes. Then, at the end, she seemed to be at peace again as she gave her last response. I think she realized during the 20 minutes of horror that it was over. And she came to peace with it at the end by showing grace. No, it isn't over yet. But she's now at peace with it if she goes down on March 4. Her comments today, backing away from the stridency of the last week, show the new dynamic. She'll act herself - comfortably - over the next couple weeks. It might help her regain some support, though it probably won't be enough. And she'll look at the delegate math after March 4 and head back to the Senate.
  • elrod
    I meant "visibly uncomfortable."
  • kritt11
    Maybe, like Romney, she's evaluating the rise in Obama's momentum, and is steeling herself for the loss. It's encouraging that she may not stick at it until the bitter end and divide the party in two, by doing so. She may realize that he still might choose her for his Cabinet or as his VP. Bill may have counseled her that dividing the Democrats until August would hand McCain a victory in the general.
  • StockBoySF
    elrod, I understand what you're saying. I think she's struggling with coming to terms that she could lose. It was really interesting to watch her shift back and forth between barbs and graciousness.

    To add another layer to the observation, during the LA debate she seemed kinder and gentler. But then the next day her campaign went on the attack mode.

    So after watching her shifts last night I am interested to see if she will come out fighting in the next day or two.

    I don't think these two views (fighting and graciousness) are exclusive of one another. I think her performance in the Austin debate was genuine, but if she comes out fighting, it's because of advice/influence from her campaign folks (which may or may not include Bill).
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